Scouting Report | Stanford
We’re in year two of the Troy Taylor era at Stanford and they are clearly still in the rebuilding phase of his tenure. He engineered a quick turnaround at Sacramento State and left there after going 30-8 with three FCS playoff appearances in three seasons, but inherited a brutal situation at Stanford that was left to him by David Shaw.
I never miss an opportunity to dunk on the poor job Shaw did in his final four seasons. He went 14-28 and failed to adapt both on the field and off of it with talent consistently fleeing the program. That meant the cupboard was bare when Taylor took over and led to a 3-9 year one, with one of those nine losses coming to Sacramento State.
It’s not surprising that Stanford is better this season than they were the last one. Taylor has them headed in the right direction with a 2-3 record that includes a road win at Syracuse. The defense is playing better in year two under Bobby April III and Taylor gets the most out of what talent he has on offense.
The big issue with them the last two weeks, when they’ve lost by a combined score of 70-21 to Clemson and Virginia Tech, has been the lack of depth on both sides of the football. Key injuries have crippled them and they appear to be dealing with more while having to travel to play Notre Dame.
They haven’t been able to fill in gaps on the roster with transfers and the drop off from their best players to everyone else on the roster is significant. They come into this game ranked 85th in F+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking).
Offense
Taylor makes opponents prepare for a ton of stuff each week with the amount of formations, pre-snap motion, quarterback run game, and play-action they run. Most of their success comes from scheme rather than talent.
They are ranked 93rd in OF+, 114th in points per drive, and are 125th in yards per play in their four games against FBS competition. It should be noted that they played all of the Virginia Tech game and some of the Clemson game with their backup quarterback.
Notre Dame saw last year that Taylor isn’t afraid to dip into his bag with trick plays and funky formations to try and confuse the defense. I’d expect a lot of that and an aggressive mentality. They have 16 4th down attempts this season, which is tied for third in the country.
Expected Strengths
It’s not a long list when an offense is ranked where they are. They have hit on some explosives in the run game. They have 11 rushes of 20+ yards and both quarterbacks they’ve played are dual-threats. I like both freshman running backs and they frequently mess with the keys of linebackers and safeties to create confusion with run fits. That opens up creases for those players to hit on something big.
There aren’t many receivers that Notre Dame will face this season that are as physically gifted as Elic Ayomanor. He can win in a variety of ways and he’s the game wrecker for them on offense.
Potential Weaknesses
Notre Dame fans are well aware that it is very difficult to be successful on offense when an offensive line isn’t good. That’s the case with them again this season. They had looked to have settled some things up front with a solidified starting five, but they just lost their best lineman to injury in the VT game.
They are 132nd in havoc rate allowed, 133rd in TFLs allowed per game, and 119th in sack rate. They’re allowing 3.5 sacks per game in their four games against FBS competition. They are 124th in PFF’s run block grade, which causes them to be boom or bust way too often running the football. They’re 85th in EPA per rush.
The passing game has been a nightmare for them and protecting the quarterback has been a big part of it because the interior O-line in particular is bad in pass protection. Those are matchups Notre Dame should win convincingly. They’re 121st in EPA per dropback and both Ashton Daniels and Justin Lamson struggle with accuracy and decision-making.
They are 111th in points per Eckel and 116th in red zone touchdown percentage. They’ve had some success on early drives and been unable to turn those into points because of mistakes in that area of the field and fumbles have been a problem. They have nine in five games and are fortunate to have only lost two of them.
They are 90th in 3rd down offense and don’t have enough players who can win in man coverage even when they get into better down and distance situations. They rely far too much on Ayomanor and force the ball into him even when he is covered well. That was an issue for them last season against Notre Dame.
Personnel notes
#14 QB Ashton Daniels
- 6-2 215
- 5 fumbles in ‘23
- 5 INTs on 3rd down, one of the lowest rated passers in the country in ‘23
- hand injury forced him to leave the Oregon St game
- Used in the run game, a good athlete
- 5.2 YPC on designed runs 15 missed tackles forced in ‘23
- Above average arm, inconsistent accuracy
- 20 turnover-worthy plays in ‘23, 2nd most in PAC-12
- forces the ball into tight windows too often
- good at escaping the rush
- bottom 20th percentile in 3rd down EPA
- bottom 20th percentile in intermediate and deep ball accuracy in ‘23
- was questionable for VT, but was available
- possibly back for ND, sprained ankle late in the game vs Clemson
- 120th in ESPN’s QBR
- leads team in rushing, 6.8 YPC
- 12 rushes of 10+ yards, 11 missed tackles forced
- 5.5 YPA, 5 TDs to 6 INTs
- Daniels vs the blitz: 14 of 25 for 115 1 TD
#2 QB Elijah Brown
- 6-2 205
- 4-year starter at powerhouse Mater Dei
- true freshman
- had impressive spring, injury this season
- 7 of 7 97 yards vs Cal Poly in only action
#8 QB Justin Lamson
- 6-2 215
- 6 fumbles in ‘23, 3 in 5 games
- 130th in ESPN’s QBR in ‘23
- Used primarily as a runner
- Frequent scrambler when first read isn’t there
- Use him on short yardage, did throw play-action TD vs TCU near goal line
- four career starts, under 45% completions as a passer
- fumble and a pick vs VT last week in first start of the season
- 4.3 YPA, 20.2 QBR vs VT
- sacked 5 times vs DT
- rushed 14 times for 4.6 YPC vs VT
- 4.8 YPA, 2 TDs v 1 INT
- 3.2 YPC this season
- Lamson vs blitz: 8 of 16 99 1 TD 1 INT
- struggles throwing the deep ball
- a very good short yardage runner, but not a home run hitter
#26 RB Sedrick Irvin Jr.
