6 Thoughts on a Thursday

Everyone knows the test Notre Dame’s offensive line will face by going on the road against Texas A&M in week one.

Their pass rush should be good in any environment. It should be especially difficult to deal with a loud crowd behind them forcing a silent count. Offensive lines with new pieces rarely look great in week one and given the circumstances, Notre Dame’s probably isn’t going to be great that night.

That’s sure to cause plenty of reactions, but the truth is that we will still have a lot to learn about the offensive line regardless of their performance to start the season. In an ideal world, a team settles on their best five to start the season and then sees them get better and better as the season progresses. It doesn’t always work out that way, though.

Sometimes there needs to be a reset.

That happened for Notre Dame in 2021 and they should be thankful for it. Joe Alt came into the lineup at left tackle as a freshman and changed the dynamic completely. Tommy Rees also adjusted how he shaped the offense and that was huge as well.

They implemented more quick game, more RPOs, and adjusted the running game to suit the personnel up front. Against Florida State and Cincinnati, the line had to block on 18 and 16 true pass sets (no play-action, quick game, and against at least a four man rush). The shift was drastic later in the season. The line had to only block on six true pass sets against USC and they didn’t increase that over nine until they felt more comfortable with the protection.

With Alt at left tackle and Blake Fisher back healthy at right tackle, they blocked on true pass sets 23 times in the Fiesta Bowl.

We’ll see how Mike Denbrock and Joe Rudolph decide to approach the passing game and protection against A&M, but it’s a safe bet that we’re going to see the confidence in the group grow as the season goes along. And if they don’t like what they see from the personnel early on, they will have the option to tinker and reset up front before they get to play Louisville at home in week five.

I think Notre Dame is going to end up fine on the offensive line this season, even if things might be bumpy to start. The one benefit of playing Texas A&M early is that it gives the coaching staff a chance to reassess things if they need to and it doesn’t have to feel like it was too late like it was in 2021.

2. I don’t think Miami (OH) is going to be good enough to scare Notre Dame too much, mostly because the offense, projected 110th in SP+, is going to find it extremely difficult to move the ball against the Irish defense.

I’m not sure that enough people know that Chuck Martin’s program is bringing with them a very good defense to South Bend, though. They are projected 26th in SP+ and finished 12th in SP+ last season. From my Miami (OH) preview:

They were 16th in yards per play, ninth in third down defense, six in red zone touchdown percentage, and I can keep going. 16th in EPA (expected points added) per rush and fourth in pressure percentage and eighth in sack percentage means they were great in just about every category.

They lost three key pieces in the secondary from last year, but they have three all-conference players in their front six and at the very least will represent a test for Notre Dame’s offense before things jump up a level against Louisville.

It’s the kind of test that should be a good indication of where things are headed with the offense as a whole. If they lack an identity before that game, they will be forced to find one during it.

That might feel weird to make that statement regarding a MAC team, but it sets up that way for a game they should still win comfortably.

3. Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore was interviewed by Fox Sports’ Joel Klatt and shared the reason why the Wolverines ended up running the ball 32 straight times on the road against Penn State. It had to do with the issues they had blocking first round pick Chop Robinson.

Robinson, who ran a ridiculous 4.48 40 and had a 1.53 10-yard split at the NFL Combine, was too explosive off the ball. That combined with the crowd noise and the impact that had on the offensive line was why Michigan had to adjust.

Michigan’s O-line had to block on only two true pass sets in that game. That’s not that different from the six true pass sets Notre Dame’s O-line blocked in 2022 against Clemson. The plan wasn’t to run the ball as much as they did that night, but Clemson couldn’t stop them, so they kept doing it.

There is a possibility that Denbrock will have to adjust versus Texas A&M edge Nic Scourton like Michigan did with Robinson. I’m certain that Notre Dame will have plans in place if Scourton is truly wrecking their game plan.

It should be mentioned that Denbrock’s offense at LSU was first in 1st down yards per carry and in early down EPA (expected points added). It’s much harder for a pass rusher to be a game wrecker if it’s 2nd and short.

Also of note, Riley Leonard had the highest yards per carry out of any quarterback before his ankle injury last season. (Hat tip to Clark Brooks for that stat)

4. I’ve been waiting for an excuse to use this quote Jack Kiser gave me on Al Golden making in-game adjustments. Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator Collin Klein is providing me an opportunity to do so.

Klein’s offense was extremely multiple at Kansas State. They would run Power Option with multiple tight ends on the field, but they also ran Hurry Up No-Huddle with a ton of 11 personnel against Texas. Quarterback Will Howard threw it 42 times in that game.

