Way-Too-Early Stanford Preview
Everyone has been waiting for Stanford to decline in the last few years. Even if they have taken a slight dip, it hasn’t stopped them from having continued success against Notre Dame.
They have won three straight against the Irish and seven of the last nine meetings. Brian Kelly is now 2-6 against the Cardinal, by far his worst record against a rival program. It’s not going to be easy for him to improve it, even though the Irish get David Shaw’s program at home this season.
Stanford should have another good squad in 2018. Even when Kelly has led his teams to wins against Shaw, the games have gone down to the wire. I wouldn't be surprised if it was the case again this October when they travel to Notre Dame.
Good News for Notre Dame
One area where the decline is real for Stanford is on defense. They dropped all the way down to 90th in yards per play and were 59th in S&P+ last season. As recently as 2014 they were ranked 2nd in YPP and 4th in S&P+. They were not great on defense last year and they may be worse this season.
They are losing defensive tackle Harrison Phillips. He not only led their team in sacks and tackles for loss, but overall tackles. He played nose guard and led them in tackles! He declared for the NFL Draft and cornerback Quenton Meeks and safety Eric Reid joined him.
Those two will be missed, but Phillips was the difference maker up front. When they lost Solomon Thomas, Phillips was waiting as the next great player for them. There isn’t anyone like him waiting in the wings to take his place. He made inside linebacker Bobby Okereke’s job much easier and without Phillips disrupting blocking schemes, Okereke will have to deal with a lot more linemen in his face.
The defense was not great at generating pressure with Phillips being the lone exception. They finished 100th in Adjusted Sack Rate and 85th Havoc Rate. I just don’t see the personnel on the defense that makes me feel that will change very much.
The talent level on defense is just not what it was. They simply have not hit on enough players in their front seven recruiting and have failed to develop them like they were doing previously. They were helped out a lot by being ranked first in starting field position thanks to their offense and special teams. If that doesn’t stay the same this season, then they could really struggle on defense.
It won’t help them that they are playing on the road at Autzen Stadium to play Oregon the week before they travel to South Bend.
Bad News for Notre Dame
Just about everybody is coming back on offense. They had to replace offensive coordinator/offensive line coach Mike Bloomgren, but it has always been Shaw in control on this side of the ball. Tavita Pritchard being promoted to offensive coordinator and a new offensive line coach, Kevin Carberry from the Washington Redskins, isn’t going to change their identity.
With Bryce Love surprisingly deciding to return for his senior season, who they are on offense is going to remain the same. They are going to try and run the ball behind stud guard Nate Herbig and wait for Love to break one. He broke several last season on his way to over 2,000 yards and 19 touchdowns. It’s going to be extremely challenging to slow him down, especially if he is healthier than he was when they faced Notre Dame at the end of last season.
Quarterback KJ Costello is back, although he will miss spring ball recovering from an injury. He should be fine in time for the fall and he’ll have almost all of his top targets back to throw to. Notre Dame didn’t do a great job against receivers Trenton Irwin and JJ Arcega-Whiteside and tight end Kaden Smith. They’ll have to deal with all three again along with potential breakout stars in Connor Wedington and Colby Parkinson.
It’s going to be strength versus strength with most of the Irish defense returning as well. Stanford finished 17th in YPP on offense in 2017. In 2018, they might get back into the top-10 in that category for the first time since Andrew Luck was on The Farm.
Spring Questions
They need to find a backup behind Costello after Keller Chryst decided to transfer. They have recruited well at the position, but some of the their highly regarded recruits have flopped recently.
That’s about the only big question on offense. For the most part, the focus should be on the defense where they need to have players emerge as stars.
They need a defensive lineman like Jovann Swann to make a massive leap. Ditto for outside linebacker Curtis Robinson, who had an interception against Notre Dame last season. He was an elite prospect as a recruit and if he could emerge for them as a pass rusher, that could change the dynamic of their defense.
Stanford is still physical on defense. But for whatever reason, they have lost the edge that they had in the early years of Shaw’s tenure. They need to find that again or else they may find themselves in a lot of high-scoring games this fall.