Notre Dame Opponent Preview | USC
USC has been attempting to return to glory since the end of the Pete Carroll era, but didn’t find it under Lane Kiffin, Steve Sarkisian, or Clay Helton. It has to be incredibly frustrating for USC fans to see Kiffin and Sarkisian specifically have success at other programs right now when they know how things ended for them in Los Angeles.
It looked like they had finally gotten it right when they went big by paying huge money to steal Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma. He was 55-10 in five seasons at Oklahoma and made the College Football Playoff in three of those years.
Riley made an immediate splash at SC by bringing over his star quarterback from Oklahoma who led the Trojans to an 11-1 regular season. They were a game away from USC making the CFP for the first time ever…then reality hit.
After that great start, Riley is 8-7 since. He’s 19-8 overall at USC, which isn’t what they expected after paying 10 million a year for their head coach.
He’s had three quarterbacks win the Heisman and become the number one pick in the NFL Draft. He’s also never won a College Football Playoff game, primarily because he’s never had defenses that were anywhere close to how good his offenses were.
They spent big money to add an all-star staff to try and fix the defense, but it feels inevitable that they will take a step back on offense. That plus a jump to the Big Ten and a roster that isn’t built to make a run at a national championship might mean Riley could find himself on the hot seat if he isn’t already.
SC still has the potential to be very good. They just don’t look as good as everyone thought they’d be entering Riley’s third season.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are the 21st in the post-spring SP+ projections. They are 5th on offense, 87th on defense, and 100th on special teams.
Key losses
There’s no bigger loss in college football than QB Caleb Williams. The 2022 Heisman trophy winner went first overall in the NFL Draft and was still very good in 2023. His ability to make something out of nothing is practically impossible to replace.
USC is almost completely turning over their wide receiver room. WR Tahj Washington and WR Brendan Rice were both selected in the 7th round of the NFL Draft. WR Mario Williams (Tulane) transferred after a disappointing ‘23. WR Dorian Singer (Utah) was supposed to be a Jordan Addison replacement, but underwhelmed with his production.
That’s four of their top-five receivers gone and they also lost WR Michael Jackson (Georgia) to the transfer portal.
RB Marshawn Lloyd (3rd round) was great after transferring from South Carolina, but he’s one-and-done at SC.
RB Raleek Brown (Arizona State) didn’t become the explosive playmaker that people expected him to be and the former top ranked athlete has left the program.
They lost a couple of starters up front in G Jarrett Kingston (6th round) and OT Michael Tarquin (Oklahoma).
The defense is truly getting a makeover in just about every way.
They lost S Calen Bullock (3rd round), the best playmaker in their secondary over the last two seasons. CB Christian Roland-Wallace was their best cover guy and he’s off to the NFL.
CB Domani Jackson (Alabama) and CB Ceyair Wright (Nebraska) both transferring means their top three corners aren’t returning.
Edge Solomon Byrd (7th round) was their best pass rusher last season. They brought in DT Isaiah Raikes (Auburn) in the transfer portal as a potential starter at defensive tackle, but he left after spring ball.
LB Tackett Curtis (Wisconsin) made a ton of freshman mistakes, but he also showed potential and could have been a multi-year starter.
Key additions
DC D’Anton Lynn is easily the biggest addition they made in the offseason. In his one season at UCLA, they went from 92nd to 17th in SP+. Him and the almost completely new staff on that side of the ball should at the very least make them competent on defense.
They also added a couple of starters from UCLA’s secondary in CB John Humphrey and S Kamari Ramsey. Their familiarity with the system is big and they were the two best players in UCLA’s secondary last season.
S Akili Arnold (Oregon State) is another starter they’ve added from a former Pac-12 program. He had double digit havoc plays for the Beavers last fall. Nickel Greedy Vance (FSU) got beat out for a starting spot this spring, but he’s an upgrade at SC. He played 360 snaps on a good defense last season.
CB DeCarlos Nickolson (Mississippi State) started seven games in the SEC in 2023. He’s 6-3 and can play on the boundary.
CB Marcelles Williams was a 4-star prospect in their 2024 recruiting class. He had a strong spring as an early enrollee and could be in the mix to play in the fall.
