Scouting Report | Clemson
This is not David versus Goliath. It just feels that way for Notre Dame fans who have been waiting for a win over a team like Clemson since 1993.
This is the fourth ranked team in the country versus the top ranked team. There is no doubt there is a gap between the “Big 3” of Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State when it comes to elite level talent. This is Notre Dame’s latest chance to prove how close they are to those programs.
Clemson is 36-1 over their last three seasons with the only loss coming to LSU in the national championship game. They are currently ranked 4th in SP+.
Notre Dame is 29-3 over the last three seasons with one of those losses coming to Clemson in the 2018 College Football Playoff. Both of these teams have much different rosters than they did then and when taking into account who won’t be playing for Clemson in this game, they are a slight notch below that 2018 squad.
Even taking that into consideration, this is the best team to travel to South Bend since USC in 2005.
Injuries and Opt Outs
The huge one is QB Trevor Lawrence being out after having after contracting Covid-19, but not having LB James Skalski is equally big. He’s Brent Venables’ avatar on the field every week.
DE Justin Foster has been out all season and it’s doubtful he plays. He had double digit TFLs last season.
DL Xavier Thomas is out for the first half for targeting, but has been coming on in recent weeks after complications from Covid-19.
LB Mike Jones was out last game with a hamstring injury. He’s the Isaiah Simmons replacement and has been good this season.
DT Tyler Davis has been dealing with an injury and missed Boston College. He’s a dominating run defender and can really collapse the pocket when he’s on as well.
WR Joseph Ngata has been banged up all season. Maybe they are saving him for this game, but he’s the big receiver they have been missing to fill in for Justyn Ross and Tee Higgins.
Ross has to be mentioned here as well. He has not played this season because of a significant neck injury. He is a difference-maker and they’ve missed him.
QB DJ Uiagalelei has been hurt and though he is playing, it has impacted his usage in the running game. He is a monster weapon on zone reads if he’s healthy enough to run.
CB Fred Davis II missed the Boston College game and his status is unknown. He’s been a very good third corner for them. There are some other depth pieces who are hurt, but that’s the big list of impact contributors.
Offense
Anyone would take a step back when they are missing a generational quarterback, but this offense is still loaded. They are 6th in SP+, but only 22nd in yards per play this season. That should be taken with a grain of salt, though, because they have had several blow out wins.
With Uiagalelei at quarterback against Boston College, they averaged 6.05 YPP.
They are a team that typically gets off to fast starts and average 12 points per game in the 1st quarter. Notre Dame can’t afford to not be on point immediately against them.
Expected Strengths
Travis Etienne is not only the best back in college football, he may be the best player. He’s elite after contact, has the speed to take it the distance from any point on the field, and is outstanding as a receiver.
He has 434 receiving yards, which puts him in the top-40 in the country. No other back cracks that list. He’s averaging a ridiculous 15.0 yards per reception and is coming off a game where he had 140 yards.
He’s the second leading receiver on the team and the first is Amari Rodgers. He’s been a star out of the slot this season and has 40 catches (14.6 average). He’s been elite vs man to man coverage.
Notre Dame has faced some great slot receivers this season in TuTu Atwell and Jordan Addison. Rogers is different from them, but on the same level if not better.
This year they’ve gone to the tight ends Braden Galloway and Davis Allen much more. Both of them are capable of breaking big plays down the seam and are big targets off of play-action. They have combined 358 yards.
Clemson is close to automatic in short yardage situations and are 16th in Power Success Rate. Much like Notre Dame, they are great at keeping drives going. They convert over 50% on 3rd down. They were at 43.75% with Uiagalelei last week, but were 3 for 3 on 4th down.
It’s an explosive offense. They don’t need long drives to be successful. Etienne is a threat whenever he runs, but the passing game is elite at creating big chunk plays. They have had 39 completions of 20 yards or more and have the 2nd most plays of 20 yards or more from scrimmage this season.
They have been really good at protecting the quarterback. They are 16th in sack rate and have only given up pressures on 19.7% of drop backs.
