Film Don't Lie: Breaking Down Shea Patterson
When the line first came out for Notre Dame-Michigan, the Irish were favored. Were being the key word in that last sentence. They no long are favored and the primary reason for it is the eligibility of Shea Patterson.
The former 5-star recruit that put up some prolific numbers at Ole Miss in his 10 games he started and is considered a massive upgrade over the other options for the Wolverines. Patterson put up 322.7 yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt in his seven games last season. That would have put him 7th and 13th in the nation in those categories if he played the entire season.
He has a big arm, can thread the ball into tight windows, and is an elusive athlete that can create something out of nothing. Based on all of that, it sure looks like Jim Harbaugh finally has his Andrew Luck in Ann Arbor.
But those numbers and his talent don’t tell the whole story. Yes, he had some big numbers. He also was throwing to the best collection of receivers in the nation at Ole Miss.
Yes, he threw for 918 yards, nine touchdowns, and only one interception in his opening two games. He also did that against a 4-8 Sun Belt team and a 6-5 FCS program. The next five games he threw eight touchdowns against eight picks. Against FBS programs with winning records he threw two touchdowns against five picks and his yards per attempt dropped to 6.1.
Is he the phenom that is going to completely flip Michigan’s passing game (109th in YPA in 2017)? Or is he the guy who will struggle when facing better teams/defenses?
He might end up being a little bit of both based on what I’ve seen from his film. I watched every throw he made against Cal, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU last season and I saw a ridiculously talented thrower that has more than a few parts of his game he needs to improve to be the savior that Michigan fans expect him to be.
The Good
When Patterson had it rolling, he was fun to watch. All of that exceptional ability I saw from him at the Elite 11/The Opening back in 2015 is there. He can win from the pocket.
His accuracy in the quick game is outstanding. He gives his receivers a chance to gain yards after the catch just about every time because of his ball placement and how quick his release is. When he has protection, there aren’t many who look better delivering the football. Deep ball dimes like this can look routine for him when they are anything but for most quarterbacks.
When teams back off of him, he has the patience to pick them apart. Dropping eight isn’t the best option. At least it wasn’t in the games I watched.
Auburn played a very vanilla scheme last year and relied on having more “dudes” rather than trying to confuse their opponents. When they failed to generate pressure with four or less rushers, Patterson was able to distribute the ball really well.
It didn’t look that much different than when he was torching defenders. in 7 on 7. He ended up having more success against them than Alabama and LSU primarily because they didn’t generate enough pressure early and really called the dogs off in the second half when they had a big lead.
His lack of rushing yards doesn’t reflect his athleticism at all. He frequently can escape the rush and either move the chains with his legs or create time for big plays down the field. When a player gets out of the pocket like this, even a defense as good as Alabama's can’t defend it.
As a prospect in high school he was compared to Johnny Manziel quite a bit. Many including myself felt he could be a better version of that during college. That’s high praise, but Patterson is someone who can make big time throws within the structure of the play better than Manziel and improvise when the play breaks down much like Johnny Football.
That’s why Notre Dame fans should be unhappy that it’s going to be him and not another Michigan signal caller on September 1st. Patterson has some magic and unpredictability to his game and that is scary to have to prepare for.
The Bad
It’s pretty obvious Patterson is a confident kid. He makes throws that many others would hesitate to attempt. He isn’t afraid to fit the ball into tight windows. Sometimes it comes back to bite him, though. This is a ball that shouldn’t be thrown, but Patterson thinks he can fit the ball in. It ends up getting tipped and the picked off.
The same thing happened on a later play against. He stuck on his first read thinking he could pull it off. On some occasions he can. Not frequently enough that he should be taking these kind of chances.
The next play after that interception he threw a touchdown so it’s not like his confidence wavered. That’s can be a good and a bad thing. A short memory is important, but he repeated the same mistake a few times against Cal and it cost him.
In almost all of the games he often stared down his first read. That might be a product of the system at Ole Miss (Michigan runs a much different offense), but it’s still not a great habit to have. He was so focused on the slant that he didn’t notice the linebacker who was literally right in his line of sight.
This ended in a pick six that clinched the game for Cal.
The Ugly
It’s not breaking news that Patterson would not pass as well when he’s under pressure. That could be said for every quarterback that has ever thrown a pass. The difference between him with a clean pocket and when the opposition blitzes was drastic, though. He looked like a completely different player other than a handful of plays.
Whether it was Cal, Alabama, Auburn, or LSU, he did not handle the blitz well. Defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt of Alabama blitzed him the most and Patterson looked rattled. He didn’t do a good job of recognizing it and neither did his protection in many cases. T
he back doesn’t pick up the blitzer here, but Patterson still had time to make a much better throw than this. He was bracing for a hit and let it affect his mechanics. This back foot throw didn’t even give his receiver a chance to make a play.
He'll also rush throws and let it affect his timing. Obviously no quarterback likes to get hit, but when he would let the ball go almost blindly to try to avoid it or let his eyes move to the rush instead of downfield quicker than he needed to.
His ability to avoid the rush is an asset, but there is a balance between that and shifting within the pocket to make a play. I don’t think he has found the right balance yet.
One reason why this would scare me if I was a Michigan fan is that their offensive line is a question mark heading into the season. Last year they finished 117th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Ole Miss finished 58th.
That one awesome throw he made against Alabama while rolling to his right shows what he can do outside of the pocket. There is a big difference when he is flushed to his left, though. He’s not as comfortable and he is sacked much more when being chased that way rather than to his right.
Things to Remember
There are some important factors to remember regarding Patterson and Michigan. The first is that he is probably going to be used as a runner more than he was at Ole Miss. He’s not going to do it a lot, but Harbaugh has not had a running threat at Michigan like he did with the 49ers.
Patterson has a similar athletic skill set to Alex Smith and they had a package of running plays for him that I could see Harbaugh going back to this year.
It’s also important to remember that before the last couple of years, Harbaugh was considered to be a great developer of quarterbacks. He had a good track record with Luck, Smith, and the first couple of years of Colin Kaepernick. Patterson might be the kind of player that helps restore that reputation. Harbaugh hasn't had anyone who is close to the level Patterson over the last three years.
On the other side of things is the reality that Ole Miss ran a completely different offense than Michigan does. There is no uptempo to their offense. The systems are polar opposites. Patterson threw the ball 37.1 times per game and Ole Miss threw it almost 55% of the time. Michigan only threw it 41% of its plays. That number will probably go up with a better quarterback, but it’s definitely going to be an adjustment.
By all accounts, Patterson is a very hard worker. I’m sure he has put in a lot of effort into learning this new offense. There is so much to learn compared to what he was working with previously, though.
Ole Miss only had 28 plays in their playbook (you read that correctly). Michigan’s offense last year had over 280!
We’ll find out how much all of these factors will matter or not, but I don’t expect him to stroll into Michigan and throw for 300 yards per game. It would be surprising to me if he did so against Notre Dame.
He’s going to be in a different system. Will he be a different player? It's probably not fair to judge him by his first game at Michigan, but he'll there will be many what he does on the big stage is going to leave an impression. If he isn’t much different in game one than he was in 2017, then the Irish defense should have some chances to create havoc and make Patterson’s Michigan debut an unsuccessful one.