Expectations for Wimbush?

8,081 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by Bob C
mattfreeman
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What would be an ideal season for Brandon Wimbush in your eyes?

DeShone Kizer threw for 2,884 yards, 21 TDs, 10 interceptions, and completed 63% of his passes in his first year as the starter.

bbixby
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3200 plus yards
24 TDs
6 nits 600 yards rushing
5th qtr irish
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You said ideal so we'll start with the obvious.

13 games of relative health (assuming a bowl game). 4-5 games where he is not playing much if any in the 4th quarter (Temple, Miami of Ohio, Wake Forest, 1-2 others). It is difficult to navigate ND's schedule as a starting QB.

Here are some things I expect that play into my assumptions.

ND will be solid defensively and good enough to keep the team in every game. A top 35 in scoring defense or better unit which should be feasible with the material available and solid development. This means we will rarely be in situations where we HAVE to throw the ball. This is similar to the 2015 defense in points per game.

We will be more up tempo in Long's offense and average 75 plays per game (slightly less than the 75-80 plays) he has done as part of offensive staffs at ASU and Memphis.

We will be able to run the ball effectively and a lot of throws will be easier reads/shorter distance like perimeter screens.

I expect the backs to get 30 carries a game, Wimbush 9 per game on designed runs and scrambles/sacks with the WR to get 5 carries per game based on what Long has done elsewhere.

That leaves about 30 pass attempts per game for Wimbush and 1 per game of mop up duty. Here is what I estimate over 13 games of healthy play:

64% completions at 8.1 per attempt is 3,159 yards passing with a 3:1 TD-INT ratio similar to Riley Ferguson

117 carries at a 4.25 ypc rate for 497 yards net rushing with 5-6 TD's. This includes sacks which will not happen much.

ND rushes for more yards per game than any time under Kelly. This is the best red zone team for Kelly. I think Wimbush has the potential to be a monster but if he is at this level, this team could win 10+.
Reluctant Randy
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65% completion rate. 3,250 yards. 25 TDs to 7-8 INTs. 550 yards rushing (net). 7 Rushing TDs.

Yes, I am setting the bar high, but even Sam Darnold agrees that "Wimbush is a beast"
“If we had to do it all over again, we should have thrown the ball a little bit more." Brian Kelly aka Rupert Pupkin
Dlogistics
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24/7 irish only had Wimbush for just under 500 rushing yards. I laughed at that, but seeing some predictions here I wonder am i way off. I am expecting around 700 yards. I think around 400 on actual QB reads and another 300 improvising. I fully expect at least 3-4 over 50 yard runs
novairish
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3200 yards passing, 28 TDs, 14 interceptions
800 yards rushing, 8 TDs

That's the floor of what I expect.
novairish
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dedoss said:

24/7 irish only had Wimbush for just under 500 rushing yards. I laughed at that, but seeing some predictions here I wonder am i way off. I am expecting around 700 yards. I think around 400 on actual QB reads and another 300 improvising. I fully expect at least 3-4 over 50 yard runs
I don't think you're way off. Wimbush has elite speed and athleticism... he's not Mike Vick or Denard Robinson, but he's as fast/athletic as most D1 wide receivers. It's foolish to think he won't get 50 yards a game with his legs at the minimum even if they don't call many designed runs for him.
mattfreeman
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Ehh. You have to account sacks into his rushing yards too. Every QB gets sacked no matter how good the OL is.

It will be interesting to see how involved in the run game he is as well. He has the ability to be dynamic and something only Malik Zaire really possessed in his game and we didn't get to really see that come to fruition because of injury.
NDTerry
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I think/hope Wimbush is eventually one of the most dynamic QBs we have ever had. However, I always expect significant growing pains in a QBs first year. Always.

Passing for around 2500 yards with 12 TDs vs 8 INT.

Rushing for 800 yards because he will tuck and run, probably more than he should, with 7 TD.

I don't think we can reasonably expect him to be a star this year or to carry this team. I just hope to see the reasons to be really excited about him in 2018.

DeShone's first year was a very pleasant shock to me. Not just a surprise - I was shocked.
hunt4g
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Ideal first means he stays healthy and makes few major mistakes. That requires that he is running the offense without needing to be the offense. There should be an offense focus on the running game with the running backs averaging over 225 years per game. Wimbush adds 50 yards per game on fewer than eight runs per game. He completes 65% of passes with a better than 3:1 TD to interception ratio and ND again becomes tight end U. A balanced offense takes pressure off a first year starter and helps him stay healthy. The other stats should then fall in place.
5th qtr irish
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I don't know what is going to happen but in this offense if Wimbush is healthy and only has 2,500 yards and 12 TD's at the pace that Long wants to be at, this is unlikely to be a great offense.

Even if the running game is very strong, they will balance it enough so that he gets 30 attempts a game.

ND has been playing walk up the line and adjust to the defense pre-snap for several years now. 65-67 plays a game with the QB trying to get us to a great play and having a chess match with the opposing DC. This by all indications is going to be a much more get to the line, run what is called, more straightforward reads and assignments kind of offense.

That should reduce the learning curve we have for the QB compared to what Kelly asked for from guys like Rees and Golson. We are also likely going to be running 75-80 plays per game which is like an extra 100 plus plays or so per season.