- 5-10 190
- 4.35 YPC as a freshman
- all of his production as a receiver came on two catches vs Cal Poly
- 16 for 73, never more than 5 carries in a game
- like to get him out on wheel routes
#20 RB Micah Ford
- 6-0 210
- true freshman
- Breakout game vs Clemson, 15 for 122
- trick play TD throw vs VT, was a HS QB
- limped off after injuring foot near the end of the game vs VT
- 4.9 YPC, has become their lead back
- check down option as a receiver
- physical, will drop his pads and try to run someone over
- 11 missed tackles forced, 10 in last 3 games
- not a home run hitter, but good burst
- struggled in pass pro
- 11.19 100m, 22.72 200m in HS
- appeared to hurt his foot or ankle at the end of the VT game
#5 RB Chris Davis Jr.
- 5-10 185
- true freshman
- 8 for 47 vs VT
- 7.2 YPC, long of 47 vs Cuse
- 0 targets as a receiver
- 11.82 100m in HS
#13 WR Elic Ayomanor
- 6-2 210
- Big time playmaker
- Win contested, 24 contested targets in ‘23
- 14 contested catches was 5th for Power 5 WRs in ‘23
- Strong after the catch, but haven’t gotten many chances this season
- 9 receptions of 30+ yards last year
- Carried them to comeback win over Colorado, dominated matchup with Travis Hunter
- 1,022 yards in ‘23
- targeted him 16 times vs ND last season, only had a passer rating of 27.6 when they did
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 10.76 100 meters, 21.66 200 in HS
- not the sharpest route runner, relies more on physical tools
- 24 for 317, 3 TDs
- ADOT this season is 16.7 yards
- struggled to connect with him deep, only 3 catches on 19 targets
- only 7 catches on 20 targets in last 2 games
- poor QB play has more to do with numbers, he’s a matchup problem
- elite ball skills
#84 WR Ismael Cisse
- 22 for 186
- will hand him in the ball on reverses and sweeps
- mostly utilized in the short passing
- targets dropped massively when Mosley came back from injury
#10 WR Emmett Mosley V
- showed out in the spring as an early enrollee
- will give him the ball on sweeps/reverses
- 11.47 100m as HS frosh
- Son of former ND WR of the same name, Mom was great ND soccer player
- 13 targets the last two games, 11 catches
- only 4.1 ADOT
#24 WR Tiger Bachmeier
- 6-1 190
- True freshman
- 10 for 95 vs Washington
- targets is second on the team
- Got some juice, make something after the catch with space
- 41 yard deep ball vs Cal, big time diving catch
- 36 for 409 in ‘23
- 3 catches on 8 targets all season, played in every game
- 11.27 100m in HS
#0 WR Mudia Reuben
- 6-2 210
- 4 for 31 this season, 3 vs Cal Poly
- 15 for 199 last season, struggled on contested targets
#86 TE Sam Roush
- 6-5 260
- Emerging as a contested catch guy, can move after the catch
- 28 catches in ‘23
- 12 for 97 this season
- have struggled to find him on intermediate routes, but he can be a weapon
- legit NFL prospect
#88 TE Benji Blackburn
- 6-6 250
- true freshman
- solid run blocker
- 38 snaps total, primarily in on run downs
#78 RT Luke Baklenko
- 6-6 295
- started last 4 games on ‘23
- played LT last season, moved to RT
- been better this season, but allowed 4 pressures vs VT
- got leg whipped by accident in the 4th Q
#71 RT Connor McLaughlin
- 6-7 295
- starter last season and in week 1
- benched, was a turnstile last season
- gave up 5 pressures vs TCU
#69 LG Jake Maikkula
- 6-6 295
- replaced Rogers at C after he was injured
- 49.2 PFF grade in true pass sets
- gave up 3 pressures vs TCU at LG
- struggles with lateral movement
- should dominate against him
#76 G/T Jack Leyrer
- 6-5 310
- started at LG, but was benched after Syracuse game
- moved back into lineup at LG when Rogers was injured
- 48.3 PFF grade in true pass sets
- struggled at LT in opener
- doesn’t anchor well
#55 RG Simione Pale
- 6-4 335
- 6 starts at RG in ‘23
- 55.2 PFF grade in true pass sets
- allowed 4 pressures vs TCU
- not polished, has issues sustaining
#58 LT Kahlil House
- freshman
- 6-5 300
- only 3 pressures allowed this season
- mobile, good feet
- needs to physically develop, doesn’t get much movement in the run game
#57 C Levi Rogers
- 6-4 301
- Been solid, their best OL the last two seasons
- left the game vs VT and came out in a boot and crutches
- massive loss for them if unavailable
Key for Notre Dame
Stay disciplined, create havoc
Notre Dame’s defense doesn’t have a lot of blown assignments and they handle motion and play-action as well as any defense in the country. That will need to continue in this game because Stanford will try and throw as much at them as possible.
