6 Thoughts on a Thursday

Along with InsideNDSports publisher Eric Hansen and former Notre Dame great Mike Golic, I took part in the Notre Dame Senior Alumni season preview show for the third straight year. It will be available tonight for anyone who wants to check it out.

We did the normal preview stuff where we went over the offense, the defense, the schedule, and how Marcus Freeman has adjusted in his second season as Notre Dame’s head coach (spoiler alert: pretty well. More on that later).

At the end of my participation with the show, I had to give a prediction on Notre Dame’s record. I said 11-1 and I think they’ll end up winning two of three games against Ohio State, USC, and Clemson.

I would have leaned closer to 10-2 prior to seeing Notre Dame in fall camp. While a lot can change during a season to alter expectations, my feelings about the ceiling of this 2023 Fighting Irish squad have changed over the last couple of weeks.

It’s not that I still don’t have questions about certain areas of the team or that there won’t need to be improvement at specific positions throughout the course of the season, but I look at the roster now compared to how I felt about it in the spring and I realized that they can check more boxes as a team.

It’s really about what they can check off on defense now that I was unsure about heading into August.

Back in January, after TCU was boat raced by Georgia in the national championship game, I wrote a piece about what it takes for a team to win a championship in the College Football Playoff era. It boils down to this on defense:

They need to recruit at an elite level (blue-chip ratio over 60%)

They need to have NFL talent on the defensive line (at least three NFL Draft picks)

They need to finish as a top-15 in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking for defense)

They need to create negative plays (all champions but one have had a Havoc rate of 18.6% or higher)

(You can find a quick advanced stats explainer here)

We knew headed into camp that Notre Dame already hit the blue-chip ratio (percentage of 4 and 5-stars signed during a four year recruiting period) threshold of 60% for champions in the CFP era (67.8%).

In the nine seasons I have covered fall camp for Irish Sports Daily, this is the most raw talent I’ve seen on the defensive side of the ball. They might not have the same kind of veteran talent at the top of the roster that the 2018 defense had, but the depth of the talent on defense, particularly with the second and third team compared to previous years, is obvious.

I feel safe in stating that Notre Dame has NFL talent on the defensive line. Not all are going to be drafted next spring, but there are likely going to be more than a few who end up selected by NFL teams at some point.

Rylie Mills, Jordan Botelho, and Javontae-Jean Baptiste are legitimate prospects. Jason Onye and Gabriel Rubio are on their way to playing themselves onto the radars of NFL scouts. Then there are several young pass rushers who are not quite there yet, but could very well be by the end of the season.

That also leads into the Havoc rate. The pass rush was fine in terms of sack rate last season (13th), but more consistent pressure leads to more havoc (tackles for loss, pass break ups, interceptions, forced fumbles). The defense looks more disruptive up front, the second and third level defenders are playing faster, and Notre Dame might have a top-five cornerback group in the country.

The final six games of the season they were at 17.8% and I think we’ll see that improve even more this fall.

I was confident that the defense was going to be better this season than it was last year. I thought being a top-25 or top-20 defense was a reasonable expectation in year two under Al Golden, especially because of the approach the staff was taking when it came to trimming down the playbook.

Now that I have a better grasp of the talent heading into the season, my expectations have changed. I think they can be a top-15 defense and if that happens, they’ll be true contender to make the CFP.

2. What the CFP champions have been on offense leads into what I question about Notre Dame heading into the season.

It’s not that I don’t think the Irish will be vastly improved on that side of the ball with Sam Hartman, but I wouldn’t say I’m sold that they can be top-8 in OF+ (every national champion has had a top-8 offense in the CFP era).

Though they are still solidifying the guard position, there was nothing I saw or heard in the last couple of weeks that made me feel they can’t be a Joe Moore Award semi-finalist at the very least (a prerequisite for CFP champs with only 2016 Clemson as an outlier.) I think it’s fair to suggest they might not be firing on all cylinders in week 0 against Navy, but I do believe Notre Dame’s offensive line will get to where they need to be as the season progresses.

