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Notre Dame Football

Scouting Report | Stanford

October 12, 2022
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12 wins used to be a great season for David Shaw. Now it’s his win total since 2019.

Stanford is 12-23 in their last 35 games and their only win this season is against Colgate, an FCS program. They are 0-4 vs FBS/Power 5 competition.

Ranked 77th in F+, they just lost a crushing one against Oregon State when they gave up a long pass at the end of the game. Prior to that they had been blown out by USC, Oregon, and Washington.

It’s desperation time for Shaw, who seemed like he could be locked in at Stanford for as long as he wanted a few years ago. Losing this game might be the catalyst that creates his exit from the program.

Injuries

RB EJ Smith out for the season and it’s a huge blow to their running game. The son of Emmitt Smith was very good to start the season before his injury.

OG Branson Bragg medically retired before the season and he was set as a starter.

They are expected to get RT Myles Hinton back after he missed the last three games, but LT Walter Rouse is most likely out as is RG Levi Rogers.

CB Kyu Blu Kelly is expected to be back after missing the last two games. He’s their best corner.

Offense

The offense has evolved from what they used to be and it’s helped them a little, but only a little.

They are 63rd in EPA per play, 85th in points per drive, and ranked 58th in OF+. They’ve only averaged 5.47 yards per play vs FBS opponents.

Expected Strengths

It starts with QB Tanner McKee. If he’s on a different team, he’d be getting a lot more hype as a top NFL prospect. He throws a great deep ball (61.1% completion) and when he has time, he’s as accurate as any QB the Irish will play this season.

Though he’s not a runner, he’s not a statue in the pocket and can take advantage of running lanes as a scrambler.

It’s not surprising that they have a receiver group that is built on winning 50/50. Michael Wilson and Brycen Tremaine have combined to catch 9 of 14 contested catches. Wilson is 6’2” 209, Tremaine is 6’4” 212, and Elijah Higgsin 6’3” 234.

It’s a different group than any the Irish have faced this season.

Wilson has had a great season so far and has had eight catches of 20 yards or more. Tremaine is an absolute beast on back shoulder throws.

TE Benjamin Yurosek has had a bit of an underwhelming season, but he’s a threat after the catch and had five catches for 87 yards against Notre Dame last season.

RB Casey Filkins runs very hard and he’ll gain plenty of yards after contact if Notre Dame’s defense is rallying to the ball.

When they get into the red zone, all of those big receivers are a problem. They are 27th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Potential Weaknesses

They haven’t been healthy on the offensive line and no matter who is playing, they’ve struggled to open holes for the running backs.

They are 86th in yards vs FBS opponents, 89th in opportunity rate, 119th in stuff rate. There is no David DeCastro on this O-line. Not even close.

They also have struggled in pass protection. They are 123rd in sack rate and 117th in sacks allowed per game. The tackles in particular have not been very good. Four different players have played and none of them have been very good, especially when they are in true pass sets rather than play-action.

Washington had a pressure rate 40.5%. The rate against Oregon was much lower (21.6%), but that’s because the Ducks blitzed them and Stanford had to get the ball out quicker to protect their backup tackle who was playing.

Notre Dame should have a significant advantage against their O-line.

Scheme

Stanford added the Wake Forest slow-mesh RPO concept to their offense and they’ve had some success with it because of McKee’s decision-making, but it really doesn’t look much like Wake Forest at the moment.

When they get one on ones outside, they are going to take those shots down the field and that hasn’t changed from what they’ve always done.

What has changed is that they play less heavy personnel because they don’t have the players to do that anymore. It’s primarily an 11 personnel (one back, one tight end) offense now.

Key Players

QB Tanner McKee - He will make a handful of “wow” throws that will keep their offense moving.

RB Casey Filkins - Not dynamic, but a tough runner.

WR Michael Wilson - 20.7 yards per reception this season and had a monster game against Washington. Has finally emerged as a true WR1.

TE Benjamin Yurosek - Had a 50-yard reverse against USC and is due for a breakout game.

Key for Notre Dame

Dominate them up front without dedicating extra bodies to the run

They want to try and take advantage of those situations where they can pull the ball on RPOs, but if Notre Dame takes away the easy ones there and bully their O-line, there aren’t a lot of options for Stanford when that happens.

Defense

This defense stinks. Again.

It’s been a long time since they had a great defense and they have continued to decline. They are 128th in EPA per play, 122nd in YPP, 123rd in points per drive, and are 100th in DF+.

Expected Strengths

They have been stingy in the red zone and are 27th in red zone touchdown percentage. That’s better than nothing.

Potential Weaknesses

The run defense is 126th in yards per carry, 129th in EPA per rush, 130th in opportunity rate, and 130th in stuff rate. They aren’t fast at linebacker, are light on the edges (both starters under 240), and have zero game-wreckers up front.

It gets worse. They also have been bad at defending the pass. They’re 114th in EPA per pass and are 109th in yards per attempt against FBS opponents.

Even their top corner, Kyu Blu Kelly, is having a miserable start to this campaign. The opposing NFL passer rating for quarterbacks when targeting him this fall is the highest on the team. He’s a better player than that, but it says a lot about the pass defense as a whole.

Oregon State went after CB Ethan Bonner with numerous deep throws. He was lucky to have a player drop one where he was beaten, but still gave up 101 yards on four catches.

The pass rush pressure rate is 23.5%. The best pass rusher is a true freshman. They don’t create very many negative plays either. The Havoc rate is 13%.

Scheme

They are primarily a four down team now, but they remain extremely vanilla. They aren’t a heavy blitz team and aren’t doing much to confuse quarterbacks on the back end.

Even with that, they put their corners on an island a fair amount and Notre Dame should be able to take advantage of some one on ones.

Key Players

CB Kyu Blu Kelly - A pre-season first team All Pac-12 pick, a healthy Kelly should be closer to the player he was last season.

S Kendall Williamson - 2nd on the team in tackles and reliable in coverage.

Edge David Bailey - A true freshman who leads the team in pressures.

Key for Notre Dame

Be nice, until it’s time not to be nice

Okay, it’s more like stay patient until it’s time to pounce on an opportunity, but this sounds cooler.

Notre Dame should be able to drive the football on Stanford and they’ll have chances for explosive plays too, but if Tommy Rees can continue to do what he has done and set things up as the game goes along, the dam will break.

Special Teams

K Joshua Karty is 4 for 4 on field goals this season. He struggled last year from beyond 50 yards, but he’s made his only attempt so far in 2022.

P Ryan Sanborn has been their punter the last four seasons and he’s solid, but not spectacular. They have been good with their coverage units, but don’t have anyone dynamic in the return game.

Overview

This is a game that sets up well for Notre Dame in terms of matchups. I guess everyone matches up pretty well against this defense, but I do think the line of scrimmage will be won significantly by the Irish. If Notre Dame gets up on them early, this could get ugly.

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