Early Look at LSU
It might not be the SEC rematch that people were projecting six weeks ago, but Notre Dame facing LSU makes for one of the more intriguing bowl match-ups this January. The last time these two programs played each other was in the Music City Bowl after the 2014 season. We all know how that one turned out and the Irish will be looking to make the same kind of statement again.
The coaching staff is much different than it was a few years ago for the Tigers, but their identity hasn’t changed much. They are fast and physical on defense and want to run the ball down your throat on offense. That’s the simplest way of describing what Notre Dame will face when they play each other in the Citrus Bowl, but obviously there is much more to LSU than that.
Leading up to the game, you can expect a deeper dive into the match-up. For right now, though, here’s an early look at LSU and what they are bringing to the table.
They are on a bit of a roll
This is the first full year for head coach Ed Orgeron running the program and he didn’t get off to the hottest start. They were embarrassed by Mississippi State on the road in September and lost to Troy at home on Homecoming.
At that time Orgeron wasn’t the most popular guy in Baton Rouge. He’s turned it around since then, even if it hasn’t exactly been pretty. They won six of their last seven, which included a win against Auburn. They played Alabama much tighter than most expected as well. That goes to show that, from a talent perspective, they can hang with anybody in the country.
They finished with an identical 9-3 record to the Irish, but most would consider that underachieving with the players they have on their roster. Their defense is as talented on all three levels as any Notre Dame has faced this season. Their coordinator is one of the best in the nation too.
Aranda’s defense will be a huge challenge
Dave Aranda came over from Wisconsin where he had one of the best defenses in the nation. He’s had great units at LSU the last couple of seasons as well. They run a 3-4 and he will pressure at any time because of the versatility his scheme affords him. He can always feel comfortable doing so because he has elite players in his secondary.
They are deep at corner with Donte Jackson, Kevin Tolliver, and Greedy Williams all contributing double digit pass breakups on the seasons. Williams has five interceptions as well. With that group, they can line up and play man coverage against anyone. The defense has only given up 9 touchdowns through the air all season (tied for 4th in the nation).
Those corners combined with what they have up front allows them to be extremely disruptive. They are ranked 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate and have put up 35 sacks. They have dealt with injuries and suspensions that hurt them early in the year on the defensive line, but they appeared to have turned a corner and have played great in the month of November. They’ve given up less than 100 yards per game on the ground in the last month of the season, which includes holding Alabama to their lowest rushing total and yards per carry.
With an elite edge rusher in Arden Key and one of the top inside linebackers in the country in Devin White, it’s a group that should have been capable of playing for a national championship and not the Citrus Bowl.
The offense is a bit of an enigma
Matt Canada came to LSU this year at offensive coordinator with a reputation as one of the most dynamic play-callers in college football. The work he did at Pitt was remarkable in only one season, but he has not been able to duplicate it at LSU so far. Pitt was 10th in the nation in scoring offense in Canada’s only season there. This year LSU is 71st in that category.
There have been rumblings that he is going to part ways with the program after some disagreements with Orgeron. If Canada is offered a head coaching opportunity in the next couple of weeks, he may not be around for the Citrus Bowl.
The Notre Dame coaching staff has to assume that he will be as of now and have to prepare for what seems like an infinite amount of formations. Canada doesn’t run an uptempo scheme. His offenses don’t run as many plays as a lot of other schemes, but it’s because he is moving chess pieces around the board in order to gain an advantage.
He’ll try to outnumber the Irish defense in the running game as much as possible to create holes for running back Derrius Guice. He has the skills to break a long run every time he touches the football. Not many backs have his combination of power, vision, and breakaway ability. Next to Bryce Love, Guice is probably the best back Notre Dame will have faced.
Former Purdue starter Danny Etling is their quarterback and he has been very efficient in recent weeks. They aren’t going to rely on him to win the game, but will need him to deliver the football to their playmakers. At the top of that list is DJ Chark, their leading receiver and a consistent big play threat. He’s averaging 23.2 yards per catch and has returned two punts to the house as well.
I’ll wait to comment on the offensive line until I watch more of them, but they have given up 28 sacks this season and are 103rd in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Tigers average over 200 yards on the ground, so they are clearly doing something right in the run game, but if the Irish defense can get them into obvious passing situations, then it appears that they should be able to generate pressure on Etling.
Other quick notes
- This is the final game for defensive line coach Pete Jenkins. It would be surprising if his group wasn’t extremely inspired to help him go out on a positive note against an offensive line that is nominated for the Joe Moore Award.
- Key had an underwhelming season after off-season shoulder surgery and was finally hitting his stride before getting hurt late in the year. He recently had surgery on his finger, but could be back for the game. He’s a special talent as an edge rusher and was projected to be a high first round pick before this fall.
- It’s probably in Key’s best interest to play and try and perform well against Mike McGlinchey, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if he sat out the game if he decides he wants to enter the Draft. Guice is another player who could sit out much like Leonard Fournette did last year.
- One thing that stands out about this LSU team is that the defense got stronger while they went on their nice run to finish the season. The offense was slightly better than it was, but still finished 57th in scoring offense in November. They finished 64th in total offense and 59th in yards per play. They finished 64th in yard per carry. The defense has been playing at an elite level. The offense has been average at best. Before everyone gets caught up in the fact that Notre Dame didn't play strong in November and LSU did, remember that.
- It's also worth remembering that the 2014 Notre Dame team was a disaster in November and came together to beat LSU. Momentum heading into a bowl game isn't all it's cracked up to be.