That part I’m less worried about in the long run. The concern more about the explosive pass game.

They will run the ball effectively, Hartman will be a huge upgrade at quarterback, and I like the young talent at receiver and tight end. I think they have the potential to be more explosive this season, but can they be top-15 in passing plays of 20+ yards? I don’t know the answer to that yet and I think it will depend on where things develop with most of their skill players throughout the season.

In the last five years in college football, an explosive passing game has been essential for an offense to be elite. 15 of the 20 CFP teams since 2018 have finished in the top-15 in explosive passing. None of the five teams who weren’t in the top-15 of explosive pass plays have won a game in the CFP.

That includes Notre Dame and it’s also why Michigan needs to slow their role in thinking they can win it all because they haven’t been close to explosive enough passing the football.

Notre Dame has finished in the top-15 twice during the CFP era. It was 2014 and 2019. Unfortunately that 2014 team had a whole list of other flaws that made it impossible to check the other necessary boxes needed to win. The 2019 team was probably closer than a lot of people think, but they also didn’t check enough boxes overall.

Explosive passing plays are also what Notre Dame has to defend against and that’s also why I’m bullish on the defense. They have the corners and the pass rush that will help them defend against teams like Ohio State (eighth in explosive pass plays last season) and USC (second).

3. ESPN’s Bill Connelly published his final 2023 SP+ projections yesterday and he has the Irish defense projected 13th.

They are 11th overall (26th on offense). The three opponents rated above them are Ohio State (second), Clemson (seventh), and USC (10th). It’s wild to see USC’s defense 47th considering how awful they were last year, but simply above average is all they need to be in order to win the last ride of the Pac-12.

Notre Dame’s strength of schedule rankings according to SP+ is 24th. They play those three in the top-10, but have five others who are in the “mushy middle” with Pitt (36th), Louisville (40th), NC State (42nd), Wake Forest (45th), and Duke (50th) all in the range of frisky to pretty good. I want to see these teams play this year before determining if they closer to one or the other, but there’s a possibility that all of them could end up being worse than where they are projected.

Each of them I would put in the category of being an injury or two away from going from 8-9 wins down to barely scraping by to qualify for a bowl game. I don’t see any of these teams ending up as a surprise top-25 opponent.

If you’re Notre Dame and you know that there are going to be three teams with top-10 talent you have to face, that’s about as good as you can ask for in terms of the rest of the schedule.

4. The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman gets some heat from time to time for some of his stories that lean towards hype pieces for certain coaches and programs, but I don’t know if there is a piece preseason of college football content that I enjoy more than his annual Freaks List.

People can argue with the rankings of certain players. They can argue with some of the times that are reported that don’t match up to how the players test at the NFL Combine. I think you can even argue that some guys probably shouldn’t be mentioned who are better suited for the Crossfit games than football. (I’m looking at Kenyatta Watson and his 16 career tackles over five seasons)

I don’t think they can argue that it’s an informative piece that highlights some special athletes, many of whom end up becoming star players (if they aren’t already) and high NFL Draft picks. If someone enjoys recruiting and the NFL Draft, then it's a must-read in my opinion.

There are three Notre Dame players on the list: Mills, Cam Hart, and Javontae Jean-Baptiste.

Feldman also mentioned that cornerback Jaden Mickey almost made the cut as well. A 380 bench for a 180 pound sophomore is eye-popping.

One thing that gets cited on there for Notre Dame players and many others is the GPS tracking of how fast they are on the field. It’s often mentioned that a player’s top speed is a specific miles per hour and I know that isn’t as recognizable for many fans in determining speed like seeing a 40-yard dash time, but GPS numbers are slowly becoming the norm with evaluating a player’s speed on the field.

Sometimes looking at a single top speed for a player can be overblown, but if someone is consistently playing at a very high speed, that definitely matters. And if a bunch of players are increasing their GPS numbers, then that is a very good sign for a team.

After seeing the Irish in person this August, I came away thinking that they had more “dudes” on the roster than in 2022. There was significant physical development with several players over the last year and many who made jumps from spring to summer. There are a lot more guys who look like they fit in physically as NFL prospects than before.

