Scouting Report | Navy
The Ken Niumatalolo era is over, but don’t expect Navy to be drastically different under first year head coach Brian Newberry. The defensive coordinator for the Midshipmen before being promoted to the head job, he’s brought in an offensive coordinator that is tweaking what they do on offense, but not completely changing what helped the program become successful under Paul Johnson and Niumatalolo.
Navy is 17th in returning production with 76% of their offense and 74% of their defense coming back. They rank 102nd in Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections headed into the season, but Notre Dame fans know that how good they are can mean very little in terms of what kind of challenge they’ll present the Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame comes in favored by three touchdowns and they have certainly had games where they put the smack down on their annual rival over the last decade. They also have had four one score games that were less than comfortable for the Irish coaching staff.
In many ways, playing them to open the season is a good thing because of the extra preparation the defense has to face the triple option and it also helps things settle into focus the rest of the season without having to put in a completely different defense for one opponent.
The other side of it is that Navy has added some wrinkles on offense that Notre Dame will not have seen. There may be a bit of a feeling out process early in the game and, as always when playing the Naval Academy, getting off to a fast start on offense is necessary so Navy can’t count on limiting possessions and playing keep away.
Offense
Newberry hired Grant Chesnut as his offensive coordinator. They had coached together at Kennesaw State prior to Newberry leaving to become DC at Navy. He’s from the Paul Johnson coaching tree, so I would expect a lot of the base elements to stay the same in terms of the triple option and Chesnut had great success running that.
KSU reached the FCS playoffs four times from 2017-2021.
It’s not going to look exactly like what Chesnut did previously, though. This is what Newberry told The Athletic about the offense in the offseason.
“I don’t think the option is dead by any stretch,” said Newberry, downplaying the effect of blocking rule changes. “I do think we’ve got to get creative on how we do certain things. It’s going to help us evolve. It’s a time to call for creativity and to do things better. We’re going to be in the gun as well, we’ll use the tight end, and what we’re doing is different than anybody else in the country.”
So Notre Dame certainly will have prepared to face the traditional flexbone offense that Navy has run previously, but they also have to be prepared for wrinkles like RPOs, more quick game to the perimeter (flares, screens), and short crossing routes.
They have added a tight end to the offensive personnel and that will be as much about quick hitters in the passing game as it is about blocking.
Chesnut’s offense was a lot more diverse with some play-action concepts than we’ve seen from recent Navy teams, so they will still take shots down the field when they get opportunities, but Navy’s starting quarterback had an average depth of target of 15.7 yards last season. That number is going to go way down.
KSU was more perimeter oriented with a lot of their running game than Navy, but the elimination of cut blocking outside of the tackle box changed how explosive they were because they couldn’t get defensive backs on the ground as much to spring big plays. Some of these short passing concepts and getting yards after the catch from spread formations sounds like it might be their attempt at a solution to replace that.
They rank 116th in SP+ on offense heading into the season and it’s a mystery as to how good they’ll be and what exactly they’ll be in terms of identity. Becoming more diverse on offense feels like adapting to survive in college football, but they were successful on offense because of execution and by adding more to the menu, the degree of difficulty with execution will have gone up.
Expected Strengths
Chesnut’s had success as an offensive line coach. With four starters returning and the way his units run blocked at KSU (7th and 21st in PFF’s run blocking grades the last two seasons), I’d expect the O-line to be solid.
Potential Weaknesses
There’s more questions than answers about the offense as a whole.
Can they be explosive? Kennesaw State had 25 designed rush attempts of over 15-yards in 2022. They had almost double the previous season and it goes back to those changes to the rules regarding cut blocking.
Navy only had 36 rush attempts over 15-yards last season. Going back to 2019, with Malcolm Perry at quarterback, they had 68.
Do they have explosive players on offense? Can they find success being explosive in the passing game more consistently? It’s one thing to add in all of these elements with the passing game, it’s another thing to have it and be efficient executing it.
Two players return with a combined 20 catches from last season. No other returning player has more than one reception.
Navy was seventh in pass efficiency in 2019. They haven’t finished higher than 93rd since then. A lot depends on the quarterback and whether or not they have the receivers to make plays after the catch.
Chesnut’s offense threw it 17.4 times a game last season at Kennesaw State. Navy has averaged 10 passing attempts or less in six of the last 10 seasons. That leads into whether or not time to develop the passing game will take away from the time needed to run the triple option at the same level they have when things were humming.
If they’re going to pass more, it leaves more opportunities to get beat up front. They were 116th in sack rate.
If it's a quick game and the ball is getting out fast, then it might not matter. If they are mixing in more spread formations with true pass sets, they are going to struggle against a pass rush like Notre Dame’s.
