6 Thoughts on a Thursday
No objective person is going to pick Notre Dame to beat Alabama on Friday. Not even JOHN BRICE.
They have an obvious overall talent advantage. They can lose a first round draft pick in Jaylen Waddle and still have a ridiculously explosive passing game led by DeVonta Smith. He’s been phenomenal and quarterback Mac Jones has been lights out all season.
This is a historically great offense. They haven’t been held under 40 points since the first game of the season. They average 0.7 points PER PLAY. The only two offenses that have averaged more than that were Oklahoma in 2018 (Kyler Murray) and Florida State in 2013 (Jameis Winston).
How do you stop an unstoppable force? It doesn’t just seem unlikely. It seems pretty much impossible, which is why they are such heavy favorites against Notre Dame.
They are that good and the matchup isn’t a great one for the Irish. Their strength is the prolific passing game. Notre Dame’s biggest weakness on defense is the secondary, which has given up 13 more explosive passing plays this season than last season in 13 games versus 11 this fall.
So the key must be to get pressure on Jones, right? Sure, but no one has had much luck doing that.
They have an 18.8% pressure rate against this season, only two teams have had double digit pressures against them, and only one team (Georgia) has had more than two sacks. Oh, and they’ve essentially nullified the best pass rushers they’ve faced this season in the SEC.
Notre Dame could get back to their Havoc causing ways (they finished second in Havoc Rate during the regular season), but even then they are going to struggle to stop Alabama. It’s inevitable that Alabama is going to put up a lot of points.
Hopefully you’re still reading after all of that. If you are, then know that it doesn’t mean that Notre Dame can’t win the game. It just means it’s going to be difficult to do so, which is why all 6 Thoughts this week are dedicated to how Notre Dame can pull off the upset.
It starts with shortening the game.
Alabama averages 70.9 plays per game on offense, which isn’t a crazy number by any means. If the Irish want to win this game, they have to cut that number down.
The defense is 12th in plays per game against them. They’ve held five of their opponents to under 62 plays. A lot of that has to do with the offense controlling the ball (seventh in time of possession), but it’s also about winning on 3rd down.
North Carolina only snapped the ball 57 times against them and a huge reason why is that the defense stopped UNC on nine of 11 3rd downs. They were able to do that by playing great on 1st down (4.6 yards per play). Doing this against Alabama, who protects the quarterback A LOT better than UNC, is going to be a much tougher task. That’s what will need to be done, though.
Winning on 3rd down is something the defense has been exceptional at. They are sixth in the country in that category. If they can get back to doing that well, shorten the game by possessing the football like they have so well this season, and make Alabama even a little below their average on offense, then the game becomes more winnable.
If they hold Alabama to the low 60s for offensive snaps, the odds become a lot greater for Notre Dame.
2. I really believe that Notre Dame should lean hard into playing heavier this week with as much 12 (one back, two tight ends), 13 (one back, three tight ends), and 22 personnel (two backs, two tight ends) as possible.
It’s not just about being able to run the football and hold on to it. It’s about the fact that it will force Alabama to play outside of what they have played mostly this season. True freshman nickel back Malachi Moore has played 707 out of 797 snaps for them. If Notre Dame has 13 personnel on the field, that’s not a situation where they can roll out a nickel corner all game.
Alabama certainly has the personnel to play more traditional heavier. If they do that, though, then it could give Tommy Rees a chance to use formations to get Tommy Tremble and Michael Mayer matched up on linebackers.
Mismatches are going to be huge in this game on both sides. I know Steve Sarkisian will move his pieces around to try and take advantage of favorable matchups for Alabama. Rees needs to do the same with the pieces he has to keep up the necessary scoring pace.
3. When playing Nick Saban, sticking to exactly who you are isn’t going to get it done most of the time. Notre Dame is going to have to break some tendencies and change things up to keep Alabama’s defense off balance.
Saban and defensive coordinator Pete Golding are going to come in expecting Notre Dame to run the ball and there is no doubt that the Irish aren’t winning unless they do that. At the same time, Rees needs to mix it up far more often so Alabama can’t load up against it.
The offense has only run play-action on 24.7% of their drop backs this season. For an offense whose identity is built around the offensive line, tight ends, and the running game, that is too low in my opinion.
More play-action, not just play-action that involves deep shots down the field, is something that the Irish can use more to keep the chains moving.
4. I don’t care what defense they are facing, no offense can score consistently if they have to produce double digit plays on almost every drive. Rees has to find big plays to keep up with Alabama.
Some of that will have to come outside of the framework of the regular offense. Yes, this is the time to break out the gadget plays when appropriate. It’s the time to utilize every play in the playbook that they have at their disposal. There is no better time than now because there is no tomorrow if they don’t score enough points.
They’ll need plays like this with Kyren Williams slipping out after faking a block on the jet sweep.
They need to get more touches for a player like Chris Tyree and going back to a two back look like the one they ran against Duke early in the year might not be a bad way to do it.
When they’re in 22, they can line up Williams out wide and throw a screen to him like this play against Duke.
Or dip back to the old stuff and like this Avery Davis touchdown on a play where the linebackers and safeties are thinking pin and pull and get fooled by the misdirection.
Or this play from 2016 where Miles Boykin stops, but then releases down the field and is wide open for a touchdown.
This is a kitchen sink kind of game. Everything should be on the table.
5. I think it will be critical to run more counters for Notre Dame base plays as well. More boot off of outside zone to the boundary. More of Ian Book pulling or called keeps on the zone read. More play-action or designed runs off of Notre Dame’s signature counter play that they’ve run so much with the backside guard and Tremble leading.
Think of this from Notre Dame in 2017 when they played LSU in the Citrus Bowl. Counter trey was a staple under Chip Long. Miami feasted on it because the Irish didn’t have a counter to go with it. They did for the bowl game and it was an important play.
6. Lastly, I’m not saying anything that isn’t obvious about Book having to play great for Notre Dame to win the game. He did in the first game against Clemson. He didn’t in the second game.
No matter what happens, he’ll go down as one of the best quarterbacks at Notre Dame. His record speaks for itself. I’m positive he won’t want to go out with a performance like his last one.
He needs to play balanced in this game. Not too loose and not too tight, which is exactly how he played in that first Clemson game. He made throws into tight windows often. When it was time to improvise, he did so. When it was time to waive the white flag on a play, he did that as well.
He held the ball too long and that was a big reason why he was sacked five times in the ACC Championship game. His completion percentage might have looked better, but the six times he threw the ball away in that first game were smart decisions. He needs to make more of them against Alabama.
Everyone knows how Alabama is going to play him. They are going to “mush rush” often trying to keep him in the pocket and force him to make throws against zone. He’ll have to trust his receivers and throw the ball with anticipation. That’s not something he has consistently done well.
Only one team has won a College Football Playoff game with a quarterback not shining and that was Alabama with Jalen Hurts back in 2016 and 2017. He was surrounded with exceptional talent around him and when they needed someone to be a difference-maker in ‘17, they turned to Tua Tagovailoa at halftime of the national championship game.
Book isn’t surrounded by the same talent. He has to be the one to lift his game up to match up what this year’s Alabama team is doing opposite him. He did it once earlier this year and proved a lot of people wrong in the process.
If he can do it again, he can give his team a shot at pulling off the biggest upset in the history of the CFP.