Luck of the Irish: Week One
Written by Mike Camarda
The ISD Vegas blog you never knew you wanted is back for 2018! Last year we had a respectable 56% win percentage in half a season of running this piece in 2017, and hopefully we’ll do even better this time around. With no further ado, here are your Week 1 picks:
Michigan -5 over Florida
It’s not that the suspensions will have a huge impact on the talent of the Gators, it’s more that it’s all one giant distraction. Some teams rally around that but most implode. I think Michigan is grossly overrated this year but I just find it hard to bet against Harbaugh having the most cohesive, prepared team in Week 1.
Alabama -300 over Florida State
Later in the season, I’m betting FSU. But Bama tends to dominate their week 1 openers… and usually against tough opponents. Take the moneyline, not the spread because the public is riding the Crimson Tide and driving the point spread to somewhere scary around 7 points.
Virginia Tech -4 over West Virginia
I just don’t buy WVU, ever. They only look good against bad opponents and terrible Big 12 defenses. Only question mark for Virginia Tech is their new QB but otherwise on paper the Hokies are MUCH better than the Mountaineers.
California vs North Carolina OVER 58.5 Points
I certainly don’t see Cal stopping North Carolina, and looking at UNC’s defense I’m not sure how I see them keeping Cal out of the 20s at minimum. This is the kind of game that will surely get into the 50s in terms of point total and then you just have to hope it’s close enough that they keep trading shots towards the end of the game instead of milking clock.
Clemson -38 vs Kent State
Clemson sometimes slogs through early season contests against inferior opponents, but in this case I expect them to be trying to send a message after getting disrespected in the pre-season polls. I wouldn’t be surprised if Clemson puts up 35+ points by halftime.
Temple +18.5 over Notre Dame
I think Notre Dame wins, possibly quite comfortably in the 21-28 point range. But 18.5 is a lot to lay against a very decent temple team, and is the kind of line prone to backdoor covers. Let’s say Notre Dame is up 38-14 in the 4th quarter with reserves in… a garbage time TD covers. It’s going to take both an elite day from the offense AND an elite game from a new, unproven defense to put the Irish in position to be out of range of such a cover. The public is heavy on ND right now, so I’m going to fade them and take the Owls plus the points.