Luck of the Irish: Week Four
Written by Mike Camarda
The ISD Vegas blog you never knew you wanted is here for Week 4 after a stellar start to the season! Last week we went an impressive 4-2 bringing the season record to 13-5. Let’s keep this train rolling:
Wake Forest -5 over App. State
This line has wildly fluctuated since the open and you can find it anywhere from -4.5 to -6 depending on where you look. Advanced stats say to take App. State in this game but I really like what I’m seeing from Wake Forest right now and I expect them to handle their business.
Purdue +10.5 over Michigan
I’m riding the Boilermakers until they let me down. Purdue getting over a TD seems insane given how Michigan has played this year. For the second pick in a row, I’m going against advanced stats that I think over-value a team that was projected to be a lot better than they’re actually playing.
California +16.5 over USC
After last week’s debacle against the Longhorns at home, how can you pick USC to cover 2+ TDs against anyone? California should keep it close for at least 3 quarters, and 14+ points is perfect for a backdoor cover. Neither side of the ball is clicking for USC at a high level so far this year. However, readers beware that USC seems to always do the opposite of what I expect them to.
Florida -2 over Kentucky
Kentucky is being overvalued due to a win over South Carolina. Their offense has shown nothing but pedestrian results, which means they should struggle to crack 20 against Florida. Florida has been tested against talented teams, Kentucky has not. With the Gators’ QB situation appearing to settle down I expect them to take a step forward this weekend not a step back. They have a lot more talent on paper than the Wildcats.
North Carolina vs Duke OVER 59.5
Duke has a very good offense, and the combined scores of North Carolina’s three games have been 65, 92, and 76. In no game this year has Duke or UNC scored less than 30 points. It will take some serious hijinks not to hit the over in this contest… this would be my most confident pick of the week.
Notre Dame -3 over MSU
This is the toughest pick of the week for me. I think the Notre Dame defense might be a fraud, and MSU playing at home might be the perfect team to exploit Notre Dame’s weaknesses. The line opened at -4, and can be found at -3.5 or -3 at most books (online and off). DO NOT bet this line at -3.5… that half point can be a doozy. Ultimately, I’m picking Notre Dame to win because I simply think they’re going to want it more and will make enough big plays to pull it out. Notre Dame has more talent and a vastly superior statistical profile right now mainly because MSU has played a bunch of JV teams.