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Notre Dame Football
What If Wednesday: Letting Weis Go After '08
May 24, 2017
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It all looked so promising at the beginning. From the boastful schematic advantage talk that seemed too good to be true (spoiler alert: it was) to the "9-3 isn't good enough" banner, it sure seemed like Notre Dame had found the right coach after Charlie Weis' first two seasons.
Then it all came crumbling down.
The Irish were just plain bad in his third year, some of it not his fault because of a roster he inherited from his predecessor. But it was bad enough, 3-9 and -148 point differential on the season, that there had to be the right kind of progress in year four for Weis to keep his job despite him signing a massive contract extension during his first season.
That's what most assumed would need to happen for Weis to stay, but he kept the gig before losing it a year later. For many it seemed like it was delaying the inevitable and it was. Weis was fired at the end of the 2009 season and Notre Dame just finished paying his buy out last year. The entire aftermath just makes you think what might have been if they had decided to pull the trigger in 2008.
We've already talked about 3-9. Weis received a mulligan for that debacle because of recruiting misses of Tyrone Willingham and the goodwill Weis earned from his first two seasons.
Then came 2008.
It was hard to know what to expect that season. With it being his fourth in South Bend, just about everyone in blue and gold was a player Weis recruited. From a rankings perspective, he had recruited well. Especially at the offensive skill positions.
He had Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, and 5 star freshman Michael Floyd. It was set up for the offense to be a 2.0 version of the prolific offense he had in year one and two. Unfortunately, it wasn't that simple.
The team started 4-1 and things were looking exponentially better than they were a year earlier, but the decline took hold at North Carolina. A Clausen interception ignited a comeback for the Tar Heels and began a 2-5 stretch to close out the regular season. 4-1 became 6-6.
It was a definite improvement over the previous season, but the way they lost to end the year was a sign of things to come. They were shutout by Boston College and then lost to Syracuse on Senior Day in what was, in my opinion, the most embarrassing loss of the last 25 seasons. They had no business losing that game against a coach who had already been fired and would never be a head coach again. Things only looked worse after they were beat down by USC in Los Angeles the following week.
Rumors were swirling. The guy who gave Weis that long extension was gone. Jack Swarbrick was the athletic director now and though he had given Weis the dreaded vote of confidence on November 13th, the Syracuse and USC losses made the topic of firing Weis relevant again.
We know now that Swarbrick stuck by Weis and the sputtering offense (66th in scoring) exploded during the Hawaii Bowl for 49 points. It briefly looked like Swarbrick had made the right decision.
2009 brought similar results and a four game losing streak to end the season led to Weis being let go a year later.
Hindsight is always 20/20 and if Swarbrick knew now what he knew then, I think he would have made the decision to let Weis go after 2008. What's one more year of a ridiculously large buyout if you know he isn't the right guy for the job?
Let's get to what might have have happened if Weis was let go. We can start with a massive recruiting loss.
I don't think there is any way that Notre Dame signs Manti Te'o if Charlie Weis was fired. Maybe I'm wrong and the next coach would have retained Brian Polian and Te'o still would end up Irish. I doubt it, though, considering how close it was at the end of the process. Chances are Te'o would have played for USC and against the Irish. That would have been a gut punch.
The big question would have been who they might have hired to replace Weis. Looking back on it, there weren't a ton of obvious choices the way Brian Kelly was a clear favorite for the job the following year. The other big jobs that were open that off season were filled by mostly coordinators.
Chip Kelly took over the Oregon job after being the OC there. Dabo Swinney was the interim at Clemson and won over their AD to get hired after his audition. USC OC Steve Sarkisian took over the Washington rebuild from Tyrone Willingham. Gene Chizik struggled at Iowa State, but his ties to Auburn helped him land the head job there. I don't believe that any of those guys would have been considered for Notre Dame at that time, although it would have been incredible foresight to latch on to Kelly or Dabo.
The one hot name that took over a program that off-season? This feels dirty saying this, but it was Lane Kiffin. He got the Tennessee job after they let Phillip Fulmer go. I don't see a way where Notre Dame would have thought he was a fit, but at the time many people felt he was a coach on the rise.
The coaches who filled vacancies weren't attractive choices to replace Weis and maybe that was part of the thinking for Swarbrick. Why fire a guy if you don't have someone that you know will be better to replace him?
In saying that, there were some names that stuck out as possibilities that could have left other jobs. Greg Schiano had built Rutgers from national embarrassment to a good program. I think he would have been on the list. Mark Dantonio might have been as well. He just beat Notre Dame earlier that season and was at the beginning of the process of making Michigan State into one of the top programs in the Big Ten.
Could Swarbrick have stolen Jimbo Fisher from Florida State while he was waiting in the wings for Bobby Bowden to retire? I assume the answer would have been no, but maybe I'm wrong.
One name that really stuck out that falls under the "so crazy that it just might work" category is Mike Leach. He was coming of an 11-2 season at Texas Tech and was consistently winning with material that was not close to the level of the power programs in the Big 12. This was well before the Craig James incident too. Leach at Notre Dame could have been a terrible match. Or maybe not.
Through all of that, the best candidate at the time may have been the guy who got the job a year later. Brian Kelly didn't have an undefeated season like in 2009, but he was 11-3 with 20 wins the two years before that (one at Central Michigan). At the very least he would have been a serious candidate.
One thing was abundantly clear: Weis was not the right guy for the job and I think most people realized it after the '08 season. Maybe everything happened like it was supposed to, though. They ended up landing a difference maker in Te'o and might have still ended up hiring Kelly, just sooner.