Personnel notes
Lavatai and Horvath are listed as “OR” on the depth chart at quarterback. Both players are expected to play against Notre Dame.
QB Xavier Arline
- 5-9 176
- Only attempted 11 passes last season
- Was the most explosive running option at QB with five runs of 20+ yards
- Lacrosse player as well
QB Tai Lavatai
- 6-2 221 - Started the first eight games in 2022, but suffered a season-ending knee injury last fall. Missed the spring
- did not have a carry over 19 yards
- more of a short-yardage player and won the job because of decision-making over running ability
- 43% passer last season, but completed 66.7% in the short passing game
QB Blake Horvath
- 6-2 195
- Has no playing experience at Navy, played JV last season
- Ran the Navy offense for three years in high school and considered a good triple option decision-maker
- QB coach Ivin Jaspers says he is not a developed passer; completed 40% of his throws as a senior in HS
- split starters reps in the spring
FB Daba Fofana
- 5-8 205
- Rushed for 133 last year vs ND, but 101 came on his first three carries. Next 12 went for 32
- A hard runner through contact, 45 missed tackles forced
- targeted zero times in the passing game
FB Alex Tecza
- 6-0 195
- Stood out in fall camp, did not play last fall
- 2,085 yards rushing during senior season of high school
SB Brandon Chatman
- 5-9 176
- Considered one of the fastest players on the team
- Did not play with the varsity in 2022
SB Anton Hall Jr.
- 5-8 198
- Moved from fullback
- 77-yard touchdown vs Army and 62-yard touchdown reception against Memphis
SB Fabian France
- 5-9 176
- Converted cornerback who moved after two top returning SBs transferred
- Played with Steve Angeli at Bergen Catholic (NJ
) - All-American sprinter in high school
- No action last season, primarily played defense and kick returner in high school
SB Amin Hassan
- 5-7 176
- 8.8 yards per punt return, 18th in the country
- 57-yard return vs Tulsa
WR Jayden Umbarger
- 6-0 196
- 7 of 12 on contested catches in his career
- 40% of his targets were on deep passes
WR Camari Williams
- 6-2 210
- Only two targets last season and no catches
- Very good run blocker
TE DJ Donovan
- 6-2 240
- New England 220 pound champion wrestler as HS senior
- Scout team the last two seasons, switched to TE last year from DE
LT Connor McMahon
- 6-3 279
- Started 10 games last season at guard
- Their best run blocker in 2022, but struggled in pass pro
RT Sam Glover
- 6-3 270
- Struggled in first year as a starter. Lowest graded OL on the team
- Just plain awful in pass pro
LG Ben Purvis
- 6-3 293
- Projected starter after fall camp
- Did not play last season
LG Javon Bouton
- 6-3 285
- Was with the ones to start fall camp
- 1st team all-state as a senior in Texas
- Only played 3 snaps last season
RG Josh Pena
- 6-2 278
- 20 career starts
- 3rd team preseason All-AAC
C Lirion Murtezi
- 6-3 315
- Team captain, started six games in 2022
Key for Notre Dame
Stay disciplined
That always seems to be the key when playing Navy, but it’s especially so this season because they are adding some window dressing to the offense.
It’s all about assignment football and if the defense can stick to that, then the better athletes will win and we’ll see Notre Dame’s speed and playmaking take over.
Defense
It's remarkable what Newberry was able to do in terms of rebuilding Navy’s defense. They were 117th in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ defensive rating) the year before he arrived. Their average finish under Newberry is 52nd, including being ranked in the top-40 last season.
Navy ranked 37th in defensive SP+ in 2020 and 41st in 2022. Because of that, I’d consider their projection of 82nd in SP+ to not be worth all that much. Chances are that they will be far better than that.
It’s a 4-2-5 base, but they will show several different fronts including three or five down. There is so much more movement, more coverage looks, and more variety than what they used to do.
Last season they blitzed Drew Pyne on 65.5% of his drop backs. Out of the 18 plays Notre Dame ran before their kneel downs in the second half, they blitzed on 17 of them.
In the first half, Navy had a Havoc rate of 8.5%. In the second half, Navy had a Havoc rate of 38.9%. I’d say that selling out to try and stop Notre Dame ended up working out for them.
In hindsight, Notre Dame should have countered with playing faster tempo to not allow Navy to continually move defenders around late in the play clock. They also could have probably have down more quick hitting runs to the edge where they down block the interior and iso the outside defender with a lead blocker. The reality is that Navy completely sold out to stop the run and the way to beat them was pass and I’d be surprised if we don’t see something similar from them this season.