That’s a positive and it looked like the overall speed of the team has improved. That was just with the eye-test, but I also heard that the GPS ratings for many players is significantly faster than it was last year.

It’s not just that they have added speed with freshmen or that players are getting faster after more time in the strength and conditioning program. Whether it’s players being able to process faster on defense or a comfort level on offense, the team is playing faster.

I’ve covered the team long enough and graded recruits long enough to trust my own eyes when evaluating, but when a source confirms that the GPS rating for players is faster than it was a year ago, then I know it’s not just about a few players making Feldman’s Freaks List.

5. Maybe it’s related and maybe it’s not, but I also heard that Notre Dame’s staff chemistry is really good heading into the season. That’s the kind of thing that helps in communication with coaches working together for a common goal, but I also believe it can translate over to the players if the vibes around the program are good.

Adding that on top of Marcus Freeman having a good pulse of when to ramp things up and when to back off in camp is a very good thing.

Injuries can happen at any time and sometimes it’s about bad luck as much as anything else, but last year Notre Dame lost JD Price before camp and Avery Davis during camp to season-ending injuries and had Jayden Thomas and Cam Hart miss time with hamstring pulls. Jarrett Patterson hurting his foot, an injury that made him miss the Ohio State game and impacted him for most of the season, also happened in camp.

This year they’ve suffered some injuries, which is normal for any preseason, but Freeman has been smarter about knowing when to push and when to pull back with the team. Using John Wagle, Notre Dame’s associate athletic director for sports performance, as a resource has helped with making those decisions in Freeman’s second fall camp as head coach. It’s the last paragraph here that really displays why staff chemistry can be critically important.

“Yeah, I think the intentionality of how we practice has been big. I've been spending some time with John Wagle, and just kind of evaluated the total output of all the practices, and 'Hey, what are we trying to get out of this practice?' There are certain practices like today that won't change”.

“We had to have a jersey scrimmage. We had to play 100 plays. How do I make sure I can tweak the practices before this to try to perform at the level I want them to for this practice. And so, really kind of just utilizing some of the feedback and making small tweaks to the plan that we've set to ultimately, again, it's all about making sure for those 12 guaranteed opportunities that we have, that we perform at the highest level.”

“Nothing else matters. Really, that's what I told the coaches. This is about everything we do is to give our players the best chance to succeed. So, if we're not doing that, then shame on us. So that's what we've got to continue to focus on.”

“We all might have different opinions into how to make sure this team's prepared. We utilize our thoughts and opinions, but ultimately, everybody in that room, we want to make sure our players are able to perform at the highest level possible on those 12 guaranteed opportunities that they have.”

Most position coaches will want to do as much as possible in August because they are trying to get players prepared to start, get more evaluation opportunities, and have more chances to teach. They’re going to push for as many reps as possible, especially because the days of two-a-day practices are over.

Maybe Freeman has gotten some push back from his assistants in terms of the volume of work on some days, but when people who are working together get along, those disagreements don’t linger. That’s why staff chemistry matters and that’s benefiting the team before they even get into the season.

6. I’ve always been a big believer that all successful football teams need players with edge. There has to be enough players on the roster who walk the line of confident and cocky, physical and violent, and bring energy that needs to be tamed more than having that forced out of them.

I couldn’t point to a statistic or anything similar that can measure what that means to a team. I just know that having guys like Te’von Coney, Alohi Gilman, Kurt Hinish, Kyren Williams, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and others like them matter because a big hit or a big play in a moment can swing momentum in a game.

There’s a lot of guys like that on this Notre Dame team. I’m thinking of Jordan Botelho, Marist Liufau, Jason Onye, Blake Fisher, Benjamin Morrison, Jaden Mickey, Jaylen Sneed, Xavier Watts, and Sam Hartman as individuals who stand out to me in that respect.

Most of the players I listed didn’t have prominent roles last season. That’s going to change this fall and I think it’s worth monitoring how much of a difference it might make for them this season.

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