The good thing about playing a team halfway through the season is that you have a pretty good idea of who they are.
Louisville is what their record says they are. They are undefeated for a reason.
On the other hand, they beat one team that has already fired their offensive coordinator (Indiana), one team who has already fired their defensive coordinator (Georgia Tech), and one team who benched their quarterback after the game (Brennen Armstrong). The other two wins are against Boston College and an FCS program.
So, how good is Louisville this year? It’s more complicated than 5-0.
That’s not to take away from what Jeff Brohm has done so far in his first season at his alma mater. They had to make a ton of changes on the roster on both sides of the ball. They have 12 starters who are transfers and several more who are contributors. He had to piece together a good chunk of the roster and added some quality players.
Brohm did a nice job at Purdue taking over a program that was in the hole and taking them to four bowl games in six seasons. He has better material to work with at Louisville and they have the potential to be an upper tier ACC program under his watch.
They aren’t there yet, but they are off to a good start. They are ranked 33rd in F+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking).
Offense
Ranked 28th in OF+, it’s been unsurprising to see them do well right away on offense.
Normally Brohm’s offense has been pass-happy, but he’s adjusted to his personnel this season by running the football more. They are 55% run and typically that is flipped with how much his offenses have passed at Western Kentucky and Purdue.
They are 24th in points per drive, 10th in yards per play, and 10th in overall EPA (expected points added).
Right now the passing game has relied heavily on play-action (38.9%) and they use it to take a lot of shot plays. They are in the top-15 in average depth of target and are constantly trying to scheme up explosive plays in the passing game.
Expected Strengths
They are 21st in EPA per drop back and 6th in EPA per rush. So much of that has to do with the explosive plays they have generated.
They have completed 17 passes of 30+ yards (2nd) and have nine rushes for 20+ (22nd).
Why do they run so much play-action? Well, they’ve been wrecking teams with it.
Starting QB Jack Plummer is averaging 13.6 yards per attempt when running it. That matches what they’ve done on early downs. They are seventh in EPA on early downs and Plummer is 19th in terms of 1st down pass efficiency.
They have plenty of speed at the skill positions and Brohm is someone who does everything he can to get his playmakers the ball.
Potential Weaknesses
That offense certainly sounds scary with those numbers, but they’ve been boosted by lighting up some bad defenses. They’ve played mostly bad defenses and one good one (NC State, 21st in DF+).
They were not good vs NC State (4.78 YPP and 13 points). NC State had the best pass defense they’ve faced and it’s not a coincidence that it was the worst performance by the quarterback that day.
They don’t have anyone who is a real threat at the tight end position and those players are below average. The O-line is average at best.
Plummer looks good on early downs and not very good in obvious passing situations with straight drop backs. He’s been bad on 3rd down (not new for him) and he’ll panic and look to run when the pressure gets to him.
This season his completion percentage is -18% vs blitz and -2.8 YPA. Indiana blitzed him on 43.% of drop backs, he was 4 of 11, 4.4 YPA and threw a pick. Georgia Tech blitzed him on 37.1% of drop backs. They were 1 of 11 on 3rd down in that game and he was 4 of 12 for 6.7 YPA vs the blitz.
They could not run the football vs NC State (0.69 yards per rush) and the teams they did run it on have not been good at stopping the run. Indiana is 113th in EPA per rush, GT is 127th, and BC is 104th.
They will often max protect on those play-action shots and TEs do not pass block well. It’s a problem for them.
