Scouting Report | Navy
It has been a rough couple of seasons for Ken Niumatalolo at Navy. Coming off of a bounce back 11-2 campaign in 2019, they are 5-13 in their last 18 games. They’ve managed to only win two games this season and bowl eligibility is a pipe dream.
It’s a young team and that is generally a bad thing at a place like the Naval Academy where experience and development matters more than anything else.
Navy is ranked 104th in F+ and unless they play far better than they’ve shown this season, they have no shot to upset Notre Dame.
Injuries
C Pierce Banbury was injured against Tulsa and is questionable for this matchup.
LT Jake Cossavella is out with a season ending injury.
Injuries on the offensive line have forced them to start young players up front and they have had injuries in the secondary too. S Mitchell West is out for the season and S Kevin Brennan has been out with a shoulder injury.
Offense
When they have the triple option humming, it’s a tough offense to stop. They aren’t exactly humming at the moment.
They’re 108th in points per drive, 119th in EPA per play, and are ranked 111th in F+.
Expected Strengths
Everyone knows what Navy does well that allows them to stay in games. They do a great job of holding on to the ball and limiting possessions. They’re 4th in time of possession.
SB Carlinos Acie has some juice and is dangerous if he gets a crease.
That’s it? Yup, that’s it.
Potential Weaknesses
If Navy doesn’t run it well, then they aren’t able to do much on offense. They’ve scored 20 points or less in six of their eight games because of it.
They aren’t efficient. They’re 107th in opportunity rate (getting four or more yards when four yards are available). Navy is averaging 3.69 yards per carry and have had only three games where the average has been greater than 4.0 YPC. When they’re been rolling on offense in previous years, they typically average over 5.5 YPC.
They are dead last in yards after contact.
Because of the young offensive line, they don’t execute at a high level to maintain long drives and explosive plays would help them, but they have only seven runs of 20-yards or more all season.
They’re 109th in 3rd down defense, 125th in red zone TD percentage, and when they do pass, they are dead last in sack rate giving up 25 sacks on 110 drop backs.
Scheme
They script early in the game and will always show one or two formations that are atypical for them. There always seems to be some kind of wrinkle on the opening drive whether it’s a counter trey to a slot back or a fullback counter that they don’t run in their normal offense from drive to drive.
As well as the traditional double wing look for their triple option, they have mixed in some pistol and shotgun to spread teams out to open some running lanes in the past.
When they do that, Notre Dame will need to make it a priority to out-man them in the box. There also seems to be a little less fullback read and more specific calls on the dive (so less triple option).
They don’t have that dynamic player at quarterback so they don’t run as much quarterback sweep and designed runs specifically to keep the ball in his hands. An unbalanced line is normal for them and they overload with wing backs in short yardage.
3rd and short is a dangerous down because they have confidence they will frequently go for it on 4th down. They have 28 4th down attempts this season.
Key Players
QB Tai Lavatai - His long run is 20-yards. Not super shifty, but good size at 6’3” 210.
SB Carlinos Acie - He had a 64-yard run last week against Tulsa
FB Isaac Ruoss - He has had double digit carries in all but one game.
Key for Notre Dame
Tackle, tackle, tackle I think it’s pretty obvious what a large point of emphasis will be for Notre Dame this week. They have to tackle well and keep those yards after contact numbers low for Navy.
Defense
Navy’s defense has been stressed more this year because the offense hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. The numbers for them are worse, but I don’t think the level of play has been as bad as it seems.
They’re 93rd in points per drive, 49th in EPA per play, and 99th in yards per play and that isn’t good by any means, but my eyes tell me this is more of an average defense than a bad one.
They’re 73rd in F+ on defense.
Expected Strengths
They’ve forced fumbles nine fumbles and have seven interceptions. They’ve only recovered four of those fumbles, though. Creating turnover opportunities is something they emphasize and are pretty good at.
The run defense has been good. They’ve only allowed four runs of 20-yards or more all season and that’s with some injuries at the safety position.
Navy is a physical team in their front seven and that’s led by a solid LB group. Brian Kelly mentioned that LB Diego Fagot could start for just about anyone in the Power 5 and that’s the truth. He’s the best player on their team and we’ll likely hear his name a lot on Saturday.
Potential Weaknesses
They don’t have a dynamic pass rusher and Navy is 111th in sack rate. They have only nine sacks on the year and are tied for 101st in TFLs per game. They don’t have a group that is built to produce a ton of Havoc.
The biggest issue for them has been the secondary. PFF has them 125th in the country with their coverage grade. They’re giving up 8.4 yards per attempt and are 102nd in pass efficiency defense.
They don’t have the athletes to match up and them having to play young players at safety has hurt them. They’ve allowed 13 receptions of 30-yards or more (76th), but the rate they give up those receptions is higher than many of the teams ranked below them because of the limited attempts.
There will be plenty of opportunities for big plays in the passing game.
LB John Marshall has given up 16 completions on 16 targets.
Scheme
Brian Newberry came from Kennesaw State (FCS) and the best way to describe his scheme is unpredictable. It’s a 4-2-5 base, but they will show several different fronts including three or five down.
There is so much more movement, more coverage looks, and more variety than what they used to be. They can’t do as much with the young safeties playing and they don’t want to put them in positions to fail.
The Notre Dame offensive line has to be prepared for late stemming from the defensive line and late flashes from the linebackers on blitzes. They did a bit more of that in Newberry’s first season, but if there was ever a game to take more chances, this is it.
Key Players
LB Diego Fagot - He has 13 Havoc plays and is their leading tackler.
LB Johnny Hodges - Solid in coverage and has also been a playmaker for their defense.
S Rayaun Lane - The freshman is improving week to week and has made some plays, but given up some as well.
Key for Notre Dame
7 and not 3
This is always the key against Navy. When the offense gets into the red area, they have to score touchdowns instead of kick field goals.
Big plays through the passing game will help solve that and I expect Notre Dame to attack down the field a bit more in this game.
Special Teams
K Bijan Nichols is 11 of 14 on the season, but he’s only 2 of 5 from 40-yards or longer.
P Riley Riethman is 79th in the country in punting average.
They gave up a punt return touchdown vs Houston, but outside of that the coverage teams have been solid.
In Navy’s first win of the season they blocked a punt for a touchdown and an extra point against UCF. They’ll need something similar to happen if they’re going to have a chance against Notre Dame.
Overview
This is not a good Navy team and they’ve been particularly hurt by the injuries on the offensive line and the lack of a dynamic player at quarterback. I just don’t see them scoring enough points to compete with Notre Dame.
If the Irish get up on them early, this could get ugly.