Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Florida State
Notre Dame lost Wisconsin, USC, and Stanford from their schedule, but they did gain a couple of high profile matchups to replace them. One is with North Carolina after Thanksgiving. The second is their first big test of 2020, a home game against Florida State.
The Seminoles are ranked 26th in the SP+ preseason ratings, which seems about perfect for a team that has underachieved over the last few years. They have the talent to be a top-15 squad, but they haven’t been close to that level recently.
Enter former Memphis coach Mike Norvell, who won a lot of games in the AAC and played an exciting brand of football. The opportunity is there for him to get things turned around in Tallahassee and have them back competing with Clemson for the top spot in the ACC on an annual basis.
He’ll have to get control of the program first, though, and he’s already had to navigate two potential player mutinies. It hasn’t exactly been a great start for him. He’s probably just hoping he can win a game before he loses his team.
They have Georgia Tech, Samford, and Miami to start the season. The Miami game should tell us a lot about what kind of team they’ll have when before they travel to South Bend.
Offense
Norvell is a terrific play caller. He did a fantastic job at Arizona State and then at Memphis, where they finished as a top-10 offense in yards per play over the last three years. His first year there they finished 33rd in YPP, which would be a big improvement from the 59th spot FSU finished in 2019.
They are projected 30th in SP+ and with Norvell calling plays combined with the talent returning, that feels about right. Losing Cam Akers hurts, but he never became the player he could have been because his blocking in front of him was so terrible. That’s still likely going to be an issue in ‘20.
They have the 11th ranked offensive line in the ACC according to Athlon and simply haven’t recruited and developed there for the last five or six years. They have to replace both starting tackles as well and Notre Dame’s defensive line should have a pretty big advantage against them.
The offense was explosive for Norvell at Memphis and they forced defenses to be disciplined with RPOs. There is some talent in the backfield, but will the line be good enough for them to do what Memphis did in the running game? Can they give the quarterbacks enough time to hit the deep ball?
The FSU running game was 105th in Power Success Rate (converting on 3rd or 4th and short) and 112th in Stuff Rate (tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage). They were 115th in sack rate. This also isn’t the type of year where things are likely to get fixed on the offensive line with less practice time than usual.
Quarterback James Blackman returns and he showed plenty of promise on 1st down, especially on play-action passes. He was the 26th rated passer in the country on 1st down and averaged 11.2 yards per attempt.
His averages dropped significantly on passing downs.
He was the 96th rated passer in the country on 3rd downs and his YPA dropped to 6.7. The protection is a big reason for that.
He will have a stud wide receiver to throw to. Tamorrion Terry is a big play waiting to happen. He has averaged over 20 yards per reception for his career and is a likely day two choice in the NFL Draft. Expect Clark Lea to roll a lot of coverage his way as he’s the only proven target on the roster.
This is the fourth offensive coordinator in four years for FSU. The chances are pretty good that they won’t be clicking on all cylinders in their fourth game of the season.
X-factor - Terry
He’s had a reception of 40 yards or more in 13 games the last two seasons. He’s had eight receptions of 60 yards or more in his career. He’s the guy in their offense that can swing momentum with one play.
Wild card - Blackman
Six of his 11 interceptions came on 3rd or 4th down last season. He’s shown flashes and been good in stretches, but has never put it all together.
Defense
They are 33rd in SP+ heading into the season and are 9th in returning production. FSU is loaded with elite raw talent, especially on the defensive line and in the secondary.
So why aren’t they better? This should be a top-20 defense every year at the very least. They finished 41st in YPP in 2019.
New coordinator Adam Fuller will get a shot at taking them up a level and he did that at Memphis last season when they went from bad (87th in SP+) to above average (40th) in his one year there. Before that he was at Marshall and his defense was 22nd in SP+ and were 18th in Havoc Rate in 2018.
It took him some time to get the defense up to that point, but the material he’ll be working with at FSU is by far the best he’s had. It starts up front with a defensive line loaded with future NFL players.
Defensive tackles Marvin Wilson and Cory Durden are studs. They might be the best duo the Irish face from the interior this season. Wilson had 13.5 Havoc plays in only nine games and could be a first round pick.
Janarius Robinson finally started to breakthrough with a productive season last year and though he led the teams in tackles for loss, the end opposite him is even better. Former Notre Dame recruiting target Joshua Kaindoh missed most of last season due to an injury, but he’s a freakish pass rusher when healthy. Notre Dame’s tackles are going to have their hands full dealing with him.
They aren’t as good at the second level, but all three starters return from last season. They have three starters coming back in the secondary as well, with Asante Samuel Jr. and Hamsah Nasrildeen as the two headliners.
Nasrildeen had over 100 tackles last season and Samuel Jr. is ultra-competitive. He gets his hands on the football a lot and had 14 pass break ups last season. They have recruited really well there too and have others with the potential to develop into stars.
The weird circumstances of this season may mean they might not be great right away, but the talent on this defense is right behind Clemson out of Notre Dame’s opponents. This should be a very good defense and they’ll present some challenges to Tommy Rees and the Notre Dame offense.
X-factor - Wilson
Wilson could be the best defensive tackle in college football if he plays a bit more consistently. When he’s at his best, he’s borderline unblockable and is going to disrupt some plays and put Notre Dame behind the sticks on some drives.
Wild card - Kaindoh
He’s one of those players who needs this season to prove his worth to NFL scouts because his production has not matched his talent. He has eight career sacks and should beat that this year if he can take that next step as a player and stay healthy.
Overview
The team was undisciplined under Willie Taggart. They were 71st in explosive plays against them and dead last in penalties per game. That’s one huge reason why they didn’t play anywhere close to their talent level.
Norvell has to fix that and deal with what has been a terrible offensive line for most of the last decade. That’s not something that happens overnight and won’t be easy to remedy in a time where his players have already criticized him and the school during his short time on the job.
If they put everything together, FSU could be Notre Dame’s second toughest matchup of the season. The odds of that happening don’t seem great for them. It’s more likely that they go through ups and downs before Norvell gets them going in 2021.
Notre Dame’s defensive line will have a massive advantage in this game and it should be a big factor in the final score.