They’ll also hope to get some yards with their quarterbacks scrambling, so discipline with rush lanes will be critical. They can’t give Stanford free first downs. Daniels is a very good scrambler, so it will be interesting to see if he is healthy enough to play and be close to 100% as a runner. If he can’t do that, then he probably won’t be out there.
If Notre Dame stays disciplined, Stanford will make mistakes. The quarterback will throw the ball where he shouldn’t. He’ll hold the ball too long and take a sack. The Irish are already great at creating havoc and if everyone does their jobs, they’ll rack up a ton of negative plays.
Defense
Defensive coordinator Bobby April III was on Wisconsin’s staff from 2018-2022 coaching outside linebackers and his position group was extremely productive. Before that he was in the NFL and he had all of the qualifications to be a good coordinator. The bones of this defense looks a lot like Jim Leonhard’s Wisconsin defense, including the amount of blitzing and how hard they play.
They have blitzed quarterbacks on 64% of dropbacks and are going to play aggressively all game long with zone pressures.
They don’t have the personnel up front and in the secondary to be as effective as they want to be yet, but things are headed in the right direction for them under April.
They are 84th in DF+, 102nd in points per drive, and 99th in YPP vs FBS competition. They really need to get healthy at safety and edge rusher and weren’t against Clemson and Virginia Tech.
Expected Strengths
The run defense has drastically improved. They are only allowing 3.56 yards per carry in their four games vs FBS opponents and Clemson was the only team to have real success against them (5.0 YPC).
They’ve gone from 129th in PFF’s run defense grades to 21st and it’s with most of the same personnel. The linebackers are better, the tackling is better, and they fit the ball way better. They’ve allowed 14 rushes of 10+ yards (tied for 13th).
The advanced stats aren’t as kind to them (71st in EPA per rush, 67th in rush defense success rate), but just watching the film and it’s clear that they get after it against the run.
Potential Weaknesses
If only it was before the days of the forward pass because they aren’t nearly as good when teams elect to throw. They’ve been torched through the air allowing 8.6 yards per attempt in their four FBS games and are 114th in passing success rate and 115th in opponent passer rating.
The safety position is a problem for them in coverage and they are worse with Washington transfer Javion Green out. They don’t have a true nickel and he was their best slot defender in coverage. Shifting players around to make up for that has made him weaker so if he’s unavailable again for them in this game (he missed most of the last two games), then it’s a huge problem.
They’ve struggled in situational defense. They are 100th in points per Eckel (allowing points after giving up explosives or when teams have long drives against them), 95th in red zone touchdown percentage, and they struggle to get off the field. They are 92nd in 3rd down defense vs FBS competition and 91st in 3rd/4th down success rate.
The lack of depth and overall talent in the secondary is the biggest issue for them overall.
