Scouting Report | Navy
It’s been a frustrating year for Navy. That sentence could be repeated for the last three seasons and four of the last five.
After a fantastic start to his run as the head coach at the Naval Academy, Navy has fallen back down to earth under Ken Niumatalolo. They are 3-6 this year and 10-21 the last three seasons.
They don’t play any less hard than they did when he first arrived, but the novelty of the offense isn’t what it used to be and playing conference opponents year after year gives teams an edge defending it. That combined with not having a dynamic quarterback has them in the position they are in now.
They are capable of giving Notre Dame a game. They played Cincinnati close and everyone knows they will bring their best when they play the Irish. The reality is that they just aren’t very good this season.
They are ranked 92nd in F+.
Injuries
Starting quarterback Tai Lavatai is out for the season and he wasn’t a great athlete by any measure, but the decision-making part of the offense is what will be missed with him.
Offense
When Navy has to replace a lot on offense, they struggle. They had to replace a lot of players and they haven’t been very good outside of a couple of performances this year.
They are 80th in points per drive, 109th in offensive success rate, 122nd in yards per play, and are ranked 105th in OF+.
Expected Strengths
They want to be one of the most efficient running teams in the country and they aren’t that, but they can still challenge defenses. They are 43rd in EPA per rush.
QB Xavier Arline is filling in for Lavatai and he’s a more explosive athlete. He had runs of 32 and 27 yards last week and one of those was on a scramble.
Potential Weaknesses
So, that’s about that for the strengths.
Everyone knows the passing game is a weakness and they’ve had to attempt more passes than they did all of last season. They are 120th in opportunity rate, which is their rate of four yards or more when four yards are available. 3 yards and no dust to their name is more appropriate for them.
At least it would be if they weren’t 73rd in stuff rate. They have way too many negative plays when they run and they are in trouble when that happens.
Though they did have a couple of huge days rushing against Tulsa and SMU, they had only 176 vs Cincinnati. That’s the second best defense they will face this season after Notre Dame.
106th in red zone touchdown percentage is what the doctor ordered for Notre Dame’s red zone defense as well.
Scheme
They will script plays early in the game and will often show one or two formations that are atypical for them. There always seems to be some kind of wrinkle on the opening drive whether it’s a counter trey to a slot back or a fullback counter that they don’t run in their normal offense from drive to drive.
They may choose to spread Notre Dame out a bit more than they normally do because of Arline. I would also expect a little bit less fullback read and more specific calls on the dive (so less triple option).
With Arline I think we’ll see quarterback sweep and designed runs specifically to keep the ball in his hands. An unbalanced line is normal for them and they overload with wing backs in short yardage.
3rd and short is a dangerous down because they will frequently go for it on 4th down. They aren’t great with their power success rate (converting on 3rd and 4th and short), but still have 31 4th down attempts this season (tied for second most in the country).
Key Players
QB Xavier Arline - Navy has 13 rushes of 20-yards or more this season. Arline has four of them in limited touches.
RB Maquel Haywood - 6.4 yards per carry. He can get to the corner with his speed.
FB Daba Fofana - Leads the team in rushing.
Key for Notre Dame
Tackle, tackle, tackle
It’s always about assignment football with Navy and the most important part of the assignment is tackling well. If the defensive backs tackle as well as they did against Clemson, it should be a good day for the Irish.
Defense
The defense is frisky. That’s the best way to put it, which is how they’ve pretty much been every year under Brian Newberry (minus the 2020 season). Not good, but frisky.
They are 74th in points per drive, 112th in YPP, and ranked 64th in DF+.
Expected Strengths
It’s a real thing that they've played well against the run. They are 14th in EPA per rush, 11th in opportunity rate, and 7th in stuff rate. It’s an aggressive defense that is trying to create negative plays and a 19.2% Havoc rate is really good.
They’ve forced 10 fumbles this season so that is something to make note of in a game with limited possessions.
The aggressive approach has translated well in the red zone too. They are 10th in red zone touchdown percentage.
Hybrid safety/linebacker John Marshall is having a monster season. He’s been a havoc machine and he’s an impact defender when he blitzes.
Potential Weaknesses
The flip side of the coin for them is that the aggression hurts them deeply against the pass. They are 131st in EPA per pass, 126th in PFF’s coverage grade, and give up 8.8 yards per attempt (124th). They are 118th in giving up passing plays of 20-yards or more.
They just don’t have the athletes in the secondary to match up. If there’s any game where Notre Dame can jump start the passing offense back to normalcy, it’s likely this one.
Houston ran on them pretty successfully and they also haven’t played a team that plays heavy like the Irish do. That part of it could be a very tough matchup for the Midshipmen.
Scheme
It’s a 4-2-5 base, but they will show several different fronts including three or five down. There is so much more movement, more coverage looks, and more variety than what they used to do. They blitz more than any team Notre Dame has faced this season. That’s part of the reason why they are so boom and bust.
They have backed off a tiny bit from that in recent weeks, but they are going to have to take chances to try and get Notre Dame off schedule.
Key Players
LB John Marshall - Having an incredible season. He already has 20 havoc plays.
LB Colin Ramos - An undersized Will linebacker, but he’s been a playmaker. He has nine total havoc plays.
Edge Jacob Busic - Leads the team in sacks.
Key for Notre Dame
Don’t get away from who you are
I know they have played well against the run, but Notre Dame just proved that they can pretty much run on anyone when they are playing well. If they stick to who they are, the running success will come and then they can take some play-action shots as well.
Special Teams
K Daniel Davies is 10 of 16 on the season. That’s been an issue for them.
P Riley Riethman is averaging 45.5 yards per punt.
They’ve had two kicks blocked this season so the Irish just might keep their streak going.
Overview
Everyone knows the drill. If Notre Dame plays clean, they will win big versus Navy. If they play sloppy, then it can turn into a tighter than it should be type of game. If the Irish start fast, it could get very ugly based on how Navy’s season has gone so far.
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