Wake Forest Scouting Report - Offense
Notre Dame fans know all about how fast things can change in only a year and Wake Forest fans know that too. They finished 7-6 last season along with a bowl win versus Temple, but did it on the strength of Mike Elko’s defense. The success they had came in spite of the offense, which was not good (to put it kindly).
They finished 109th in S&P+ and they were a brutal 125th in yards per play. Through eight games the improvement has been dramatic this fall. They are 40th in S&P+ and 42nd in YPP. That doesn’t make them prolific, but to go from one of the worst to the top ⅓ in the country is remarkable. It makes you wonder just how much the Wakey Leaks issue had an impact on the previous lack of success. Without someone giving away their game plan, they have transformed into a pretty good offense.
It all starts at the most important position on the field for them. They have the same quarterback they had when they visited Notre Dame two years ago, but he is a much different player than he was back then.
Wolford having a great season
Senior John Wolford is 6’1” and looks even shorter than that. If you saw him walking down the street, you’d probably assume he was a regular college student and not a starting quarterback in the ACC. He’s developed into a very good football player, though, and is the biggest reason why Wake has taken a big step on offense.
He’s accurate and makes very good decisions with the football. Not just throwing the football either, although he has 15 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions. It’s in the running game where he does a terrific job on the zone read and with RPOs that make this offense a threat on every play.
He often will pull the ball very late while the defense gets sucked into thinking it is a standard run play. That’s the biggest reason why he is the team’s leading rusher.
Wolford is ranked in the top-10 in the nation in yards per attempt and pass efficiency. I think those numbers are a bit inflated because he was injured and did not play against Clemson, the only great defense Wake has faced. But still, he’s been very good in the games he has been available for.
It’s incredible how much he has improved. I don’t think it’s up for debate that he is the best remaining quarterback the Irish defense will face in the final four games this season. Like other shorter quarterbacks, he struggles when there is interior pressure in his face. We’ll see if Elko elects to bring extra heat up the middle in this game because of that.
He also hasn’t been very good in 3rd and long situations when it’s an obvious passing down. He completes less than 50% of his throws in those situations. If Notre Dame gets Wake into a bunch of 3rd and longs like they did with NC State, I like their chances of getting off the field more times than not.
Irish have the edge up front
They have four fourth year players starting on their line and the fifth is a third year player, but this is really an average group at best. They don’t get a ton of movement at the line of scrimmage and don’t run the football particularly well because of it. The passing game has definitely been the better area for them.
It’s not a good thing if you’re quarterback is the leading rusher and he has 341 yards on the season. The backs have not had a ton of room to work with aside from a couple of games. They also had two of their top three backs injured last week. We’ll see if both are available against Notre Dame, but none of them are dynamic players.
Wake is averaging only 3.46 yards per carry against Power 5 opponents. They are 110th in rushing S&P+. They’ve created many more explosive plays in the passing game than they have in the running game and they have not been very good at converting in short yardage situations.
Huge loss in Dortch
Aside from Wolford, the biggest difference the Wake offense had this season was the emergence of slot receiver Greg Dortch. Almost a ¼ of the team’s plays that were 20 yards or longer were receptions from him. He was leading the team in receptions with 53, yards with 722, and touchdowns with 9. All of that is past tense because he is out for the season with an abdominal injury.
It’s a massive loss for their offense, especially because he is coming off a big time performance versus Louisville last week. He was one of the top receivers in the ACC and someone who could turn a short pass into a long touchdown. They don’t have that element without him.
With no Dortch it will be a committee approach with Wolford spreading the ball around. Look for them to target 6’5” Scotty Washington who is coming off a 133 yard performance last week. Tight end Cam Serigne is an option down the seam as well. He’s only had 16 receptions on the year, but 5 have gone for touchdowns.
I think it will be a far less dangerous offense without Dortch, but I assume they will get creative in order to try and produce the explosive element he gave the offense. I think we may see backup quarterback Kendall Hinton inserted in some packages in the backfield or even split out to get another playmaker on the field.
The Wake offense just came off their best performance of the season against Louisville. It will be tough for them to duplicate that against a better defense and without the best skill player on their roster.