Maybe it’s an overreaction to underwhelming performances from Alabama and Georgia this past weekend, but it doesn’t look like there’s going to be a truly elite national champion this season in college football.
There is no 2019 LSU with their unstoppable offense or a 2021 Georgia with plethora of NFL talent on defense. The discourse could change in November, but it looks like a really good team is going to win it all this season and not a truly great one.
We know Notre Dame isn’t an option to win it all and there probably isn’t a title contender on their schedule the rest of this season despite five of their final eight opponents who are either undefeated or have only one loss. That’s because despite those teams having win-loss records that would indicate that they still have a shot to win a championship, they all have pretty glaring weaknesses that will likely be their undoing.
There’s a path to beat all of these teams. The Irish can win all of their remaining games if they can exploit their opponents’ weaknesses and nullify their strengths. It starts this week with BYU and winning the line of scrimmage.
BYU is 122nd in EPA (expected points added) per rush on defense, 110th in opportunity rate*, and 119th in stuff rate (% of runs that go for 0 yards or less). This is a defense that Notre Dame should be able to run on and have plenty of success doing so.
(*Opportunity rate description via Football Outsiders: the percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.)
On the other side of the ball, getting them into 3rd and long will be critical because quarterback Jaren Hall goes from one of the highest rated passers in the country on 1st down (NFL rating of 132.1) and in 3rd and medium (126.7) to below average on 3rd and long (71.5).
If they can contain those big play receivers and create difficult scenarios for Hall, they’ll keep BYU’s offense from having much success.
For a deeper dive into BYU, check out ISD’s scouting report on the Cougars.
Beat BYU and then it’s on to Stanford for the Irish. Here’s a quick peak at their strengths and weaknesses and similar looks at the remaining opponents on Notre Dame’s schedule
Stanford (1-3)
SP+ rankings: 46th on offense, 106th on defense
Red flags: offensive and defensive line play
It’s incredible that what helped make Stanford into a Pac-12 power is now the number one reason why they have gone 12-22 since 2019. They stink up front.
The defense is 127th in yards per carry, 123rd in EPA per rush, 131st in opportunity rate, 131st in stuff rate, and 115th in sack rate.
It gets worse for the defense because they also have been bad at defending the pass. They’re 117th in EPA per pass and are 104th in yards per attempt against versus FBS opponents.
Even their top corner, Kyu Blu Kelly, is having a miserable start to this campaign. The opposing NFL passer rating for quarterbacks when targeting him this fall is the highest on the team.
On offense, the line has been just as bad. They are 122nd in stuff rate and are 128th in sack rate. The tackles in particular have not been very good. In true pass sets starting tackles Walter Rouse and Myles Hinton have PFF grades of 31.3 and 49.8.
Things are not great for David Shaw and they recently lost their top running back for the season.
What to watch out for: WR Michael Wilson
I could have gotten away with writing “not much”, but Wilson has taken a step this season and is averaging 20.1 yards per reception. He had a monster game against Washington (6 for 176 and two touchdowns).
If Stanford is going to have a chance at beating Notre Dame, they’ll need a player like Wilson to be great.
UNLV (4-1)
SP+ rankings: 99th on offense, 94th on defense
Red flags: pass protection and explosive plays against
UNLV has played a lot better than those SP+ numbers would indicate, but throw that out for a second and focus on some things they’ve struggled with.
They are 93rd in sack rate on offense. Left tackle Dayvion McDaniel has given up 16 pressures this season and right guard Amani Trigg-Wright has been equally shaky.
The defense has also given up 13 plays of 30-yards or more, which is 107th in the country. They haven’t exactly played any good offenses either. Three of the four FBS offenses they’ve played are ranked lower than 100th in SP+ and the only one that isn’t, North Texas, is 65th.
What to watch out for: the run defense
They are 23rd in YPC against on defense and 24th in EPA per rush. Again, they haven’t faced any great offenses this season, but no one has much success running on them.
Syracuse (5-0)
SP+ rankings: 68th on offense, 51st on defense
Red flags: protecting the quarterback and run defense
Add Syracuse to the list of teams that the Irish will face that have struggled to keep their quarterback upright. They are 106th in sack rate and gave up six sacks against Virginia. The line is only partially to blame with that because quarterback Garrett Shrader hasn’t had the best pocket presence. PFF has put five of the 13 sacks that Syracuse has allowed on Shrader.
The run defense has been a bit of an issue for them as well. They’re 115th in EPA per rush, 104th in opportunity rate, and 101st in stuff rate. The sack numbers and their game against Wagner have masked the real numbers against the run for them. Take out sacks and they are giving up 5.0 yards per carry.
What to watch for: a good running game and havoc on defense
It’s no surprise that Syracuse is running the ball well. Sean Tucker was one of the best returning running backs in the country and Shrader is a legitimate threat as a runner. He’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry. They are 25th in average line yards and 29th in stuff rate.