Personnel notes
QB Jack Plummer
- 6-5 215
- Transfer from Cal and Purdue, started vs ND last two seasons
- Pocket passer, but showed he is willing to run with long scrambles vs ND last season
- Spent years in Brohm’s system at Purdue
- 84th in 3rd down pass efficiency, 91st in ‘22
- Has connected on the deep ball, but 4 INTs on them as well
- In tight games vs G Tech, Indiana and NC State he scrambled 12 total times
- Willing to put the ball in danger to avoid sacks, 6 INTs
- Four turnover worthy plays vs NC State
- Dropped to 48th in QBR after being 21st prior to NC State
- Had his lowest pass efficiency number of the season in ‘21 and ‘22 when he faced Notre Dame
RB Jawhar Jordan
- 5-10 185
- One of the more explosive RBs in the country
- three touchdowns of over 70 yards this season
- 5.74 YPC, 815 yards in ‘22
- 49 and 41 yard TDs in the bowl game last season
- not a big tackle breaker, but can be gone if he gets a crease
- 4.48 40 in high school
- 16 for 32 vs NC State
RB Maurice Turner
- 5-10 190
- RB3, 3.6 YPC
- Runs pretty hard, but not a lot of holes to work with
RB Isaac Guerendo
- 6-1 225
- Transfer from Wisconsin
- Has had 2 80+ yard touchdowns in his career
- 4.6 YPC, a good receiver out of the backfield
- Most of his yards have come after contact
WR Jamari Thrash
- 6-1 185
- Transfer from Ga State
- 1,122 yards last season
- Great speed, consistent playmaker
- Eight receptions of 20+, 19 last season
- 20.2 yards per reception
- 247 YAC, 11.2 YAC per reception
- Before NC State, 11 times aligned in the slot with 6 targets
- 10 times in the slot vs NC State
- 4 of 7 on deep targets
- Hit 21mph on TD vs Indiana, one of the fastest WRs ND will face
- Be aware of double moves
WR Chris Bell
- 6-2 225
- Big, jump ball receiver
- 3 for 85 vs NC State, 2 of 2 on contested catches
- Boom or bust, but averaging over 20 yards per catch
- ADOT is 19.5 yards
Slot WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce
- 5-11 170
- Leading returning WR, 31 catches in ‘22
- Big game vs BC, 3 for 110 with 2 TDs
- 98% aligned in the slot
WR Jimmy Calloway
- 6-0 190
- Tennessee transfer
- Very little production in his career, but 44 yard touchdown against Pitt in ‘21
- Former blue-chip recruit with explosive jumping ability
- Caught only 5 of 11 targets in first four
Slot WR Kevin Coleman
- 5-11 180
- Transfer from Jackson St
- Blue-chip recruit who signed to play for Deion Sanders
- 3 receptions of 30
+ - Over 90% aligned in the slot
- 16.6 per reception
- Average depth of target is 16.6 yards
TE Josh Lifson
- 6-3 235
- Mostly a blocking TE, 3 receptions in his career
- Below average blocker
TE Nate Kurisky
- 6-3 235
- Mostly blocks
- Below average blocker
- 3 for 28 vs NC State
TE Joey Gatewood
- 6-4 245
- Former blue-chip QB recruit who was a dual-threat
- Previously at Auburn, Kentucky, and UCF
- 34 yard reception this season, someone to watch out for on a gadget play
- Targeted him deep down the seam
LT Willie Tyler
- 6-6 320
- Transfer from LA Monroe and Rutgers
- Five pressures this season came in the Indiana game, could not block Andre Carter
- Did not play well against NC State, gave up a sack and three pressures
RT Eric Miller
- 6-7 305
- transfer from Purdue, two-year starter
- Given up the most pressures on the team
- Abused vs Michigan in ‘22
LG Michael Gonzalez
- 6-4 305
- Two year starter
- Had some trouble against Clemson’s interior in ‘22, but not many games like that
RG Renato Brown
- 6-4 315
- three year starter
- has had issues with penalties each season
- two big holding calls trying to pick up the blitz vs NC State
- plays way too high with his pads, has trouble dealing with lateral quickness
C Bryan Hudson
- 6-5 305
- Best player up front last season
- Started at Virginia Tech
- Solid all-around, over 2,700 snaps in his career
Key for Notre Dame
Early down success
It’s not overly complicated. If they can stop the run and limit the explosiveness of play-action on early downs, they’re going to be in very good shape against Plummer on 3rd downs.
Defense
Mark Hagen and Ron English are the co-coordinators after coming with Brohm from Purdue. They were 51st in DF+ in their one season together there and are 42nd in DF+ this season.
The defense is 40th in points per drive, 42nd in overall EPA, and 51st in YPP. They know what they have in the front four and have been a heavy zone team the majority of the time.
It’s a 4-2-5 defense, but the extra defensive back is more like a Rover who I would expect to be heavily involved playing downhill against Notre Dame’s running game.
Expected Strengths
The pass rush is very good, led by two of the better edge rushers that Notre Dame will have played this season. The defense is 14th in PFF’s pass rush grading and Ashton Gillotte and Stephen Herron, those aforementioned edge rushers, are both in the top-15 in total pressures.
They can give most teams problems in 3rd and long because of that pass rush.
Potential Weaknesses
They aren’t big at defensive tackle and those guys have been up and down at best. Herron is a much better pass rusher than run defender as well and can be run at.
They are 122nd in explosive passes against, so it’s a good game for Notre Dame to get healthy at wide receiver. The pass defense vs anyone who can pass has been rough.
They have had too many busts in coverage and the combined YPA vs Indiana, BC, and GT was 8.6.
