Scouting Report | Ohio State
Notre Dame has matched up with Florida State and Texas in season openers on the road in the last decade, but they haven’t faced a challenge quite like the one they’ll face against Ohio State.
Texas and FSU were down during those matchups. Ohio State is a program that considers an 11-win season, capped by a win in the Rose Bowl, a down year.
Ryan Day responded to that dip by making some significant changes to his staff. He’s hoping that those changes combined with a boatload of talent coming back, 73% returning production, can spark them to not only the top of the Big Ten again, but the top of college football. They along with Alabama are considered to be the pre-season favorites to win it all.
Ranked 3rd in SP+ and FEI projections respectively, OSU has elite players on offense and elite potential on defense. They have signed 15 players ranked in the ISD Fab 50 from 2019-2022, have the best trio of offensive skill players on any team in the country, and they’re 34-4 under Day.
They have lost some high profile home games early in the season in recent years (Oregon in 2021 and Oklahoma in 2017) so it would not be surprising to see Notre Dame come out and beat them.
Saying it is one thing, doing it is another. The Irish will have their hands full facing a College Football Playoff type of opponent to kick off the season.
Injuries
RB Evan Pryor tore his ACL in camp and will be out for the season. He was expected to be another big play presence in the backfield for them.
Edge defender Mitchell Melton tore his ACL in the spring. He was competing to start at their hybrid end/linebacker position.
They have had injuries at cornerback in camp, but they have said that they expect everyone to be available against Notre Dame.
Offense
LSU’s 2019 offense was as good of a college football offense that anyone has ever seen. It says it all that there are some who have suggested the 2022 Ohio State offense could be just as good.
Last year they finished 1st in OF+, 1st in EPA per play, 1st in yards per play, 1st in points per play, and 1st in points per drive. They are projected 1st in SP+ and 1st in FEI headed into the season. Seems pretty good!
With their quarterback, top receiver, and top running back all returning, they are likely going to be ranked 1st in most of those categories again.
Welcome, Al Golden! This is the offense you'll be facing in week one.
Expected Strengths
I could get this part over with quickly by just selecting D) all of the above, but let’s go through it anyway.
It starts at quarterback where CJ Stroud is one of the best in the country. The MVP of the Elite 11 when he was in high school, he had not attempted a pass before last season at Ohio State, yet emerged as a prolific passer. He threw 44 touchdowns and averaged 10.1 yards per attempt.
He really took off after the first five games and PFF had him graded as the top quarterback in the country from that point on. He has good touch, is accurate no matter the depth of the throw, and could end up as the top pick in the NFL Draft next spring.
Stroud is not a dual-threat and they don’t use him as a runner often, but they will try to sneak in a run with him on a 3rd down to move the sticks. He did break off a 48-yard run for a touchdown in 2020 against Michigan State. He’s a good athlete on top of being able to make every throw imaginable.
The wide receiver room is loaded and led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led them in receiving last year and the other top two receivers both went in the first round of the NFL Draft. He’s an elite route runner who is masterful at creating separation. That helps him produce big plays after the catch (790 YAC led the Power 5).
He was first in the country in yards per route run. He does most of his work out of the slot and Notre Dame can’t get caught with him versus a linebacker. The Irish will likely have to bracket him at times and they will be in nickel often.
They can’t have all of their focus on him, though. That’s because Marvin Harrison Jr. (three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl) is going to be a difficult player to match up against as well. He’s big (6’3” 206), strong, and has hands like his Hall of Fame father.
Former 5-stars like Julian Fleming and Emeka Egbuka are competing for the third wide receiver spot and after suffering a couple of season-ending injuries, it appears Kamryn Babb is healthy and ready to contribute as well. They have weapons on top of weapons at the receiver position.
TreVeyon Henderson could be the top back in the country this fall. He rushed for 1,248 yards (6.8 per carry) as a freshman and was a big play waiting to happen.
The O-line has the potential to be a Joe Moore Award contender with former 5-star Paris Johnson at left tackle (moving from guard), massive Dawand Jones at right tackle (6’8”), and Donovan Jackson is already getting touted as their next All-American candidate at guard.