It all looked so promising after those first two years for Weis. Boy, were we all wrong.
Then it all came crumbling down.
The Irish were just plain bad in his third year, some of it not his fault because of a roster he inherited from his predecessor. But it was bad enough, 3-9 and -148 point differential on the season, that there had to be the right kind of progress in year four for Weis to keep his job despite him signing a massive contract extension during his first season.
That's what most assumed would need to happen for Weis to stay, but he kept the gig before losing it a year later. For many it seemed like it was delaying the inevitable and it was. Weis was fired at the end of the 2009 season and Notre Dame just finished paying his buy out last year. The entire aftermath just makes you think what might have been if they had decided to pull the trigger in 2008.
The backstory
We've already talked about 3-9. Weis received a mulligan for that debacle because of recruiting misses of Tyrone Willingham and the goodwill Weis earned from his first two seasons.
Then came 2008.
It was hard to know what to expect that season. With it being his fourth in South Bend, just about everyone in blue and gold was a player Weis recruited. From a rankings perspective, he had recruited well. Especially at the offensive skill positions.
He had Jimmy Clausen, Golden Tate, and 5 star freshman Michael Floyd. It was set up for the offense to be a 2.0 version of the prolific offense he had in year one and two. Unfortunately, it wasn't that simple.
The team started 4-1 and things were looking exponentially better than they were a year earlier, but the decline took hold at North Carolina. A Clausen interception ignited a comeback for the Tar Heels and began a 2-5 stretch to close out the regular season. 4-1 became 6-6.
It was a definite improvement over the previous season, but the way they lost to end the year was a sign of things to come. They were shutout by Boston College and then lost to Syracuse on Senior Day in what was, in my opinion, the most embarrassing loss of the last 25 seasons. They had no business losing that game against a coach who had already been fired and would never be a head coach again. Things only looked worse after they were beat down by USC in Los Angeles the following week.
Rumors were swirling. The guy who gave Weis that long extension was gone. Jack Swarbrick was the athletic director now and though he had given Weis the dreaded vote of confidence on November 13th, the Syracuse and USC losses made the topic of firing Weis relevant again.
We know now that Swarbrick stuck by Weis and the sputtering offense (66th in scoring) exploded during the Hawaii Bowl for 49 points. It briefly looked like Swarbrick had made the right decision.
2009 brought similar results and a four game losing streak to end the season led to Weis being let go a year later.
What might have been
Hindsight is always 20/20 and if Swarbrick knew now what he knew then, I think he would have made the decision to let Weis go after 2008. What's one more year of a ridiculously large buyout if you know he isn't the right guy for the job?
Let's get to what might have have happened if Weis was let go. We can start with a massive recruiting loss.
I don't think there is any way that Notre Dame signs Manti Te'o if Charlie Weis was fired. Maybe I'm wrong and the next coach would have retained Brian Polian and Te'o still would end up Irish. I doubt it, though, considering how close it was at the end of the process. Chances are Te'o would have played for USC and against the Irish. That would have been a gut punch.
The big question would have been who they might have hired to replace Weis. Looking back on it, there weren't a ton of obvious choices the way Brian Kelly was a clear favorite for the job the following year. The other big jobs that were open that off season were filled by mostly coordinators.
Chip Kelly took over the Oregon job after being the OC there. Dabo Swinney was the interim at Clemson and won over their AD to get hired after his audition. USC OC Steve Sarkisian took over the Washington rebuild from Tyrone Willingham. Gene Chizik struggled at Iowa State, but his ties to Auburn helped him land the head job there. I don't believe that any of those guys would have been considered for Notre Dame at that time, although it would have been incredible foresight to latch on to Kelly or Dabo.
The one hot name that took over a program that off-season? This feels dirty saying this, but it was Lane Kiffin. He got the Tennessee job after they let Phillip Fulmer go. I don't see a way where Notre Dame would have thought he was a fit, but at the time many people felt he was a coach on the rise.
The coaches who filled vacancies weren't attractive choices to replace Weis and maybe that was part of the thinking for Swarbrick. Why fire a guy if you don't have someone that you know will be better to replace him?
In saying that, there were some names that stuck out as possibilities that could have left other jobs. Greg Schiano had built Rutgers from national embarrassment to a good program. I think he would have been on the list. Mark Dantonio might have been as well. He just beat Notre Dame earlier that season and was at the beginning of the process of making Michigan State into one of the top programs in the Big Ten.
Could Swarbrick have stolen Jimbo Fisher from Florida State while he was waiting in the wings for Bobby Bowden to retire? I assume the answer would have been no, but maybe I'm wrong.
One name that really stuck out that falls under the "so crazy that it just might work" category is Mike Leach. He was coming of an 11-2 season at Texas Tech and was consistently winning with material that was not close to the level of the power programs in the Big 12. This was well before the Craig James incident too. Leach at Notre Dame could have been a terrible match. Or maybe not.
Through all of that, the best candidate at the time may have been the guy who got the job a year later. Brian Kelly didn't have an undefeated season like in 2009, but he was 11-3 with 20 wins the two years before that (one at Central Michigan). At the very least he would have been a serious candidate.
One thing was abundantly clear: Weis was not the right guy for the job and I think most people realized it after the '08 season. Maybe everything happened like it was supposed to, though. They ended up landing a difference maker in Te'o and might have still ended up hiring Kelly, just sooner.
It all looked so promising after those first two years for Weis. Boy, were we all wrong.
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