One could argue that we have elite personnel on offense and letting that talent shine by giving it more plays (opportunities) and less confusion (less mental errors) makes some sense as long as you don't completely gas your defense in the process.

If we are up in the 75 play range, I'd really be surprised if we only have 12 TD's passing and only 2,500 yards passing. That would imply a dominant running game AND a really good defense. If either of those elements are missing at a minimum we will have to throw the ball a lot just to stay in games. That alone would get him numbers as a passer.
InLeaWeTrust
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NDTerry said:

I think/hope Wimbush is eventually one of the most dynamic QBs we have ever had. However, I always expect significant growing pains in a QBs first year. Always.

Passing for around 2500 yards with 12 TDs vs 8 INT.

Rushing for 800 yards because he will tuck and run, probably more than he should, with 7 TD.

I don't think we can reasonably expect him to be a star this year or to carry this team. I just hope to see the reasons to be really excited about him in 2018.

DeShone's first year was a very pleasant shock to me. Not just a surprise - I was shocked.


I do think we'll consistently stick to being a more run oriented offense, but those would the lowest passing numbers for a QB in the Kelly era and, quite frankly, not very good. Don't see it happening. In 2012, which was a run heavy offense, the combination of Golson/Rees had 2841 yards, 14 td, and 8 INT's. Last year at Memphis, Ferguson was 3698, 32 td's, and 10 INT's. That was also his first year as a starting QB, though it was against worse competition than Wimbush will face.
Bob C
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Matt
Here is my dilemma in answering your question.

As per many NFL evaluations of Kizer had the physical skills,but he lacked the mechanics and technique
of a first round draft pick.

Now my question to you........how has that situation changed for the development of Wimbush ?

Tommy Reese has had no on field coaching experience.Will Brian actually be coaching Wimbush or coaching
Reese to coach Wimbush ?

I love this Wimbush kid.But combining the aforementioned question and the fact Wimbush is a fundamental rookie,how do you see this play out ?
Thank you,and as always I am proud to be on the same "Team Frank" as you.

BC
mattfreeman
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Bob C said:

Matt
Here is my dilemma in answering your question.

As per many NFL evaluations of Kizer had the physical skills,but he lacked the mechanics and technique
of a first round draft pick.

Now my question to you........how has that situation changed for the development of Wimbush ?

Tommy Reese has had no on field coaching experience.Will Brian actually be coaching Wimbush or coaching
Reese to coach Wimbush ?

I love this Wimbush kid.But combining the aforementioned question and the fact Wimbush is a fundamental rookie,how do you see this play out ?
Thank you,and as always I am proud to be on the same "Team Frank" as you.

BC
We will have to see. That question can't be answered now.

In the spring, Rees was working with the QBs as Kelly was with every position group. Kelly did spend time with the QBs, but far less than in the past.

Wimbush has the tools, natural talent, and more "QB" traits (leadership, attitude, etc) than Kizer, which is why he was one of the top QBs in his class.

Wimbush also has had the benefit of learning and getting a feel for how a game is managed. He has seen a successful team (2015) and a team that failed (2016). I think that's a plus because he is a kid that is very intelligent and has seen what works and doesn't work.

In terms of Rees, it's just a wait and see. Kelly could have hired any QB coach and you wouldn't know how Wimbush is going to be at this point in the year. As you know, Notre Dame is a different animal and some coaches/asst. coaches thrive under the bright lights and some can't handle it the pressure.

Rees knows what to expect and how the program is run. Autry Denson and Todd Lyght entered with very little experience and zero big-time D1 program experience.

Rees working with the WRs at Northwestern and the offense in San Diego is a positive in my mind. The Chargers staff raved about his ability to relate and coach the players: http://www.ndinsider.com/football/how-tom-rees-quickly-climbed-the-coaching-ladder-back-to/article_61f258c2-204b-11e7-82cf-175db3c0cca8.html

Quote:

"How old is he?" asks Shane Steichen, the Los Angeles Chargers' quarterbacks coach. He just worked daily with Rees for roughly a year, and honestly, he has no idea.

Twenty-four years old, you tell him, and Steichen nearly cuts you off. He swats away the number like a center protecting the rim.

"He doesn't act like a 24-year-old," Steichen interjects. "That's the difference. He carried himself in an adult manner. He carries himself like he's a 34-year-old, the way he goes about his business."

Rees' business, in his lone season as an offensive assistant with the Chargers, often required him to coach players who were significantly older and more experienced. And yet, it never showed.

"It's hard for some young coaches to say, 'All right, I'm the same age as these players,' and a lot of our players were older than Tommy," says Nick Sirianni, the Chargers' wide receivers coach. "But there was never a moment where it was like Tommy trying to be a guy's friend ever. Which is a good thing. He was always their coach."

Experience, believe it or not, is not a critical trait in a successful football coach. Do you know the game, and can you teach it?

Rees checked both boxes in permanent ink.

"When he came in, the players respected him, because he knew what he was talking about," Steichen says. "As soon as you know what you're talking about at any level it doesn't matter what level it is as soon as you can help these guys, they're going to respect you no matter what your age is."
It's definitely a risky hire by Kelly in a crucial year, but there have been plenty of young coaches that have had success and they have to start somewhere. Could Rees be one of those guys? We will see in about 6 months.
Bob C
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Talent AND technique beat talent only every time !
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