Great Spot, But Work Not Finished

Notre Dame couldn’t have asked for a better spot in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

The one-loss Irish were never going to be ahead of an undefeated Georgia squad that beat them in South Bend or an undefeated Alabama outfit, so coming in at #3 was the best they could have imagined.

Projecting ahead, it would seem Notre Dame is one of the few programs that could control its own destiny.

So, if the Irish take care of business in their final four games against Wake Forest, Miami, Navy and Stanford, they’re in, right?

Not so, fast my friend.

Unlike the traditional AP and coaches polls, the playoff committee has shown a willingness to shift their rankings dramatically from week to week. That seems much more practical than the up-and-down the ladder approach of the polls, but sometimes the moves are more than a little bit curious.

Notre Dame has been in this position before and even though the Irish didn’t hold up their end of the bargain, there really was no bargain to hold.

Just two years ago, the Irish debuted at #5 in the initial College Football Rankings.

With two teams set to squad off that coming weekend – Alabama and LSU – Notre Dame looked like a lock to move into the top four with a win over Pittsburgh and that’s exactly what happened. The Crimson Tide beat the Tigers and the Irish moved up to the fourth spot with a victory over the Panthers.

The top four remained the same a week later as Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and the Irish all notched wins again. Things got wacky after that, though.

Notre Dame beat Boston College 19-16 in an ugly game at Fenway Park. If the committee was looking for an excuse to bump the Irish out – and it appears it was – they found out in Boston. Despite the win, Notre Dame fell all of the way from #4 to #6, removing any sense that it held its ticket to the playoffs in its hands.

#9 Michigan State jumped the Irish, moving up to #5 following a 17-14 upset win over #3 Ohio State while the Buckeyes fell down to #8. The win in Columbus gave the 10-1 Spartans a victory on its résumé the 10-1 Irish couldn’t match, so an argument could be made that the win boosted Michigan State over Notre Dame. But with Ohio State falling out, that still could have left the Irish inside the top four.

Since the rankings came out in 2015, Notre Dame was ahead of an undefeated Iowa team, but the committee must have been extremely impressed with the Hawkeyes’ 40-20 home win over a 2-9 Purdue squad because they jumped the Irish that week as well.

Still, even getting jumped by both Michigan State and Iowa wouldn’t have doomed the Irish’s hopes since the two were already on a collision course to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game, which would eliminate one of them anyway.

No, what really killed Notre Dame was what the committee did with Oklahoma that week.

Since getting shocked by Texas in the middle of October, the Sooners were making their case as one of the nation’s hottest teams. They moved from #15 to #12 to #7 over the first three weeks of the rankings.

And then, they made the jump all of the way from #7 to #3.

Now, the Irish’s win over Boston College was unimpressive to be sure, but they were never in any true danger of losing. Their offense was obviously out of sync, but they led 10-0 at the half, 16-3 at the end of the third and 19-3 early in the fourth. The Eagles didn’t make it a one-score game until the final minute and once their onside kick failed, the game was over.

Oklahoma, on the other hand, trailed early in its game against TCU and while it had a three-score lead heading into the fourth, the game was in doubt for much of the final quarter. In fact, down by a touchdown in the final minute, TCU scored a touchdown. An extra point would have sent the game to overtime, but the Horned Frogs decided to go for the win. The two-point conversion failed, but without a great play from defensive back Steven Parker, Oklahoma would have likely lost.

True, Oklahoma did lose quarterback Baker Mayfield to injury midway through the contest, but TCU played the entire game without star quarterback Trevone Boykin AND star wideout Josh Doctson.

Notre Dame’s unimpressive, but relatively easy victory over the Eagles, resulted in being jumped by three teams, including Oklahoma, which had a less impressive win and one that could have easily been a loss.

With the Sooners, Spartans and Hawkeyes all ahead of Notre Dame, along with Clemson and Alabama, it was obvious the Irish would need some major help to regain their spot in the final four. They would end up losing a thriller to Stanford the final weekend of the regular season, but even a victory would have kept them on the outside as Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Michigan State won out.

So, while the Irish are undoubtedly in a strong position to reach their first-ever College Football Playoff if they take care of business, they better to take care of business and that doesn’t mean just winning. They can’t leave any doubt because if they do, the committee could use that crack to push another team above them.

It’s happened before.