Brian Kelly Vs Elite Defenses

Some of the biggest games that Notre Dame has played in recent years have been against teams with elite defenses. Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia immediately come to mind, but there have been many others.

Since Brian Kelly took over the program in 2010, the Irish have faced 25 defenses that were rated in the top-20 of S&P+. Michigan will make it 26 and counting on September 1st.

The Wolverines were 10th in that category last year. With the amount of talent returning at all three levels and given Don Brown’s track record at Michigan and Boston College, it’s fair to say that they are a lock to be one of the best defenses in the nation again this season.

The past doesn’t always predict the future, but there are always some things that can be learned from it. I went back and looked at how Notre Dame performed versus all 25 of those defenses to see what we might expect when the Irish face Michigan.

I didn’t know what I would learn before digging into some of the results, but I was a bit surprised by what I found.

Elite Defenses Notre Dame Has Faced Since 2010 (Wins in BOLD)

Against elite defenses at Notre Dame, Kelly has seen the good (Michigan State last year) and bad (Georgia last year). A couple of areas where it has not been good enough is in the red zone and on 3rd down.

The touchdown percentage once they get inside the 20 in these games has been ugly They are at 54% (47 of 87) at getting six rather than three (or zero). That obviously makes it difficult to win games and they probably would have won more than they have if they scored more in the red zone. 11 of the games they were 50% or less at scoring touchdowns.

The good news is that the Irish were better than they have ever been under Kelly in the red zone with Chip Long as offensive coordinator. The Irish finished 8th in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage (76.09%). The fact that they were 5 of 5 in the red zone against Michigan State and LSU last season versus two defenses mattered in the end result of those games.

Brandon Wimbush is going to have to have similar success to what he had last season when it comes to converting touchdowns against Michigan.

Getting to the red zone is going to be difficult enough against Brown’s defense because they are consistently great at getting off the field on 3rd down. In his first two seasons at Michigan they finished first in the nation in 3rd down defense.

Of the 25 games against elite defenses, Notre Dame converted only 37.1% (132 of 355). To put that into perspective, that percentage would have put them in the bottom third of college football last season.

It’s unrealistic to think they will have a day converting on 3rd down like they had in the Music City Bowl in 2014 against LSU (11 of 17). The key is them not having a horrible day like they had against Georgia last season. 3 of 17 on 3rd down is probably not going to cut it (although 1 of 14 versus Michigan State in 2012 didn’t destroy their hopes).

I would think the chances of them beating Michigan if they are that bad on the “money down” are slim. If they convert over 40% of the time on 3rd down, it will definitely help their cause.

Outperforming the Average

The one thing about going against a great defense is that whatever a team’s average yards per play is on a season, it can be thrown out against the top defenses. It’s almost impossible to be prolific and just as difficult to get to whatever an average yards per play performance would be.

Producing yards against an elite defense should be measured against what is average for that defense and not what is average for Notre Dame’s offense. In that scenario, the Irish have gained more yards per play than the average from these defenses 15 out of 25 times. That’s pretty good and it has been better in recent years with the Irish being 0.87 YPP better than the average in six of their last nine against elite defenses (two of their last three last season).

How the Irish did in the 2015 season is a cut above other years. That was the only season under Kelly where the Irish had one of the best offenses in college football (11th in S&P+) and they played like it even against the best defenses they faced.

They were 1.29 YPP better than Ohio State’s average performance, 2.14 YPP better than Boston College’s, and 1.6 YPP better than Clemson’s. The offense played well enough to win those games. It was turnovers and the defense that let the Irish down because the offense was good enough to go 3-0.

How good will Notre Dame’s offense be this season? We don’t know that yet, but will find out quickly against Michigan. If the Irish average 6.0 YPP against them or close to it because Brown’s defense will likely be 1.5 to 2.0 YPP less than that on the season.

Ws and Ls

The most important statistic for Kelly against elite defenses? He has won 60% (15-10) of those games.

I think that may be surprising for some people who have recurring Georgia flashbacks from last September, but it’s reality. He has won more than he has lost against top-20 defenses.

By comparison Jim Harbaugh’s teams have gone 9-16 (36%) against top-20 defenses in his seven years at Stanford and Michigan. In the “just sayin” department, Notre Dame is projected to have a top-20 defense in 2018 (they were rated 27th in S&P+ last season).

Things change all the time and the offense Kelly put on the field in 2010 compared to the one he has now is much different than the one that will face Michigan on September 1st. If the past predicts the future in the case of his team going up against a great defense, though, then the Irish may struggle in the red zone and on 3rd down against the Wolverines, but it should not prevent them from being able to win the game.