Luck of the Irish: Week Three

Written by: Mike Camarda

The ISD Vegas blog you never knew you wanted is here for Week 3 after a stellar start to the season! Last week we went an impressive 4-2 bringing the season record to 9-3. Let’s keep this train rolling:

Clemson vs Louisville OVER 57.5

Clemson has an elite defense and an offense still finding its footing… the real reason to play the over is that Louisville’s defense gives up points to everyone, and late in the game it’s likely that Lamar Jackson will find a way to score points. Last year’s contest featured a combined 78 points.

Purdue +7 over Missouri

This is more Missouri being bad than Purdue being good, but if you haven’t been paying attention to the Boilermakers so far this season their offense is surprisingly potent under new head coach Jeff Brohm.

USC -14 over Texas

How bad is Texas? How good is USC? Each has one shaky week and one good week. Personally, I think Herman is a fraud with no ability to coach defense, and I expect USC to embarrass the Longhorns. However, this is by far my least confident pick of the week.

Stanford -8.5 over San Diego State

San Diego State is the kind of team Stanford should be able to bully in the trenches. Take the Cardinal to cover in a bounce back game.

Oregon -13 over Wyoming

I don’t know how this is a line. Oregon needs help on defense, but their offense is more than good enough to shred Wyoming. Wyoming got handled by 21 in a season opening contest against Iowa… Oregon is an awful lot better than Iowa, especially on offense which is how you run away from backdoor covers in the 4th quarter.

Notre Dame -11.5 over Boston College

Notre Dame has struggled against BC of late (even with good teams) and failed to cover in any of the last three contests. The smart play is the moneyline… taking ND to win (something they’ve done in each of the last 5 contests against the Eagles)… but where is the fun in that? I was able to lock in this game at ND -11.5 on the open, and the line has since moved to ND -13. The bottom line is that BC has a very bad offense and is unlikely to get north of 20 points in any scenario. I expect the offense to play hungry and get north of 30 after a poor showing against Georgia.