Uiagalelei is a true freshman, but he’s a dazzling talent. He’s mobile and had a 30-yard run last week and might have the strongest arm in all of college football. He can fit the ball into windows mere mortals can’t. He looked poised and very accurate against Boston College.
Potential Weaknesses
The protection wasn’t as great against Miami and they allowed defensive ends Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche to combine for 10 pressures. That’s an area where Notre Dame will hope to have Ade Ogundeji, Daelin Hayes, and Isaiah Foskey to have similar success.
They aren’t anywhere close to dominant up front running the ball. They only averaged 3.4 yards per carry vs BC and the 5.9 YPC for Etienne is down from 7.2, 8.1, 7.8 in his career. That’s not him declining. That’s the line not being as good combined with the tight ends being below average in the run game.
Galloway and Allen are move tight ends, not guys who are consistently winning at the point of attack.
Left guard Matt Bockhorst and center Cade Stewart are two players that are average in my opinion. Stewart has also committed five penalties this season.
Depth behind Etienne is a problem. He creates so much on his own that whenever the next back comes in it’s a significant drop off.
I mentioned Etienne is a beast after contact, but he has also fumbled three times this season.
They don’t have an elite big man on the outside who can dominate the 50/50 balls this season. Their is young talent at the receiver position, but they don’t have the playmakers that are anywhere close to what they had in 2018.
We don’t know much about Uiagalelei when he’s pressured because he threw from a clean pocket often against BC. He got the ball out quickly and has completed 77.5% of his throws when he gets the ball out in 2.5 seconds or less. When he has to hold on to it longer, that drops down to 55%.
Scheme
They will switch tempos and attempt to play fast whenever they can. They are averaging 82 plays per game.
Without those big receivers, they take a few less deep shots per game, but will still run 4 verts and attack in different ways with the tight ends and run slot fade with Rodgers. Notre Dame has to be ready for double moves because they set them up well to take those deep shots.
Though 11 personnel has been their primary grouping for many years, they do play more 12 this season with the two tight ends with a double wing look.
They run the ball a lot less than most teams. They are a 45.93% run team in 2020 and were 41.9% last game. So if you’re thinking they are going to change much to try and protect the young quarterback, that’s not happening.
They want to get the ball out quickly when blitzed and send five into the pattern quite a bit. They had 5 man protections on 52.3% of snaps against Boston College.
When teams overcommit to the run, they will take advantage with RPOs.
Key Players
RB Travis Etienne - The Jenga piece for their offense. The most valuable player and it’s not really close.
QB DJ Uiagalelei - 342 yards and 8.3 yards per attempt in his first start at home.
OT Jackson Carman - An elite left tackle who has given up one sack this season. It happened last game against BC, but the depth of the drop by Uiagalelei was the primary cause of it.
TE Braden Galloway - Had a monster game against Miami, but was only targeted once against BC.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
Interior DL vs Clemson Interior OL -
There are honestly about five critical matchup for Notre Dame in this game. That’s what defenses are dealing with against Clemson’s offense.
This is a matchup Notre Dame needs to win to not only disrupt Etienne in the running game, but also get into the face of Uiagalelei when throwing.
Defense
Clemson is 10th in SP+ on defense, which seems a bit surprising given that it is elite in so many categories. They are 8th in YPP and Brent Venables once again is doing a masterful job with a defense no matter who they have lost to the NFL or to injury.
He’s the best defensive coordinator in college football.
They are sixth in 2nd half points per game so even if they give up something early, it typically doesn’t last because of the adjustments Venables makes.
Expected Strengths
They have elite 3rd down defense. Venables is tremendous at mixing up pressure packages and they are disciplined in most coverages.
The pass rush is again one of the best in college football. Though they don’t have one dominant edge rusher, they are still 4th in sack rate and 3rd in sacks per game. The overall pressure rate is 36.4%, although it has been significantly better in some games than others.
Freshman Bryan Bresee is already one of the best interior pass rushers in the country and the overall depth on the line can be overwhelming. They are 4th in stuff rate (tackles on runs for zero yards or less) and they consistently put teams in long yardage situations because of their run defense.