Personnel notes
Edge Ashton Gillotte
- 6-3 270
- 8 havoc plays in ‘22, 23% win rate vs true pass sets
- 3 sacks vs BC
- 23 pressures this season
- 29.3% win rate vs TPS this season, one of the top edge rushers in the country
- Explosive laterally, have to protect inside against him and good on stunts
- Had a sack on a stunt looping inside from a Bear front against NC State
Edge Stephon Herron
- 6-4 240
- Transfer from Stanford
- 40 pressures in ‘22
- Not great vs run, but can impact the QB
- 2 sacks and a forced fumble vs ND last season
- 16 pressures this season
- 23.7% win rate vs true pass sets
Edge Kameron Wilson
- 6-2 230
- has trouble against the run
- 7 pressures, 20% win rate vs true pass sets
NT Dezmond Tell
- 6-1 290
- 2.5 TFLs
- A meh pass rusher
- An average player at best
DL Ramon Puryear
- 6-3 270
- INT vs G Tech off a tipped ball
- Mostly an edge, but moved inside
- Played more 3-tech vs Indiana with Lole out, didn’t play well
- Was impactful as an interior rusher vs NC State, 4 total pressures
- Now listed as the starter, they can run at him
DT Jared Dawson
- 6-2 305
- Got reached vs zone against GT a few times
- Rotation player who averages about 20 snaps
- A much better pass rusher who had 4 sacks in ‘22
DT Jeff Clark
- 6-0 290
- G State transfer, 9.5 TFLs in ‘22
- Hasn’t been great against better competition, lack of length hurts
DT Jermayne Lole
- 6-3 310
- 6th-year player, hasn’t played since 2020
- Arizona St transfer
- Missed the BC game
- 3-tech and 4i who was a plus pass rusher at ASU
- 10 TFLs in 2019, hasn’t quite looked the same at Louisville
LB TJ Quinn
- 6-1 230
- Leads the team in tackles, first year starter
- solid vs inside run game
LB Jaylin Alderman
- 6-1 230
- Missed the 2022 season
- Got caught on a TD to the back down the seam vs Indiana
- 3.5 Havoc plays
LB Antonio Watts
- 6-2 225
- RS frosh, converted safety
- 1.5 TFLs
Star Benjamin Perry
- 6-3 205
- LB/safety
- Hard hitter, physical player
- Can be a bit reckless with angles
S Devin Neal
- 6-0 210
- Baylor transfer
- 6 havoc plays
- Good run defender, but not great in a short area
S Josh Minkins
- 6-2 200
- Missed two games, 10 solo tackles in the other two
- Gave up a 30 yard TD vs BC out of the slot
- Cooked last year when asked to cover out of the slot, 155.8 NFL passer rating
S Cam’Ron Kelly
- 6-2 210
- UNC transfer
- seven career interceptions, two this season
- 145.8 passer rating last season out of the slot
- Solid tackler, occasional busts in coverage
- INT and a forced fumble vs NC State
CB Jarvis Brownlee
- 6-0 190
- 16.5 havoc plays in ‘22
- 4PBUs this fall
- Beat in press vs Indiana’s Cam Camper for 41
- Had trouble dealing with FSU’s Johnny Wilson’s size last season
- Got got vs Antonio Williams out of the slot last season for a big play
CB Quincy Riley
- 6-0 185
- 2nd year at Louisville, MTSU transfer
- 6 havoc plays, finds the football
- 11 career INTs, two vs Hartman and Wake last season
CB Storm Duck
- 6-1 200
- Battled injuries during career
- UNC transfer
- 14 Havoc plays last season
- 3rd CB, only 70 snaps this season
- Can get too aggressive, gives up too many explosives
Key for Notre Dame
Attack them deep
Georgia Tech, Indiana, and Boston College were 10 of 18 for 297 yards against them on deep targets (20+ air yards). The quarterbacks who completed those are 18 of 61 (29.5%) throwing the deep ball against everyone else they’ve played.
That’s not a coincidence.
Special Teams
Their kicker is Brock Travelstead, which sounds like a made up name from an adventure video game, but he’s a real person. He’s six of eight on field goals and hit a 53-yarder in the fourth quarter against NC State.
He’s also the punter and is averaging 42.4 yards per punt.
But wait, there’s more…he’s also the kickoff specialist and has been good there this season with 70% of his kicks as touchbacks.
Jordan also returns kickoffs and had a 40 yard return against Boston College and has two return touchdowns during his career. Notre Dame needs to boot it through the end zone as much as possible.
Coleman had a 26 yard return against NC State on a punt and was sensational as a returner in high school with 16 touchdowns.
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