Photo by Rick Kimball/ISD
Notre Dame Football
The Bama Talent Gap
August 25, 2017
8,513
I'll admit it. I went into the Alabama-Notre Dame National Championship Game thinking that the Irish were being disrespected.
I knew that the Irish had caught some breaks to get to 12-0. That happens with most championship teams, though. I felt that the defense was good enough to keep it close and that at the very least they wouldn't be physically overmatched by Nick Saban's team. 10 points seemed like way too many to give to the Irish. In my mind it would be close and the Irish would have a chance at pulling off the upset.
It didn't take long to realize that that scenario wasn't going to happen. It was far more then Notre Dame not executing or being prepared for the moment. It was clear that there was a significant talent advantage between the two teams.
The Irish had some "dudes" in 2012. Especially on defense. Alabama simply had way more of them and at pretty much every position on both sides of the ball. Anyone who watched could see it.
Some of it had to do with development, but more of it had to do with acquisition. Alabama was at a different level with their recruiting than Notre Dame (and just about everyone else for that matter).
According to what SB Nation's Bud Elliott has dubbed the Blue-Chip Ratio, Alabama had signed a ratio of 70% of recruits that were ranked as 4 or 5 star prospects in the previous four recruiting cycles.
Notre Dame's ratio was 47%.
Why is the Blue-Chip Ratio important? No team over the last decade-plus that has had a ratio of less than 50% has won a national title. As Bud wrote, "Gene Chizik has a national title while Mark Dantonio and Gary Patterson do not." Talent matters and the more of it a coach has at his disposal, the better chance a coach has of winning the whole thing.
70 to 47 is a big disparity between the two and the difference is actually bigger in terms of raw numbers when you figure that Saban was consistently signing bigger classes. From 2009-2012 Alabama signed 71 blue chip prospects. Notre Dame had only signed 38.
After the game was over, all the talk centered around closing the gap between the two programs. Brian Kelly took part in a Town Hall with Tim Brown for Sirius/XM some time after the game and addressed how big the difference between the two programs was.
“When we really sat down as a staff and analyzed it, we’re a lot closer than many people think," Kelly proclaimed. "You look at the score and you look at the game, we were missing tackles and we weren’t fitting plays. We didn’t protect here or catch the ball there. We feel like, and again, we’re realistic. We’re probably more realistic than any fan. We believe we’re on the right track and we’re a lot closer than people believe.”
Maybe that was Kelly putting on a public face after the fallout from getting blown out, but they really weren't close to Alabama at that time. At all. And if we're judging strictly by wins and losses, Alabama has stayed at that same level while Notre Dame has moved a lot further away from where they were in 2012.
We know now that it wasn't the start of a great run at Notre Dame. They actually were forced to go through a reboot this off-season to fix some of the issues within the structure of Kelly's program.
But even with those issues, Notre Dame was able to bring in more raw talent than they had at that time through recruiting. It's been almost five years and they've signed five recruiting classes since that game.They have improved the talent level even if the results haven't been there on the field.
Currently the Irish are at 56% Blue-Chip Ratio and if you compare each position group on the team now to the groups on the 2012 team, they have improved the talent level at most spots.
The offensive line in particular stands out. The two deep is filled with former blue chip recruits while the 2012 line had Mike Golic, a lower ranked 3 star, starting at right guard. Someone like Hunter Bivin, the sixth or seventh offensive lineman on this current team, would have more than likely played in front of Golic. Trevor Ruhland is actually the only scholarship lineman on the team that was not a blue chip recruit.
They recruited well at tight end then and they have continued to do so today. Ditto at running back.
Quarterback has two former 4 star recruits now. They only had one, Everett Golson, then. There is more recruited talent at wide receiver too. In terms of improving the overall talent on offense, it can't be argued that Kelly and his staff have done their job at making it better.
On the other side of the ball, they have upgraded at corner significantly. The only former blue chip recruit was KeiVarae Russell and he was a converted running back. Despite not having a Manti Te'o on this current team, they have a deeper and more highly touted unit there as well with five blue chips.
It's at safety and defensive line where there has been a drop off. The only safety that was a 4 star recruit on the 2017 team is true freshman Isaiah Robertson.
Even with a different scheme on the defensive line with four instead of three down, they had a greater number of blue chips in '12. They haven't recruited as well as they did at that time and hopefully they are on the way to rectifying that.
If you look at the totality of the roster, then Kelly and his staff (only Harry Hiestand and Mike Elston remain from that time) have improved the talent level. The problem is that five years later, Alabama has been able to kept the gap just as wide.
Their Blue-Chip Ratio for 2017 is 80%. If this is a race then the Irish got faster, but didn't gain any real ground. That has to be frustrating to know almost five years after. Alabama keeps getting more talented and keep winning. Notre Dame still needs to do more work to close the gap between the two programs.
Can it be done? Urban Meyer did at Ohio State. They were at 52% ratio in 2012 and have leaped all the way up to 71% since then. It's possible for Notre Dame to achieve that level and it would sure help them get there if they won more with the talent they have.
