Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Miami (OH)
It’s hard to believe that former Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin has been at Miami (OH) for a decade, but he’s about to coach his 11th season there. His 10th was his best at the program with them winning 11 games as MAC champions.
It was a long road to 11-3. When he took over, Miami (OH) went 0-12 the previous season. His first two years were a struggle with only five wins total, but it’s been a steady build since then.
He’s 51-43 over the last eight years and that includes five bowl games. This 2024 Miami (OH) team is the favorite to win the MAC again.
It’s largely because of a defense that only allowed 11.3 points per game in their final 10. They have some key pieces coming back and are expected to be the backbone of another winning season.
It would be a stretch to suggest they’ll be good enough to beat Notre Dame on the road this fall, but Martin is 2-2 in his last four games against power conference opponents after starting 0-9. Those two wins came against a three win Cincinnati team and a one win Northwestern team, though. The Irish are going to be quite a bit better than that.
Miami (OH) opens with Northwestern and Cincinnati this season, so Notre Dame should learn quite a bit about them before they head to South Bend.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
Miami is ranked 62nd in the post-spring SP+ projections. They are 110th on offense, 26th on defense, and first on special teams.
Key losses
That first on special teams is a bit misleading because they lost K Graham Nicholson (Alabama) and ST coordinator Jacob Gronkowski left for Pitt.
The secondary has to replace S Jacquez Warren, CB Yahsyn McKee, and nickel Michael Dowell from last season. That’s a combined 2,635 snaps they have to replace. No slot defender in college football gave up a lower passer rating than Dowell last season.
Edge Caiden Woullard (Oklahoma) was first team All-MAC and was one of the top pass rushers in the conference.
WR Gage Larvadain (South Carolina) was their leading receiver. He and former Notre Dame receiver Joe Wilkins led the team in targets and are both gone.
RB Rashod Amos (Ole Miss) had over 800 yards more than the next leading rusher. They benefited from him bouncing there from South Carolina, but he bounced right back to the SEC.
QB Aveon Smith (Alabama A&M) was a dual-threat insurance policy when Gabbert got hurt. Considering Gabbert’s history of injuries, it’s not an insignificant loss. He was at least steady in helping them close out the season after Gabbert went down for the season.
Key additions
RB Dylan Downing (Purdue) averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season. He has 190 career carries and they’re hoping he is another big back (6-0 225) who can be a big factor with more opportunities.
WR Kamryn Perry (Indiana) is a 5-9 165 jitterbug slot type and WR Andre Johnson (Arizona State) is 6-4 215 with 32 career catches over four years. They’d be going to power conference programs if they had production, but now they’ll get a chance to be important pieces on offense for Miami (OH).
Top returners and returning production
They are 42nd in returning production (54th on offense and 40th on defense). QB Brett Gabbert is one of those 37th year seniors in college football. He won the starting job at Miami (OH) as a true freshman in 2019 and has played every year since then, but had his 2022 and 2023 seasons cut short because of a shoulder injury and a broken leg.
He’s first team All-MAC in the pre-season and was playing well before his injury (8.6 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns against five interceptions). He’s an accurate passer whose completion percentage (59%) was hurt by a ton of drops in ‘23.
He was top-10 in the country in average depth of target and has a good enough arm to test defenses down the field as well.
He’ll be playing behind an experienced offensive line led by RT Ried Hoskey and LT Will Jados. Both are first team all-conference this pre-season and are multi-year starters. They also have two other returning starters up front.
WR Cade McDonald was the third leading receiver with 28 catches and he’s a very good punt returner. He finished 10th in punt return average last fall.
WR Javon Tracy should take over from Larvadain as the primary deep target. He had 22 catches and averaged 15.8 yards per reception.
RB Kenny Tracy (5.5 YPC) is the back most likely who is going to share carries with Downing. He’s a threat as a receiver as well with 41 career receptions.
Edge Brian Ugwu is first team All-MAC in the pre-season. He was a pressure machine off the edge and had 22.7% win vs true pass sets while putting up 12 tackles for loss. He was borderline unblockable in the MAC Championship game against Toledo when had 11 pressures.
LB Ty Wise is one of two returning All-MAC linebackers. Originally at Indiana, he’s been a force with 122 tackles, 15 havoc plays, and 28 pressures in ‘23. They use him off the edge as a pass rusher.
LB Matt Salopek is the other linebacker returning and Phil Steele has him as a third team All-American before the season. He’s a legit NFL prospect who finished with 143 tackles and 11.5 havoc plays.
He’s put up over 100 tackles the last three seasons and could end up as the rare player who has been in triple digits four times in college.
CB Raion Strader should be one of the best corners in the MAC this fall. He had 15.5 havoc plays as a freshman.
P Alec Bevelheimer is a first team All-American according to Steele. His 43.1 net punting average was tied for seventh in the country.
It’s not often a punter gets mentioned as a top player returning, but he’s on that level.
One big question
Can the defense and special teams do enough to keep them close?
That’s what got them to 11 wins last season. The offense would have been better if Gabbert had stayed healthy all year, but they only averaged 25.1 points per game against FBS competition when he was available.
They had a lack of playmakers at receiver (93rd in explosive passing plays) and don’t appear to be better there this fall. Losing Amos in the backfield doesn’t help either. They are going to struggle to score against a defense like Notre Dame’s.
The defense should still be good. It has to be as good as it was. Defensive coordinator Bill Brechin has taken them from 82nd to 66th to 12th in SP+ since he took over in 2022. They were 16th in yards per play, ninth in third down defense, six in red zone touchdown percentage, and I can keep going. 16th in EPA (expected points added) per rush and fourth in pressure percentage and eighth in sack percentage means they were great in just about every category.
Throw in six blocks and Chuck Martin could afford to be less aggressive on offense (128th in fourth down attempts) because he knew his defense could give them a chance to win every week.
The only way they have a shot at making it a game withNotre Dame is if the defense is that good again, which is going to be difficult with some new faces in the secondary.
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