The defense might have some issues against the run, but they don’t give up many explosive plays. They’ve allowed only 10 plays of 20-yards or more (4th in the country).
It’s the havoc that really makes them difficult to deal with, though. They have a 19.5% Havoc Rate and have playmakers like LB Mikel Jones (18 Havoc plays in the last two years) and CB Garrett Williams (22 in his last 15 games).
Clemson (5-0)
19th in SP+ on defense, 25th in SP+ on offense
Red flags: pass defense
This isn’t just a one game thing for them. The pass defense hasn’t been nearly as good as they are used to at Clemson. They are 92nd in EPA per pass and have given up 22 receptions of 20-yards or more (121st).
The young corners have struggled. Nate Wiggins has had six flags thrown against him this season and young corners like Fred Davis II and Jeadyn Lukus have given up a lot of plays. They aren’t getting after the quarterback as well either and that’s hurt the coverage. They are only 76th in sack rate, which is shocking when you consider the talent they have amassed up front.
Whether Notre Dame can take advantage of those corners is questionable at this point in time, but for a place that normally plays elite defense, they haven’t played up to their standards.
What to watch: wide receivers, run defense, and havoc
Despite the lack of sacks, the defense is still producing plenty of havoc. They are at 21.5% and have several players on all three levels of the defense who are capable of making plays.
The run defense has been elite. They are 4th EPA per rush and 4th in YPC against them.
Their offense is much better than it was a season ago and a lot of that has to do with quarterback play. DJ Uiagalelei has improved quite a bit and he’s also getting plenty of help from his receivers and tight ends. They are fantastic in contested catch opportunities. Clemson’s top-five receivers have winning contested catches at 70.3% rate, which anyone would take in so-called 50/50 ball situations.
Navy (1-3)
SP+ rankings: 123rd on offense and 69th on defense
Red flags: pass defense and the offense in general
When you run a triple option offense and you’re 113th in EPA per rush and 105th in stuff rate, that’s a pretty big problem to overcome. WOOF.
131st in EPA per pass and 127th in yards per attempt against is rough on defense as well. Memphis torched them through the air with receptions of 26, 37, 41, 50, and 79 yards.
Tackling in the secondary hasn’t been great and they have some corners who Notre Dame can pick on.
What to watch: run defense
With how bad they’ve played the pass, one would think that the defense has been brutal, but they have played the run really well.
They are 22nd in YPC, 7th in EPA per rush, 12th in opportunity rate, and 20th in stuff rate. All of that probably didn’t need to be listed because it’s pretty clear that Notre Dame will likely have a lot of success throwing against them, but at least Navy can tout their success in stopping the run.
BC (2-3)
SP+ rankings: 112th on offense and 64th on defense
Red flags: the offensive line and CB Elijah Jones
Anyone who has watched BC play this year knows their offensive line has all new starters and they’ve been bad. They are 126th in sack rate, 111th in EPA per rush, 118th in opportunity rate, and 131st in stuff rate. Phil Jurkovec has been pressured on 41.2% of drop backs.
Jones has been picked on and has had five flags thrown against him this season. He’s in man to man 43.5% of coverage snaps and PFF has him with the 4th worst grade in the country for a corner in man coverage.
What to watch: Zay Flowers
At least they still have Flowers and he’s still one of the best receivers in the country He’s a deep threat, but also an extremely dangerous player after the catch. He’s sixth in the nation in yards after catch.
If there is one player on BC that can give them a chance to beat Notre Dame in November, it’s Flowers.
USC (5-0)
SP+ ranking: 13th on offense, 58th on defense
Red flags: run defense
Don’t be fooled by Arizona State not running on this USC defense. That was a case of bad versus bad and USC’s bad winning.
This USC defense is 125th in EPA per rush, 100th in YPC against, and 106th in opportunity rate. If Notre Dame can keep building on what they’ve done in the running game, this could be a big day on the ground against the Trojans.
The pass protection is something to monitor because they haven’t played any teams with a decent defensive line yet, for now it’s just been average.
What to watch: the running game, explosives in the passing game, and the pass rush
Is the running success a mirage because of the bad defenses they’ve faced? Maybe, but the results have been very good so far.
They’re 3rd in EPA per rush, 1st in opportunity rate, and 3rd in stuff rate. Their top two backs are both averaging more than 6.0 YPC and Caleb Williams is a dangerous runner as well.
When you marry that success with a passing game that is capable of connecting on big plays down the field, 13th in receptions of 20-yards or more, it's an offense that is going to be tough to defend.
The pass rush has been very good for them on defense. They are 10th in sack rate and that pressure they put on has been a factor in leading to 12 interceptions, which leads the nation.
With USC right now, the question will be whether all of the things they are good at will be sustainable and if they can get better at what they have been very bad at. If things stay the same for them, that game in Los Angeles to close the season will be a difficult matchup.
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