Personnel notes
#23 Edge David Bailey
- 6-3 250
- 8.5 TFLs in ‘22
- 20.53mph on the GPS
- 5 sacks in ‘23
- 20.5% win rate vs true pass sets
- Mostly in the game for pass rush purposes, but plays hybrid position
- 3 of 5 sacks last season came in week 1 vs Hawaii
- two sacks vs Syracuse in ‘23
- battling an injury, only 16 snaps vs Clemson
- 92.5 PFF pass rush grade this season
- 8 pressures vs Syracuse and Clemson
- not a good run defender
- 6 havoc plays, two forced fumbles
- 42.9% vs true pass sets, was awesome getting off the ball vs Cuse
#11 Edge Tevarua Tafiti
- 6-2 240
- high motor, raw as a pass rusher
- Hybrid player who drops in coverage about 50% of the time
- 6.5 havoc plays in ‘23, 5 already this season
- HS wrestler
- very good setting the edge
- 2.5 TFLs vs VT
#14 Edge Wilfredo Aybar
- 6-2 252
- Wins with twitch
- Not a good run defender, lack of length hurts him
- 4 pressures vs Syracuse
- 25.8% win rate vs true pass sets
#44 Edge Ernest Cooper
- 6-4 250
- reserve edge with only 1 pressure this season
- the epitome of just a guy
#94 DT Anthony Franklin
- 6-3 285
- Overmatched against above average lines
- Fireplug
#40 DT Tobin Phillips
- 6-3 300
- NT
- Can get moved in the run game
- 4.88 short shuttle, 26.3 vert at 295 in HS
- elite shot put thrower in HS
#97 DT Zach Rowell
- 6-3 290
- short armed, but active
- good motor
#75 DT Braden Marceau-Olayinka
- 6-3 260
- state champion wrestler
- undersized 3T, true freshman
DT Clay Patterson
- Yale transfer, briefly at UNLV
- All-Ivy league in ‘23
- 11.5 sacks in ‘21
- primarily used as a pass rusher, 3-tech
- had 4 pressures vs Clemson
- only played in 3 games -
20% win rate vs true pass sets
#8 LB Tristan Sinclair
- 6-1 221
- Brings violence, but not instinctive
- Can get caught being overaggressive
- Flashes the most out of any second level defender
- 71 tackles, 2nd on the team in ‘23
- only 5 total havoc plays, 3rd worst Power 5 LB by PFF grades in ‘23
- leading tackler, 5.5 havoc plays this season
- played really well vs VT, 12 tackles
- greatly improved as a pass rusher, fits the blitz better
#0 LB Gaethan Bernadel
- 6-1 227
- FIU transfer
- Led team in tackles in ‘23
- Blitz him frequently
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- thumper, played very well vs the run
#35 LB Matt Rose
- 6-2 230
- 2 TFLs vs Clemson
- reserve LB
- downhill trigger, but liability vs the pass
#32 S Mitch Leigber
- 6-1 202
- Attack him if matched up in the slot
- 135.4 NFL passer rating when targeted in the slot
- 3.5 havoc plays
- pick-six vs Cuse in zone, sat on a route that the QB stared down
- get him to open up and run
#21 S Scotty Edwards
- 6-1 210
- returning starter
- 2 INTS in ‘23
- good run defender
- too slow against quicker slots
- tight hips
#5 S Javion Green
- 6-3 215
- Washington transfer
- did not play vs VT, out with an injury
- missed almost all of Clemson game
- got beat as deep defender on post vs TCU
- good slot defender, nice job on pick vs wheel route against Cuse
#4 CB Zahran Manley
- 6-2 190
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 4 PBUs
- has had a tough time in man coverage this season
#31 CB Aaron Morris
- 5-11 200
- MASS state champion long jump
- cooked by Clemson WR Bryant Wesco while looking at window dressing
- 3 missed tackles vs VT
- playing more because of injuries, he’s Waldo. Go after him
#6 CB Collin Wright
- 6-0 192
- Gave up a bunch of explosives last season, only 1 play of 20+ yards this season
- 11 havoc plays in ‘23
- 4.5 havoc plays, 2 INTs this season
- their best cover guy
- had a pick vs Clemson while lined up as a deep safety
- good tackler
- played primarily as a nickel vs VT and Clemson
Key for Notre Dame
Don’t stray from who they are
There should be opportunities to continue to grow the passing game this week and Notre Dame will need to take advantage of them as much as possible. It would be disappointing for them not to have explosive plays throwing the football this week.
However, they need to be careful to not get away from the running game with Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price. The Irish are 8th in EPA per rush and 42nd in rushing success rate. The line has seen steady improvement with execution in the run game and they still aren’t in a position where they can drop back with Leonard a whole bunch of times.
Stanford has some guys who can get after the passer in those situations too.
Though Stanford is 120th in percentage of pass plays against them for a reason, success in the running game is still going to be essential for the Irish. That should hopefully set up some play-action shots for them as well.
Special Teams
Stanford lost a stud kicker, but hasn’t missed a beat on special teams. They are 13th in SF+ and have had 6-7 defensive tackle Aristotle Taylor block two field goals.
The return game has been good. Bachmeier returned a punt to the house against Cal Poly. He’s a threat in the return game with three kick returns for 84 yards and he returned six kicks or punts for touchdowns in high school.
#13 K Emmet Kinney
- 6-2 215
- 8 of 9 with a long of 51
- only miss was longer than 50
#37 P Aidan Flintoft
- 6-2 210
- 43.9 per punt
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