They give up only 1.78 YPC on 1st down. Clemson is 2nd in the country in tackles for loss per game and it’s equal parts scheme and talent that gets them there. They are consistently consistent at creating negative plays with a Havoc Rate of 23.8%.
The pressure they bring helps them turns the ball over. They have nine interceptions on the season and have created 13 turnovers. Safety Nolan Turner has tremendous recognition and has three picks.
Cornerback Derion Kendrick has played at an elite level and the corners in general are very good. They are at a point where they lose a first round pick in AJ Terrell from last season and might be even better.
The linebackers are super aggressive and they are still fast and physical without Skalski. Baylon Spector is a really good blitzer and has 6.5 TFLs.
Potential Weaknesses
There aren’t many. It almost feels like nitpicking to point them out. BC was 3 for 3 vs them in the red zone. That has obviously been an area where Notre Dame has not been good this season, but it is worth noting that BC ran the ball in on them when they had to and won some contested catch situations.
They have given up some big plays in the passing game. BC had six against them last week and they’ve given up 10 passes of 30 yards or more on the season. Wake had 59 and 39-yard receptions against them. They gave up a 83-yard reception to Syracuse speedster Nykeim Johnson.
Both Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong and Phil Jurkovec had some success running on them. Notre Dame will need Ian Book to do the same in this game.
I mentioned Spector’s ability as a blitzer, but he’s not been great in coverage. He’s had 7 of 8 targets completed against him and that’s a matchup Notre Dame’s tight ends and backs should be able to take advantage of.
It will also be a good thing if they can isolate Turner in coverage deep. He’s great at breaking on things in front of him and not as great when he has to open up and run.
Scheme
It’s not a secret that Venables likes to attack on defense. He’s blitzed quarterback on 92 of 214 drop backs (43%). He’s so good at getting favorable matchups against protection and will try to attack Kyren Williams as a blocker whenever he can. I’d expect a good amount of zone pressures.
He will play three down way more often than he used to, but look for it on 3rd down where they can play more games with linebackers and defensive backs.
His teams are ultra-prepared against teams that run the same concepts over and over again in the run game. Tommy Rees has done a good job of tweaking things each week with certain runs and will need to continue to do the same.
Expect a lot of Cover 1 robber with one of the LB eyeing Ian Book and robbing any routes over the middle to try and take away some of the crossers Notre Dame loves to run. He’ll split the linebackers with both watching the running back and when one side takes him, the other is the robber.
While some of the pressures he runs would be considered exotic, a lot of why it works is the level of execution from his defense.
Key Players
CB Derion Kendrick - He was beat on out and up, but throw was off when covering BC’s Zay Flowers. He was also beat for 48-yards by Jaelan Gill and for a touchdown to Flowers. He’s very good, but not a lockdown guy.
DT Bryan Bresee - 11.8% pressure rate and extremely advanced for a freshman.
Edge Myles Murphy - 7.5 TFLs leads the teams. Another freakish freshman who can disrupt the running game.
LB MIke Jones Jr. - Emerging as a potential high pick in the NFL Draft. It’s a big deal if he’s not available.
DT Tyler Davis - Their best defensive lineman when he’s healthy. He’ll be a problem if he plays.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
1st down running game -
1.78 YPC for Clemson vs 5.64 YPC for Notre Dame. One of the reasons Notre Dame has been so good on 3rd downs is that they haven’t been stuck in 3rd and long often. If that happens in this game, it will be a long night against Venables.
Notre Dame has to win on first down as much as possible.
Special Teams
They rank 15th in SP+ on special teams, but it’s misleading in my opinion. Kicker BT Potter has missed five kicks including three under 40 yards and one extra point.
Punter Will Spiers on the other hand has been good in limited opportunities. He’s averaging 47.75 per punt.
This is a huge red alert for Notre Dame’s coverage teams. Etienne will go back to return at times. He has one punt return for 44 yards and one kick return for 40. When he’s back there, they need to kick away from him.
They had three kicks blocked against Miami and a punt blocked against Syracuse. File that away because Notre Dame might need a block in this game to gain an edge.