The biggest addition may be former UCLA offensive line coach Justin Frye, who not only did a very good job with the Bruins and at Boston College, he should bring some of those Chip Kelly run game wrinkles to add to the OSU attack.
They should once again be capable of producing explosive plays (5th in the country of plays of 30-yards or more) and even if Notre Dame makes them settle for long drives to score points, they were 2nd in the country in 3rd down conversion rate in 2021.
This offense will be the best Notre Dame faces all season.
Potential Weaknesses
I know Notre Dame fans are worried about their running back depth, but Ohio State is more thin at the position than the Irish. They only have three healthy scholarship backs. It probably won’t be an issue in this game, but one more injury could make things a bit dicey.
The offensive line wasn’t very good in OSU’s two losses last season and they’ll get tested by a Notre Dame front seven that could be a top-five group in the country.
In OSU’s 11 wins, they rushed for 6.5 ypc. In the two losses they rushed for 3.1. OSU got bullied in the Michigan game. They couldn’t run the ball and Stroud was pressured on 47.2% of his drop backs.
Jones is slimmed down from last year at right tackle, but he struggled versus some speed off the edge at times last year. That’s something to think about with a guy who will have to block Isaiah Foskey at times, who won with a speed rush on a majority of his sacks.
Expectations are high for Johnson, but he didn’t grade out great in pass protection last year at guard. That is also something to monitor. They also have some questions about their depth on the offensive line as well so if a starter goes down, they could be in some trouble.
The team that played them about as well as anyone on defense last season was Nebraska. They kept everything in front of them minus one big play to JSN for 75-yards. That was more of a great play from him making defenders miss than anything that was schemed up well.
Nebraska made OSU drive the field and played a bunch of zone. OSU couldn’t run on them (3.0 YPC) and Stroud had two interceptions and two more turnover worthy throws.
Scheme
Ryan Day has been the head coach since 2019 for Ohio State, but he’s been the offensive coordinator since 2017. He’s from the Chip Kelly coaching tree and is no stranger to playing up tempo.
In 2018 and 2019 OSU was 5th and 7th in the country in plays per game on offense.
Like all of the best play-callers, Day adjusts to the strengths of his players. In 2017 when he had JT Barrett at quarterback, OSU was a heavier run team (91st in pass play percentage). With Dwayne Haskins, they flipped to 36th in pass play percentage. That number adjusted in a big way with Justin Fields (110th and 102nd) and has now flipped back with Stroud (21st).
They don’t use Stroud in the run game and with their receiving talent, it’s clear why they are a pass-first offense.
TE Jeremy Ruckert is gone to the NFL and that might not be insignificant. There have been good reviews about TE Cade Stover coming out of camp, but it’s to be determined if the former defender is going to used the same/as much as Ruckert. That matters because Ohio State was a pretty heavy 11 personnel team last year (one back, one tight end) and this year we may see them playing more with 10 personnel (four receivers).
With how Notre Dame handled (or didn’t handle) 10 last year, I’d say it’s a certainty that OSU will be using four receivers on the field a good amount in this matchup. Add in the fact that their receiver room is stacked with talent and it all makes sense.
My guess is Notre Dame will be in sub-package defense for a good chunk of this game. That means either traditional nickel (with TaRiq Bracy) or big nickel (with Ramon Henderson or another safety). They aren’t going to ask Jack Kiser to cover a slot receiver because they know how that match up will go. I think we’ll see two linebackers on the field for a good portion of the game. I’d expect to see a lot of 3x1 and 2x2 formations from the Buckeyes.
There could be a little bit of cat and mouse when it comes to matching personnel because OSU may try to go heavy and then get Notre Dame to match that, but that also plays into the strengths of Notre Dame with their front seven so we’ll see if Day chooses to go that way.
Key Players
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba -16.9 yards per catch and no one in the country had more receptions of 15-yards or more last season.
QB CJ Stroud - The only three games that OSU scored less than 30 points, Stroud threw the ball 54, 54, and 49 times.
RB TreVeyon Henderson - He had eight carries of 30-yards or more last season.
OT Paris Johnson - A really good athlete for the position and moving to his more natural position from right guard.
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - Ranked #2 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List and set to explode as a star after only 11 catches as a freshman.