Against Texas Tech they played with two and three tight ends on the field the majority of the game. Against Texas they had one tight end play 74 snaps and played with two or more tight ends on only 10 snaps.

So, expecting the unexpected seems like a good way to put it with Klein and especially in week one at a new program.

Now, back to what Kiser said about the process of Golden making in-game adjustments:

”In the spring and in fall camp, we’re putting in a massive amount of defenses. When we get to game week, we’re only running a handful of stuff. We’re only doing what we practice all week.

“What happens a lot is in those in-game situations, it’s like, ‘Hey, remember in spring ball when we were doing this? We’re going to pull that out and that’s what we’re going to start doing.’ It’s not like a foreign concept to guys. We’ve repped it before. Maybe not that week, but it’s in our tool belt.”

If I had to guess, A&M will come out with lots of heavy personnel to start the game. They added three tight ends in the portal for a reason. That doesn’t mean they won’t flip it later on because Klein has been known to do that too.

On the opposite side, Golden did a great job in 2023 of pulling out things when the opposing offense was doing something new or unexpected. It’s near the top of the list of what makes Golden one of the best in the business.

5. An interesting point was brought up by irishtank6900 when USC lost their second stud defensive line commit in as many days.

He suggested that eventually Notre Dame fans should start rooting for USC to hold on to those players rather than lose them to Georgia. I don’t agree with that completely because Notre Dame is going to play USC every year and who knows when they might run into UGA again, but I do think that spreading things around is preferable for everyone not named Alabama, Georgia, or Ohio State.

When elite recruits choose different programs other than those three, it’s good for Notre Dame and everyone else who are chasing them. And I think every Notre Dame fan would agree that USC continuing in the spiral they’ve been in after Pete Carroll is a great thing for the Irish.

Lincoln Riley is still a brilliant offensive coach and he could make USC what every ND fan fears they can be, but that looks far less likely now than him eventually leaving for the NFL or even being pushed out.

Imagine if USC wins seven or eight games again this season and they strike out with top of the board recruiting targets on defense. That almost seems probable rather than simply possible and it would make his seat scalding hot in year four at the very least. We know what that tends to do for USC’s recruiting.

It’s crazy how different things can flip in a year because they were riding off winning 11 games and Caleb Williams winning a Heisnman after year one. The vibes aren’t nearly as good right now and that’s without even mentioning him alienating coaches and trainers in California.

I bet all of those guys were screaming, “Told you so!” when both kids from the south decommitted.

It’s crazy how Carroll was no one’s top choice, but he found the right mix of pleasing the locals and still recruiting well nationally. Riley doesn’t seem like he has any interest in following the example that Carroll set.

6. Ole Miss and USC were supposed to play a home and home series in 2025 and 2026. It was announced that they both agreed to cancel it, which is understandable given the challenges teams in the SEC and Big Ten are going to face with scheduling.

USC’s 2024 schedule has been discussed quite a bit. It doesn’t set up for much of a break given the level of competition from week to week, which is also why they tried to back out of their neutral site game with LSU to start the season. (LSU didn’t agree to it)

The Trojans play 11 power conference opponents this fall. It was 11 again if they had played Ole Miss, but they will surely replace them with an easier game at home. Ole Miss will do the same with USC off the schedule. Now they’ll only have to play Georgia, Oklahoma, LSU, and Florida in 2025 without adding USC to that group.

Some of these new matchups in the Big Ten and SEC will be fun because we haven’t seen most of them before, but unfortunately we’re going to see more of what happened with Ole Miss and USC. These other fun out of conference matchups are going to be canceled because their conference schedules are going to be hard enough to deal with.

USC playing Notre Dame should still end up being fine, but keeping that rivalry will force other games to not happen.

I took a peek at week one of the 2025 college football schedule and as of now it still features Georgia at UCLA, LSU at Clemson, Alabama at Florida State, and Texas at Ohio State. Week two has Michigan at Oklahoma and week three has Wisconsin at Alabama and Texas A&M at Notre Dame.

I think all or most of those games will still happen. Beyond that? I’m not sure.

The best way to ensure that those kinds of games don’t get canceled in the future is for a super league to form because if it’s the SEC and B1G against the Wendy’s Baconator conference, this won’t last long.

It’s not that programs haven’t backed out of contracts before for various reasons. It just feels inevitable that we’ll see this more frequently and it only makes me want to see college football get to the destination we all know it’s headed towards.

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