They added DL Nate Clifton (Vanderbilt) who played the most snaps on Vandy’s defense last season. He can play in multiple alignments and was a multi-year starter. He’s a projected starter at 3-tech for them.
LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) was first team All Pac-12 last season. He should slot right in as their starting Mike backer.
RB Jo’quavious Marks (Mississippi State) has 204 receptions in his career, most of which came when he was playing in Mike Leach’s Air Raid. He hasn’t put up prolific rushing numbers, but he has the traits to excel in Riley’s offense.
WR Jay Fair (Auburn) and WR Kyle Ford (UCLA) aren’t expected to be major players for them, but their receiver depth took a major hit and SC needs some veterans mixed in with such a young group.
QB Jayden Maiava (UNLV) was originally committed to Georgia before flipping to SC. He flashed exciting potential and will likely be the backup with multiple years of eligibility remaining.
Top returners and returning production
They are 77th in returning production (99th on offense and 34th on defense).
The Action Network created a metric called the Transfer Activity and Returning Production (TARP). That metric puts extra weight on experience and gives extra credit to fifth and sixth year seniors on a roster. They are 15th in TARP on defense thanks largely to the older players they’ve added in the secondary.
There’s only three starters back on offense. The best one is Jonah Monheim, who is moving to center after starting at guard and right tackle during his career. They have the flexibility to move him around to other spots if needed, but wherever he lines up, he’s their top player up front.
LG Emmanuel Pregnon was solid for them at guard after transferring from Wyoming and is an NFL prospect.
QB Miller Moss put up monster numbers in their bowl game (six touchdowns, 11.3 yards per attempt) in his first career start. That definitely provided some hope that he can be Riley’s next great quarterback, even if it wasn’t exactly a normal setting.
Moss was a top-100 prospect in the 2021 recruiting class and he knows the system. He’s not a dual-threat and doesn’t have the same ability to escape the rush that Williams does (who does?). He was pressured on only seven of 33 dropbacks in the bowl game. He looked great with a clean pocket, but it’s not always going to be that clean.
WR Zachariah Branch might be the most exciting player in college football. He already proved to be a dynamic returner, but he was more of a gadget player for them last season with 20 of his 31 catches caught within a yard of the line of scrimmage.
He's a potential breakout star on offense and should touch the ball a ton in a variety of ways. He ran a 10.33 100m in high school.
WR Duce Robinson is an absolute freak of nature. He’s 6-6 with the speed to stretch the field. 12 of his 25 targets came in the final four games of the season and he should be a featured weapon in the offense.
He averaged 21.3 yards per receptions on 16 catches as a true freshman.
WR Ja’Kobi Lane and WR Makai Lemon only had 13 catches between them, but are former blue-chip prospects who will get opportunities this season. Lane is a 6-4 long strider who could be a Brendan Rice type for them and Lemon is another elite athlete with great speed.
TE Lake McCree returns as the starting tight end and he can do some damage after the catch (7.2 YAC per reception).
RB Quinten Joyner flashed as a freshman (6.9 YPC) and could push Marks for the starting job.
DT Bear Alexander had some dominant moments after transferring from Georgia prior to last season. At his best, he’s a disruptive pass rusher who can take over a series.
He has a habit of taking plays off, though. He also was practically invisible for large stretches when they played Notre Dame. Alexander is probably someone who would benefit from playing far less than the 660 snaps he logged last season, but he might not get that luxury given their lack of depth.
Edge Jamil Muhammad is an undersized edge rusher with a good motor. When the competition got better, he disappeared. He had only four pressures in the final seven games of the season.
Edge Anthony Lucas has big time traits, but he had one pressure in the final eight games. He was pretty much out of the rotation at the end of the season. It’s a make-or-break season for him and SC desperately needs a player like him to have a breakthrough.
Edge Braylin Shelby made a big physical leap this offseason after redshirting in 2023. He’ll be one of to watch an edge rusher for them this fall.
LB Mason Cobb was second team All-Big 12 at Oklahoma State, but was a major disappointment despite leading SC in tackles last fall. He was a perfect fit as an active blitzer in OSU’s scheme, but missed a ton of tackles and was bad in coverage as a Trojan.
