Sports Betting 101 | The Price Has To Be Right

I don’t know much…but I’m learning.

I’m happy to be starting a weekly Gambling Blog here on Irish Sports Daily.

This is not a Pick Column meant to be an invitation to tail any of these plays. In fact, you probably shouldn’t tail these. And this is DEFINITELY NOT financial advice. 

If the plays listed here were any good when these bets were placed, the number and/or price should have moved by now and the bet is probably no longer good at that new number or price.

If you are still able to find the same bet at the same price when you’re reading this, that’s a sign it may not have been a good bet in the first place.

Then why even write this column? 

My hope is to offer some insight into the processes that led to these picks, which could help you find profitable picks of your own. 

I don’t know everything there is to know about sports gambling or even all that much, but I’ve learned enough over the years to enjoy consistent success for the last year-plus and I hope to share some of those lessons as we go.

Positive EV Betting is a strategy that involves calculating the Fair Odds for any given game or prop and then finding prices that are more advantageous than those Fair Odds. 

Each week, I’ll share some of the +EV plays that I’m on and then add some basic insight that should be helpful to sports bettors.

First, if you’re looking to get into Sports Gambling, but don’t yet have an account and you’re in a state that has BetMGM, you can sign up through our link. You’ll be able to take advantage of one of the very best promotions in the industry today - $1,500 Paid Back In Bonus Bets if your first bet doesn’t win. 

We advise you to read all of the terms and conditions of the promotion before signing up and yes, Irish Sports Daily receives a fee from MGM for each customer we refer. If you have any questions, I encourage you to send me a private message. 

Now, to this week’s picks.

I’ll track the results of the official picks each week 

The above bets found using DawBets

CLASS IS IN SESSION

Here’s the dirty little secret few sports gambling content creators will tell you, tailing any of them for picks is utterly useless unless you’re doing so instantaneously. 

You’ll see touts offer their picks on games non-stop. They like Notre Dame -28 or they like Over 43.5 and this is why, “Blah blah blah.”

Well, all of that “blah blah blah” - provided it’s true - is already known by the people and algorithms who are setting the lines. And those people and algorithms who are setting the lines have an exponentially better understanding of what that “blah blah blah” is actually worth than your typical tout. 

So their reasoning for liking one side or the other has already been accounted for by the sportsbooks. 

But what’s really underappreciated by the average sports bettor is the importance of price when making wagers. 

Most understand the point spread and how it works, but Notre Dame -28 (-105) is far different than Notre Dame -28 (+105) and that shouldn’t be overlooked.

In the first example, you’re risking $105 to win $100. In the other example, you’re risking $100 to win $105. Many would say, ‘What’s the big deal? If I win, I’m going to be happy and if I lose, I’m going to be upset. I’m not going to worry about that $5 either way.’

And if you’re making one wager a year or even one a week, maybe it isn’t a big deal, but if you’re betting regularly, it is an enormous deal and I’ll show you why. 

Imagine we’re tossing a coin. 

If it comes up Heads, you win. If it comes up Tails, you lose.  

I give you -105 odds on Heads, which means every time you win, I give you $100. But every time you lose, you give me $105. If I have an unlimited bankroll - like the sportsbooks -  eventually you are going to go broke. It may take a while, but it is inevitable. 

On average, you are going to lose $2.50 every time we flip that coin.

But, if I give you +105 odds on Heads…well, you should clear your schedule and beg me to flip that coin as many times as possible because you just found your golden goose. You’ll win an average of $2.50 every time we flip until - if you’re smart - you increase your wager size and start making even more per flip. 

The Fair Odds on a coin flip are 50/50, which should be priced at +100 both ways. Anything worse than +100 is a bad bet. Anything better is a good bet. 

All that is to say the difference in prices on a wager may seem small, but are actually ginormous. 

DawBets is a platform that helps you identify Fair Odds and bets that are being offered at better than Fair Odds at any given time. You can learn more about DawBets and how it can help you become a profitable bettor here.

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