Failing the Stanford Experiment
Why can’t Brian Kelly beat Stanford?
Maybe that's not a fair question because he has beaten them, but losing six and winning two isn’t what Notre Dame fans expect when they play the Cardinal even with elevation of their program under Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw. How can Kelly be 5-3 versus USC and 2-6 against a program with less talent than the Trojans?
The simple answer would be that Shaw is a better coach than him and he does a better job of getting his team ready against the Irish. It’s difficult to argue against that because he is 5-2 against Kelly (the sixth win belongs to Harbaugh). Shaw also has 73 wins in his seven seasons at Stanford. Kelly has won 60 over that same time period. That’s the simple answer.
Looking a bit deeper into it, is it because of Stanford’s style of play or offensive scheme? They do run what is considered a non-traditional offense compared to mostly everyone else in college football. Is Stanford physically tougher than Notre Dame because of what Shaw and Harbaugh have built there? I don’t think it’s a yes to either of those questions.
If it was a yes for the first, then why have Kelly’s teams done so well (4-2) against Mark Dantonio and Michigan State with their similar style of play? If the answer were yes to the second question, then why hasn’t Stanford won games by taking over with their running game like they have against so many other programs? Why has Notre Dame held Heisman candidate running backs like Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love well below their season averages?
Other than Harbaugh’s team in 2010, Stanford has never really bullied the Irish since Kelly has coached the Irish. They’ve just simply been better when it comes to things like scoring after turnovers and scoring touchdowns when they get into the red zone. Stanford is 19 of 31 when it comes to producing touchdowns when they get to the red zone in the last eight meetings. Notre Dame is a putrid 10 for 27. That’s the kind of thing that swings games in a massive way.
Another thing that does the same is points after turnovers. Stanford has won the turnover battle against Notre Dame with 18 compared to 14 for the Irish, but that’s not what has made the biggest difference. It’s the fact that they get the ball and take advantage of those turnovers far more than the Irish. Stanford has scored 60 points on the next drive after a turnover. Kelly’s teams have only scored 20 points doing the same.
They have been the better prepared and mentally tougher program when it comes to adverse situations more often than not. That’s been a huge difference between Stanford and Notre Dame in the eight games they have played since Kelly has been in South Bend.
How can Kelly turn those stats around when they play Stanford in the future? There is no easy answer to that question.
Maybe it’s a process that they will have to build on like they have with more time under a new strength and conditioning regime in order to strengthen the culture. Maybe it means creating more sudden change situations in practice all season to deal with turnovers better. Or maybe there is something that is ingrained in Stanford’s program that they have that Kelly doesn’t know how embed into Notre Dame's.
Whatever it is, things will have to change with how Kelly approaches Stanford or else history will continue to repeat itself. Shaw's program is always a tough test for Notre Dame and they have failed that test more often than not.