Key for Notre Dame
Make them drive the field
If Notre Dame is giving up the big play, it’s going to be a long night in Columbus. If they can limit the explosives to as few as possible, then they’ll have chances to create Havoc and put OSU into long yardage situations.
Defense
Ohio State has zero excuses for not being a top defense on an annual basis. So when they didn’t finish in the top-30 in DF+ last season after getting lit up by Alabama in the College Football Playoff the previous year, changes were going to be inevitable.
In comes former Oklahoma State and Duke coordinator Jim Knowles. His defense finished 4th in DF+ last season and they were a Havoc producing machine.
OSU is projected 15th in SP+ and 18th in FEI on defense heading into the season, but they could end up being a top-10 group before all is said and done. The bigger question will be if the can play like a top-10 group on Saturday night against the Irish.
Expected Strengths
The Buckeyes didn’t have a truly dominant pass rusher in 2021, but they have a few candidates who could end up being that good this fall. The defensive line is loaded with former blue-chip recruits and the edge rushers should be as good as any in the country.
Ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau flashed as freshmen, but the former 5-stars have star potential this season. Add those two to Zach Harrison and the matchups with Blake Fisher and Joe Alt against this group are going to be must-watch.
The pass rush only finished 78th in sack rate in ‘21, but if the young ends live up to the hype and Knowles confuses protections more with his blitz packages, it could be up there with Clemson as the best pass rush group Notre Dame will play this fall.
They are loaded with talent at the safety position and added Oklahoma State transfer Tanner McCalister to the mix as a nickel. S Ronnie Hickman shined as a hybrid defender and Josh Proctor is a thumper who can get downhill in a hurry. He missed most of last season, but is now healthy.
There’s been good buzz coming out of camp on Tommy Eichenberg, the brother of former Notre Dame offensive linemen Liam Eichenberg. He had 17 tackles in the Rose Bowl and is a reliable player versus the inside run game.
CB Denzel Burke was a revelation as a true freshman last season and he didn’t allow a single touchdown. It feels premature to suggest he’s earned lockdown status, but he should be one of the better corners in the Big Ten in 2022.
This defense has incredible raw talent. The pieces are there for them to be great.
Potential Weaknesses
The linebackers were pretty average last season. They don’t lack athletes, including former running backs Steele Chambers and Chip Trayanum, but it’s yet to be determined if they have a great player at the position.
Coverage was an issue and they don’t have anyone at linebacker who looks like they will be able to match up with a Michael Mayer or deal with a player like Chris Tyree if they are matched up one on one.
The other corner spot opposite Burke is a bit of a question mark. Cameron Brown returns after starting there last season, but he’s dealt with some injuries and just been okay. They were also banged up at the position all camp and at times only had four healthy scholarship corners at practice.
On paper they should be fine and they say they’ll be fine in terms of depth for the opener, but it’s at least a small concern for them.
The situational defense for OSU was atrocious last year. They finished 100th in 3rd down conversion percentage and 124th in red zone touchdown percentage. It would be shocking if they were that bad this year, but it’s no lock that they can go from terrible to even above average there.
McCallister got beat badly for a touchdown in man coverage by Lorenzo Styles in the Fiesta Bowl and he was beat another time deep as well on what could have been another big play. That’s a matchup Notre Dame should look to take advantage of again.
In their 11 wins they gave up only 2.93 YPC. In their two losses they gave up 7.16 YPC. It’s not a coincidence that the two best offensive lines they faced ran the ball that well on them. Notre Dame’s offensive line should be one of the best they face this season.
It took time at Knowles’ other stops for the defense to peak. Will they have his scheme humming so early in the season? They want to mix it up quite a bit, so it’s not a given.
At Oklahoma State, his defense finished 76th in DF+ in his first season and 49th in year two. They were great in his last two years (13th and 4th), but it didn’t happen overnight.
The talent he is inheriting is better than the talent he had at Oklahoma State, but it doesn’t change that his group was below average to start of his tenure. They finished 94th in yards per play against Power 5 competition.
Scheme
Under Jim Knowles, Oklahoma State mixed it up a lot with fronts and coverages. Although the base is a 4-2-5 with three safeties on the back end, we will probably see a little bit of three down linemen as well. With what they have up front, it should be primarily four down.
