Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Pitt
Pat Narduzzi is probably at the top of the list of unlikable coaches in the eyes of Notre Dame fans. Going all the way back to his days as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State, he’s never been shy about his feelings about Notre Dame.
Maybe it’s because he hasn’t coached on a team that has beaten the Irish since 2010. He’s 0-3 as a head coach against them with the last loss being a 45-3 beatdown during the 2020 season.
Narduzzi helped Pitt take that next step to get over that 8 win hump in the last two seasons with them winning 20 games combined. His defense was a huge part of that, finishing 23rd and 31st in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking). That might be difficult to duplicate with the numbers of personnel they lost, including a game wrecker at defensive tackle, Calijah Kancey.
They took a step back on offense last fall after losing first round quarterback Kenny Pickett, star receiver Jordan Addison, and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. They’re rebooting everything again on offense and trying to find similar success with Pittsburgh native Phil Jurkovec at quarterback and new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr. hoping to rekindle some “magic” that they appeared to have together when both were at Boston College in 2020.
That’s going to be hard to do as well because this offense doesn’t have a Zay Flowers at wide receiver or a Hunter Long at tight end and the line won’t be as good as the one BC had.
Everything for Pitt is going to depend on how well they have developed their roster because they lost almost all of their best players from last season and all signs point to them moving back to the middle rather than taking that next step as a permanent ACC contender.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They’re ranked 41st overall. They’re 40th on offense and 49th on defense.
Key losses
The Panthers' lost their leading passer, rusher, receiver, their best pass-rushers, and their top-four tacklers . It’s basically a “Other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?” type of scenario.
3-technique defensive tackle Kancey was the best interior pass rusher in the country. He wasn’t Aaron Donald, but the closest thing they’ve had to him since Donald left. He’s pretty much irreplaceable.
LBs Sirvocea Dennis (94 tackles, 18 Havoc plays) and Tyler Wiltz (50 tackles) are also gone. They have some returning experience, but Dennis’ presence as a blitzer is going to be missed.
Edge John Morgan was their best edge rusher (20.1% pressure rate vs true pass sets) and he’s transferred to Arkansas. They also have to replace edges Habakkuk Baldonado and Deslin Alexandre who left for the NFL. That makes it five of their top six in total pressures who aren’t on the roster in 2023.
Nickel Erick Hallet and safety Brandon Hill were both selected in the NFL Draft.
QB Kedon Slovis transferred to BYU, but it never seemed like a fit in the first place. That’s not as significant as losing WR Jared Wayne (over 1,000 yards receiving, 62.5% on contested catches), RB Israel Abanikanda (5th round pick), and OT Carter Warren (4th round pick).
Pitt lost the same amount of NFL Draft picks (six) after the 2020 season and they won 11 games the next year, but they also had more key players returning as well as players who were ready to emerge as stars.
Key additions
Good old Phil Jurkovec gets one more shot at sending out a bitter Instagram post before he plays the Irish in October. His success was greatly impacted by poor O-line play and injuries in his final two years at BC, but his penchant for turning the ball over (4.5% turnover worthy plays in his career is bad) and inconsistent accuracy has been a problem that he has yet to fix.
WR Daejon Reynolds (Florida) is a former 4-star prospect who has only caught 12 passes in his career. Pitt is expecting him to be a starter for them this fall.
RB Derrick Davis was a defensive back at LSU and has moved to running back at Pitt. He rushed for just under 4,000 yards in high school and he’s the most intriguing pick up for them in the transfer portal.
S Donovan McMillon (Florida) was a former Notre Dame target as a recruit who didn’t see much playing time with the Gators. He has the potential to thrive as a downhill defender in Narduzzi’s scheme.
Top returners and returning production
They are 119th in overall returning production. They’re 106th on offense and 106th on defense. (WOOF)
WR Konata Mumpfield is a productive player (122 catches the last two seasons) who gets bumped up to WR1 status. He hasn’t been a big play guy for them (nine targets and zero catches on deep ball attempts last season), but he’ll be a reliable option at the very least.
TE Gavin Bartholomew showed a lot of potential in the first half of 2022, but his production fell off the map in the final six games. He caught only five balls on 15 targets for 30 yards. They need him to look more like the player he was at the beginning of the season.
They do return RT Matt Goncalves and C Jake Kradel, both of whom were named 2nd team All-ACC in the preseason. Them and returning G Blake Zubovic give Pitt at least some stability returning on offense.
Edge Dayon Hayes is going to be counted on to play more like the player he was in 2021 when he put up nine Havoc plays. At least shown he can make plays on Saturdays. Defensive line coach Charlie Partridge is going to have to once again conjure up some magic and turn some of the less productive rotation players into studs.
LB Bangally Kamara (11 Havoc plays) and former Notre Dame LB Shayne Simon (six pass breakups and great in coverage) are important pieces to build around while Pitt figures things out up front.
CB AJ Woods (16 Havoc play), CB MJ Devonshire (11 Havoc plays and took two pick sixes), and CB Marquis Williams (five career interceptions) are the strongest group on defense.
Pitt has to figure out the front seven, but at least they have these three as their foundation.
Two big questions
Is Jurkovec salvageable?
At one time there was buzz about Jurkovec leaving after his first season at Boston College. Then the next two years happened and he bounced back home to play a sixth-year and get one more shot to be the quarterback he was projected to be.
I don’t see it happening for him because we’ve seen more than enough to know his interception and accuracy issues are very real, but he’s better than the player he was the last two years at BC and will get a chance to prove it at Pitt.
Is the roster built to replace all of those losses?
It’s a significant amount of production to lose for any program and typically the only ones who lose that much on both sides of the ball and are as good or better the next season are the top tier recruiting programs. Pitt is not that.
They really need their transfers to hit as well as having several players who have been on the roster to make a huge leap with their development.
Partridge is one of the best defensive line coaches and evaluators in the country. The defense has put up an incredible 199 sacks in the last four seasons and his defensive line is responsible for 130.5 of those. They’ve lost talent, but have always had players ready to step into bigger roles to replace them. They’re going to need some players who have barely played to be studs or have rotation players to show promise as pass rushers that they haven’t up to this point in their careers.
How they’ve recruited
Pitt’s blue-chip ratio in the last four cycles is 10.3%. They’ve built the program on the strength of evaluation and development. All things considered, they’ve done a pretty darn good job of that with 14 players drafted in the last three years.
Two of the blue-chips they signed in 2020, Jordan Addison and Israel Abanikanda, are no longer there. They’re also waiting for 2021 blue-chips DT Elliott Donald and edge Nakhi Johnson to start delivering on the field and they need guys like Davis and McMillon to look like the players they were projected to be out of high school.
There isn’t an obvious 3-star grand slam on the roster like Kancey and unless they get a few to show similar talent this fall, it looks like they will take a step back while they wait for some developmental players to step forward.
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