Realistically if the Irish were to matched up again with Alabama this season, we could probably expect a similar result to what happened in the previous match-up. All Kelly can do until then is continue to work to close the talent gap so they'll be on much more even playing field the next time the two programs meet.
I knew that the Irish had caught some breaks to get to 12-0. That happens with most championship teams, though. I felt that the defense was good enough to keep it close and that at the very least they wouldn't be physically overmatched by Nick Saban's team. 10 points seemed like way too many to give to the Irish. In my mind it would be close and the Irish would have a chance at pulling off the upset.
It didn't take long to realize that that scenario wasn't going to happen. It was far more then Notre Dame not executing or being prepared for the moment. It was clear that there was a significant talent advantage between the two teams.
The Irish had some "dudes" in 2012. Especially on defense. Alabama simply had way more of them and at pretty much every position on both sides of the ball. Anyone who watched could see it.
Some of it had to do with development, but more of it had to do with acquisition. Alabama was at a different level with their recruiting than Notre Dame (and just about everyone else for that matter).
According to what SB Nation's Bud Elliott has dubbed the Blue-Chip Ratio, Alabama had signed a ratio of 70% of recruits that were ranked as 4 or 5 star prospects in the previous four recruiting cycles.
Notre Dame's ratio was 47%.
Why is the Blue-Chip Ratio important? No team over the last decade-plus that has had a ratio of less than 50% has won a national title. As Bud wrote, "Gene Chizik has a national title while Mark Dantonio and Gary Patterson do not." Talent matters and the more of it a coach has at his disposal, the better chance a coach has of winning the whole thing.
70 to 47 is a big disparity between the two and the difference is actually bigger in terms of raw numbers when you figure that Saban was consistently signing bigger classes. From 2009-2012 Alabama signed 71 blue chip prospects. Notre Dame had only signed 38.
After the game was over, all the talk centered around closing the gap between the two programs. Brian Kelly took part in a Town Hall with Tim Brown for Sirius/XM some time after the game and addressed how big the difference between the two programs was.
“When we really sat down as a staff and analyzed it, we’re a lot closer than many people think," Kelly proclaimed. "You look at the score and you look at the game, we were missing tackles and we weren’t fitting plays. We didn’t protect here or catch the ball there. We feel like, and again, we’re realistic. We’re probably more realistic than any fan. We believe we’re on the right track and we’re a lot closer than people believe.”
Maybe that was Kelly putting on a public face after the fallout from getting blown out, but they really weren't close to Alabama at that time. At all. And if we're judging strictly by wins and losses, Alabama has stayed at that same level while Notre Dame has moved a lot further away from where they were in 2012.
We know now that it wasn't the start of a great run at Notre Dame. They actually were forced to go through a reboot this off-season to fix some of the issues within the structure of Kelly's program.
But even with those issues, Notre Dame was able to bring in more raw talent than they had at that time through recruiting. It's been almost five years and they've signed five recruiting classes since that game.They have improved the talent level even if the results haven't been there on the field.
Currently the Irish are at 56% Blue-Chip Ratio and if you compare each position group on the team now to the groups on the 2012 team, they have improved the talent level at most spots.
The offensive line in particular stands out. The two deep is filled with former blue chip recruits while the 2012 line had Mike Golic, a lower ranked 3 star, starting at right guard. Someone like Hunter Bivin, the sixth or seventh offensive lineman on this current team, would have more than likely played in front of Golic. Trevor Ruhland is actually the only scholarship lineman on the team that was not a blue chip recruit.
They recruited well at tight end then and they have continued to do so today. Ditto at running back.
Quarterback has two former 4 star recruits now. They only had one, Everett Golson, then. There is more recruited talent at wide receiver too. In terms of improving the overall talent on offense, it can't be argued that Kelly and his staff have done their job at making it better.
On the other side of the ball, they have upgraded at corner significantly. The only former blue chip recruit was KeiVarae Russell and he was a converted running back. Despite not having a Manti Te'o on this current team, they have a deeper and more highly touted unit there as well with five blue chips.
It's at safety and defensive line where there has been a drop off. The only safety that was a 4 star recruit on the 2017 team is true freshman Isaiah Robertson.
Even with a different scheme on the defensive line with four instead of three down, they had a greater number of blue chips in '12. They haven't recruited as well as they did at that time and hopefully they are on the way to rectifying that.
If you look at the totality of the roster, then Kelly and his staff (only Harry Hiestand and Mike Elston remain from that time) have improved the talent level. The problem is that five years later, Alabama has been able to kept the gap just as wide.
Their Blue-Chip Ratio for 2017 is 80%. If this is a race then the Irish got faster, but didn't gain any real ground. That has to be frustrating to know almost five years after. Alabama keeps getting more talented and keep winning. Notre Dame still needs to do more work to close the gap between the two programs.
Can it be done? Urban Meyer did at Ohio State. They were at 52% ratio in 2012 and have leaped all the way up to 71% since then. It's possible for Notre Dame to achieve that level and it would sure help them get there if they won more with the talent they have.
Realistically if the Irish were to matched up again with Alabama this season, we could probably expect a similar result to what happened in the previous match-up. All Kelly can do until then is continue to work to close the talent gap so they'll be on much more even playing field the next time the two programs meet.
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