They will mix fronts, have late movement with alignments, and generally are trying to confuse blocking schemes on as many downs as possible. They have a Jack position that is essentially like Notre Dame’s Vyper and that player will be the one who drops out more often to make it three down.
Knowles has the reputation as a heavy blitz guy, but I think what has made him a great coordinator is how unpredictable he is. The defensive line talent he has should be good enough to generate a good amount of pressure rushing just four so there may not be as many pressures as we saw with him at his previous stop.
It would be fair to expect a lot of simulated pressures where someone is dropping out and they are bringing a linebacker. So it may not always be five rushers, but the protection has to be prepared for the rush to come from anywhere.
One thing Oklahoma State was very good at was getting linebackers and safeties to blitz from depth. That’s something that the protection and Tyler Buchner needs to be aware of. The backs will have to be able to react quickly to adjust to the late blitzers.
The corners were in man coverage over 40% of the time, but they do disguise things well so tempo can be the friend of the Notre Dame offense to keep them vanilla in that sense.
They will try and run matchup zone as well and that takes a lot of strong communication from the back seven defenders. Will it be clicking on all cylinders early on? That’s going to be critical for them to avoid breakdowns.
I’d expect them to attack the mesh with Tyler Buchner in the game. That’s something Notre Dame has to be ready for. The safeties are very active in the run game and using three safeties allows the linebackers to be a bit more aggressive with the safeties there to try and take away some of the RPO throws that Notre Dame will attempt.
Notre Dame was able to take advantage of some matchups in the passing game in the Fiesta Bowl and they’ll have to do the same against the Buckeyes. It’s very likely they are going to load up to stop the run and try to force Buchner to beat them passing the football. It will be up to Tommy Rees to target the right matchups and Buchner to take advantage of those plays.
Key Players
CB Denzel Burke - 12 pass breakups and one interception as a true freshman.
DE Jack Sawyer - An advanced pass rusher for someone his age, he’s going to be a handful to block.
DE JT Tuimoloau - He arrived late to campus as a freshman, but still saw enough action to add 5.5 Havoc plays. He should more than double that this fall.
DE Zach Harrison - Maddenly inconsistent, but freakish talent whose production doesn’t match his tools.
S Ronnie Hickman - His 98 tackles led the team by a wide margin.
Key for Notre Dame
Win up front
Notre Dame’s tackles have to be better than Ohio State’s ends. Notre Dame’s offensive line has to impose their will on the Ohio State defensive line. Marcus Freeman has said that the Irish are an offensive and defensive line driven program and that has to be true in this matchup. If the Irish dominate OSU up front, they will have success running the ball and gain control of the game.
Special Teams
K Parker Lewis transferred from USC and was expected to compete to be the Buckeyes starting kicker, but he hasn’t been cleared by the NCAA yet. It might not matter much as K Noah Ruggles returns and he made 20 of 21 field goals last year. He isn’t known to have the strongest leg, though. His range was inside of 50 last year.
That might not matter at all if Lewis gets cleared and takes over kickoff and long field goals. It also might not mean much as they’ll have the kind of offense that they’ll feel comfortable going for it inside the opponents’ 40 often.
P Jesse Mirco is an Australian kicker who was very good in his first season (42.3 average, but 17 of 31 kicks inside the opponents’ 20).
They have really good options in the return game. JSN can return punts and is capable of breaking big returns and Egbuka averaged 29-yards per kick return last season.
Overview
No one should underestimate the challenge that’s in front of Notre Dame. Ohio State is bringing back the best quarterback-receiver-running back combination in the country and they have a roster that was built with blue-chips. Only Alabama has compiled more talent than them in the last four years.
They made some changes to try and cover up some warts on the offensive line and on defense and if those problems aren’t completely patched up, it opens the door for Notre Dame to go into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes. Notre Dame is going to have to limit them as much as they can on offense and Tommy Rees is going to have to call a great game to help Tyler Buchner succeed in his first career start.
Navy/Black Notre Dame Fighting Irish 12oz. Low Ball Tumbler and 2.5oz. Ceramic Shooter Set