PJ Volker has been promoted to defensive coordinator from linebackers coach, but he’s going to bring that same mentality that Newberry had.
The big question for them is how much they will miss Striker (a hybrid safety/linebacker) John Marshall, who had 28.5 Havoc plays last season. If they can replace that production, then this is going to be a frisky defense again.
Expected Strengths
10 of their top 13 tacklers are returning. They have experience returning at all three levels of the defense and they will be able to hit the ground running when it comes to pressures and blitzes.
The run defense was 21st in EPA per rush, 9th in opportunity rate, and 7th in stuff rate. They did a lot of that with outmanning people up front.
They finished with the most sacks in the history of the program last season and were 10th in sack rate. So much of that came from blitzing, but their pressure is likely going to be a constant.
They had five sacks in the second half against Notre Dame last season.
Potential Weaknesses
This graph says it all about how the pass defense was compared to the rush defense.
Not great, Bob!
They were 131st in EPA per pass. Opponents averaged 8.6 yards per attempt against them. They were absolutely destroyed by Memphis (11.9 YPA) and the numbers would have looked even worse against Notre Dame if Pyne took more of those free access throws Navy was giving to them on the perimeter.
On the Chris Tyree touchdown, it was 21 personnel and Navy didn’t peel on the blitz to pick him up. This has been a frequent issue with them. They also put a nose guard in coverage against Audric Estime on his touchdown.
They don’t have the secondary to hang with Power 5 level receivers and the amount of blitzing they do leaves those players vulnerable too often.
Personnel notes
Edge Jacob Busic
- 6-4 256
- 10.5 Havoc plays in 2022
- Solid, but gets more wins the way they attack than him winning as an individual
NG Donald Berniard
- 6-0 256
- Started 30 games
- Small, but good motor
NG Landon Robinson
-6-0 278
- 33–inch vert and 600 squat
- Former linebacker featured on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List
DT Clay Cromwell
- 6-3 292
- Started all 12 games last season after he moved over from NG
- Most consistent interior DL vs the run
Edge Jordan Sanders
- 6-5 227
- 31 snaps last season, only one pressure on 15 pass rush reps
LB Colin Ramos
- 5-11 205
- 11.5 Havoc plays, their best returning player on defense
- Great blitzer who impacts the game as a pass rusher
LB Will Harbour
- 6-1 230
- Solid run defender, liability in coverage who can be attacked
Striker Xavier McDonald
- 5-11 207
- Only 18 snaps last season
Striker Jaxson Campbell
- 5-10 197
- Former WR, moved to safety in the spring
- Played multiple positions in high school, including QB
- Intriguing athlete playing the hybrid safety/linebacker position where John Marshall shined
S Rayaun Lane
- 5-11 197
- 18 career starts
- Torched by Jayden Thomas, 3 catches for 80 yards
- Torched against Houston, 8 catches on 8 targets for 130
- Missed 21 tackles last season
S Eavan Gibbons
- 5-10 199
- Started 19 games in his career
- Good going forward, but gave up a passer rating of 144.0 in coverage
Field CB Dashaun Peele
- 5-11 197
- Missed the spring due to injury
- 126 snaps last season, seven Havoc plays in five games.
- Expected to be their best corner
Bandit Mbiti Williams Jr.
- 5-9 180
- 4 targets, 4 catches for 109 vs ND last season including Colzie and Lenzy contested catch touchdowns
- Moved to safety, but can still be picked on in coverage
Boundary CB Elias Larry
- 6-0 197
- Started 8 games
- Only played one snap against Notre Dame
- Struggled as a run defender, gave up 19.2 yards per reception
Boundary CB Andrew Duhart
- 5-10 185
- Played special teams as a freshman
- One of their top-three corners, but only two snaps on defense last fall
Key for Notre Dame
Be smart with how they attack
Last year, Tommy Rees got too greedy trying to hit the big play in the second half when they could have gone death by thousand cuts on the perimeter. This year they’re going to have to mix that in and should be able to do that well with Sam Hartman and the RPO game as well as more tempo to not allow them blitz as much.
If they’re going to cheat the box over and over again, Gerad Parker needs to be okay with taking the free yards they can get in the passing game.
Specialists
It’s a new kicker in senior Evan Warren. He reportedly hit a 57-yarder in practice and has been the kickoff specialist for Navy the last two years.
He’s 0 for 1 in field goals in his career.
Junior Riley Riethman is back as the punter after averaging nearly 43.8 yards per punt. He's solid at the position overall, but he’s one of the best punters in the history of the program. His average is the third best in any single season by a Navy punter.
Navy blocked zero kicks last season.
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