Scouting Report | Toledo
Brian Kelly is correct. Toledo is the best MAC team he has faced since he’s been at Notre Dame.
They are projected to win their division heading into the season and have more returning production (97% according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly) than any team in the country. That’s largely because they benefited from the extra year of eligibility that the NCAA allowed for every player because of the circumstances of last season.
Head coach Jason Candle was once a very hot name in coaching circles after an 11-3 season in 2017. Toledo fell back down to earth after that with a record of 13-12 the next two years. They had a bit of a bounce back last season finishing 4-2, but against a schedule that only consisted of only conference opponents.
They were projected 79th in FEI and 66th in SP+ heading into the season. It’s pretty much impossible to take much from them putting a beat down on an average FCS team in week one (49-10 over Norfolk State), but Notre Dame has learned that their preparation matters more than the opponent when they are playing a Group of 5 program.
Kelly is 8-0 versus the MAC since he left Central Michigan, but the result of the Ball State game in 2018 should be more than enough of a reminder that the Irish can’t sleep walk through this week.
Under Candle, Toledo has not upset a Power 5 opponent.
Injuries/Suspensions
They lost starting linebacker Daniel Bolden with an injury in fall camp.
Not having DT Desjuan Johnson in the first half of this game (targeting) could be very big. He’s one of their best defenders.
Offense
They were projected 69th in SP+ and 54th in FEI heading into the season. Against an overmatched FCS opponent, they averaged 7.88 yards per play last week.
They’re a little all over the map in terms of how good they’re offense has been in the previous five years, but they were top-10 in the country back in 2016 (Candle was offensive coordinator) and have been ranked in the top-30 in FEI twice since then.
Expected strengths
They are a little bit of the inverse of Florida State where the running game is a question mark, but the passing game should be Notre Dame’s first test with that aspect of their defense.
They finished top-11 in passing efficiency last season and were explosive. They were top-10 in average 30-yard passing plays per game and are led by a strong wide receiver group. Isaiah Winstead (17.2 per reception in 2020) and Bryce Mitchell (23.5) were both deep threats for them. Devin Maddox is a smaller option in the slot who can make plays after the catch. He’s got some legitimate juice with his speed.
They were 14th in 3rd down conversion percentage last season and with so many players back on offense, it should be an expectation that they will continue to be pretty efficient in that area.
Potential Weaknesses
All five starters are back up front, but as we learned with some other teams already, that’s not always a good thing. T Nick Rosi had 35.6 grade in true pass sets via PFF and G Tyler Long was 40.2. Notre Dame’s pass rush was very good in week one and this should be an advantage for the Irish.
The running game was not very good. They finished 93rd in average line yards, 109th in stuff rate, 100th in Power Success Rate, and 92nd in Havoc Rate allowed. If they’re one dimensional and having to pass all the time against this pass rush, it’s likely not going to go well for them.
Scheme
They run a spread scheme like just about everybody else in the country and played a high percentage of 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) last season. This season it might be moving to more 11 because of the strengths at receiver. The tight end isn’t a very big threat in the receiving game for them.
Expect a lot of deep balls when Carter Bradley is in the game at quarterback, but he split some snaps with Dequan Finn in week one. Finn is a running threat who averaged 9.1 yards per carry last week. It’s a different mind set if he’s taking snaps. Bradley had zero carries in the game.
They want to get on the ball and play at a good pace. They averaged 79.3 plays per game in 2020.
They ran more gap running plays than zone schemes last year, but Notre Dame has to prepare for both considering how Candle ran more zone in the past.
Key Players
RB Bryant Koback - Pre-season first team All-MAC and a transfer from Kentucky.
QB Carter Bradley - Threw for 432 against Central Michigan last year.
WR Bryce Mitchell - 43.5% of his targets were 20 yards down the field or longer last season. Not a burner, but he’s 6’3” with a pretty solid catch radius.
OL Bryce Harris - 1st team preseason All-MAC at center.
WR Isaiah Winstead - Big body that they like to target back shoulder. He’s 6’3” 215.
Key for Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman’s adjustments - It’s less about a matchup and more about what Freeman is going to do to get his defense right after the second half of the Florida State game. I think it’s a fair bet we’ll see more four down for the entire game.
Defense
The big thing that has held Toledo back in recent years was a below average defense. They made improvements last season with the addition and are projected 66th in SP+ heading into the season, but only 90th in FEI.
Expected strengths
They have some good players on this defense that could easily play the Power 5 level.
Desjuan Johnson is undersized, but very quick as an interior defensive lineman. He can be disruptive. Jamal Hines is a quality player for them off the edge and produced as a pass rusher last fall.
Safety Tycen Anderson is a legit NFL prospect on the back end of their defense. CB Samuel Womack is considered to be one of the top cover guys in the MAC.
They were third in opponent 3rd down percentage after being all the way down at 95th the previous season. That’s the kind of impact Kehres had in his first season.
Potential Weaknesses
Kehres made them better, but how much was the improvement related to playing all MAC teams? When they had a talent disadvantage against Power 5 programs from 2017-2019, they gave up an average of 7.3 YPP in those games.
The pass rush wasn’t great last year. They were 91st in sack rate.
I mentioned Johnson is undersized. He’s listed at 255. That’s quite a big difference between him and the guys Notre Dame’s interior linemen had to block last week. Notre Dame is simply bigger than them in the trenches.
Scheme
Kehres, the former head coach at Mount Union, has been very multiple with what he’s shown at Toledo. The base is a 4-2-5, but they’ll mix fronts and play three safeties and be very adaptable from week to week. It means Notre Dame has to prepare for several different looks.
He did not blitz very much against Norfolk State, but I would expect him to attack with pressures and stunts a lot against Notre Dame. He called blitzes on 38.5% of passing plays last season and three games he was over 50%.
Key Players
S Tycen Anderson - He made Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List and is healthy after being banged up in 2020.
DT Desjuan Johnson - Had 8 tackles for loss in only six games last fall.
CB Samuel Womack - Considered to be the best cover corner in the MAC, he’s been a pass breakup machine for the Rockets.
LB Dyontae Johnson - Another All-MAC selection, he led them in tackles in 2020.
Key for Notre Dame
Handling the blitz - This is more about how they will handle it as a whole than just in pass protection. Everyone who remembers that Ball State game will recall that they threw the kitchen sink at Notre Dame and that really disrupted the running game.
If offensive line handles it correctly, then the running game has a chance to get on track this week and Jack Coan can have another strong game from the pocket.
Special Teams
They are good on special teams as a whole. Punter Bailey Flint averaged 47.3 yards per punt in 2019 and can flip the field. Kicker Thomas Cluckey returns and he was 5 for 5 with field goals, but didn’t attempt one over 40-yards in 2020. He didn’t have to attempt a field goal in the opener.
The punt team has to be on alert in this one. Toledo blocked two punts against Norfolk State.
Overview
This is a very good MAC team and one that has enough experience that they shouldn’t be overwhelmed coming into Notre Dame Stadium.
That doesn’t mean the Irish don’t have a significant talent advantage. They are the bigger, stronger, and faster team overall.
We’ll find out how Notre Dame will react to what they didn’t do well last week and maintain what they did do well. They have to respect the opponent, but this game will be even more about their preparation than it will be what Toledo is bringing to the table.