They have to be hoping a fresh start with the new staff can get him back to a higher level.
LB Eric Gentry has the kind of physical tools that coaches covet and has played over 1,200 snaps in his career.
Nickel Jaylin Smith is a good perimeter defender and good blitzer. He’s not someone who excels in man coverage and got burned by Chris Tyree for a touchdown against Notre Dame last fall.
Three big questions
How good can the defense be with a revamped staff?
They didn’t just add Lynn to replace Alex Grinch at defensive coordinator. They also brought in Houston defensive coordinator Doug Belk to coach the secondary, North Dakota State’s head coach Matt Entz as assistant head coach for defense and linebackers coach, and Los Angeles Rams D-line coach Eric Henderson as co-DC/defensive line coach.
We’ve seen this kind of thing backfire at other programs with too many cooks in the kitchen. Lynn and Henderson worked together with the Baltimore Ravens, but Entz, Belk and returning D-line coach Shaun Nua have no previous connection to them, although Nua coached in the same Ravens system at Michigan that Lynn used at UCLA. There is a chance this all implodes if things go bad.
It’s highly doubtful that the defense doesn’t get better with all of the experience they’ve added in the secondary and better coaching at all three levels. USC was 100th in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ rankings) and 115th in EPA (expected points added) per dropback. They’ll be much better than that this fall.
The one thing that UCLA had which USC doesn’t is a great pass rush. Laiatu Latu was the best pass rusher in college football and they had a couple of other pass rushers to compliment him. They finished seventh in havoc rate and so much of that was because of them leading the nation in pressure rate.
Henderson and Nua have to develop a group that hasn’t shown much up to this point and depth is a serious concern for them up front. Any injuries could prove to be catastrophic.
Can the offense continue to play at the level we’ve seen consistently under Riley at Oklahoma and USC?
Riley earned that eight figure a year pay day because of how fantastic his offense has been. He was hired as offensive coordinator at Oklahoma in 2015 and was promoted to head coach two years later. In his nine seasons running the offense at OU and SC, his offense has finished in the top-four in OF+ eight times. The lowest ranking they’ve had is eighth, which basically means that this worst offense was still championship caliber.
They will likely take a step back on offense, but it may be just a tiny one. He’s a great play-caller and they still have great skill talent, even if it is unproven.
One thing that held them back last season was the offensive line. They are breaking in three new starters this fall, including LT Elijah Paige. The former Notre Dame commit could develop into a top NFL pick, but he and guard Alani Noa are projected starters who have played a total of 157 snaps. Depth could again prove to be a big issue for them.
How will the roster hold up against a very difficult schedule?
They are playing four teams who are projected in the top-10 in SP+ (LSU, ND, Michigan, and Penn State). After a bye week in September, eight of their next nine opponents are ranked in the top-45 in the pre-season SP+ projections. Phil Steele has them with the third toughest schedule in the country.
This is a much more difficult path than trying to win the Pac-12 South and it’s at a completely different level than those Big 12 schedules Riley played against each season. It’s not crazy to think they could have four losses by the time they face the Irish to close out the regular season. They were trying to duck out of playing LSU for a reason.
They are facing eight defenses projected in the top-27 in SP+. Five of them, including Notre Dame, are in the top-10.
How they’ve recruited
They signed 78 recruits over the last four recruiting cycles and have a blue-chip ratio of 61.5% for those classes. It has to be mentioned that only 31 of the 48 blue-chips they signed are still on the roster. (To add context, Notre Dame has 50 blue-chips from those classes still on the roster)
The Trojans should be better positioned with their roster in Riley’s third season. Unfortunately for them, moving to the Big Ten means their schedule will be more of a grind, which is probably why Riley is already suggesting they might duck out of playing Notre Dame in the future.
They went from having either the first or second most talented roster in the Pac-12 to closer to fifth or sixth in their new conference. There’s also only two players who were 5-star recruits on their roster. The 2016 team, the last time they won the Rose Bowl, had 10.
It’s a different era at USC in a new conference. Riley could really use a great season on the field to help propel them back to where they used to be, but it’s going to be difficult to do with less depth and a very difficult schedule.
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