Scouting Report | Navy
It didn’t take long to see how different Navy Head Coach Brian Newberry was from his predecessor. Ken Niumatalolo was loyal to a fault and it was something that ultimately cost him his job.
Newberry saw things were going terribly on offense in his first season and made a change at coordinator. That change has been the spark that has helped Navy to a 6-0 record.
They are ranked 47th in F+ (the combined FEI and SP+ rankings) after they were projected outside the top-100 before the season. They are third in the country in net points per drive and have won their six games by an average of 28 points per game.
Navy is a much different team than the one Notre Dame dominated last season. That’s true and yet it’s also true that they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. They beat an FCS team to start the season and have played only one top-60 program according to F+ rankings (Memphis is 59th).
The other four FBS programs they’ve played are ranked 123rd, 125th, 120th, and 118th. This team will present a challenge to Notre Dame, but they also haven’t been challenged by any program that is close to the Irish this season.
Offense
Former Mercer head coach Drew Cronic was hired by Newberry to take over the offense and he’s maintained many of the same option principles. They run a version of the Wing-T with more adjustments for the modern era.
They are in shotgun on 45% of their snaps. They have pre-snap motion on over ¾ of their plays, roll the quarterback out of the pocket on about 20% of pass plays, and now run play-action on over 40% of their dropbacks. It’s made them more difficult to defend and it’s remarkable that they were one of the worst offenses in the country last season, but are now playing like one of the best.
They’re third in points per drive and have been a lot more explosive which has led to them no longer having to play keep away. They’re 85th in time of possession and that’s not something that anyone would expect from a Navy offense.
Ranked 36th in OF+, it’s the most balanced a Navy offense has been in a very long time.
Expected Strengths
It’s not a shock to see them ranked 18th in EPA per rush, but it’s an incredible change to see them ranked 7th in EPA per dropback. They’re 12th in passing success rate and PFF has them 34th with their passing grade out of all FBS programs. They were 124th last season.
Defenses can’t just focus on stopping the run against them. They need to be prepared for play-action passes at all times and stay disciplined all game to avoid giving up the big play. That hasn’t happened for the defenses who Navy has faced, though. They now have that explosive element that they didn’t before when throwing the football. They have 21 passing plays of 20+ yards. They had 18 during the entire 2023 season.
That’s also helped them on first down and they are 1st in the country when it comes to early downs EPA. The level of execution on offense has been great, which is part of the reason why they are 1st in havoc rate allowed. They aren’t making many mistakes and have only fumbled twice all season (recovered both).
They execute very well when they get into the red zone too. On 23 red zone possessions, they’ve scored 22 touchdowns.
Potential Weaknesses
Those numbers look intimidating and there is no doubt they’ve been extremely successful on offense all season, but they’ve accomplished it against bad competition. The five FBS defenses they’ve played are ranked 70th, 102nd, 109th, 118th, and 130th in DF+.
To say they haven’t been challenged by a defense like Notre Dame’s (2nd in DF+) would be an understatement.
It did pop out to me that they are 98th in 3rd down conversion percentage vs FBS teams. They’ve done so well on early downs that it hasn’t mattered all that much, but this is the kind of game where it could matter a lot.
The offensive line has played well, but this will be the best defensive front they have faced by a wide margin. They really struggled to block Notre Dame’s defensive line last season and that’s definitely a possibility in this match up as well.
Personnel notes
#11 QB Blake Horvath
- 6-2 195
- Ran the previous Navy offense for three years in high school, very good triple option decision-maker
- 20.8mph on 90 yard TD vs Memphis
- 7.9 YPC, 10 TDs, averaging over 100 yards per game rushing
- 64% completions, 12.3 YPA, 10 TDs to 1 INT
- 3rd in QBR
- six 20+ yard rushes
- 4 40+ rushes is 4th in the nation
- 3.41 yards per carry after contact
- ADOT is 13 yards
- 46.9% of attempts are play-action
- 71.9% 16.2 YPA 5 TDs on PA attempts
#5 QB Braxton Woodson
- 6-3 215
- hasn’t had success as a runner, not a ton of juice
- can throw the deep ball pretty well
#45 FB Daba Fofana
- 5-8 213
- Rushed for 133 in ‘22 vs ND, but 101 came on his first three carries. Next 12 went for 32
- A hard runner through contact, 45 missed tackles forced in ‘22
- 5.1 YPC this season
#46 FB Alex Tecza
- 6-0 204
- 6.02 YPC last season, led team in rushing
- 6.2 YPC this season
- hard runner, 7 missed tackles forced vs Memphis
- 4 catches for 76 yards
- 2,085 yards rushing during senior season of high school
#37 FB Shane Reyolds
- 6-1 215
- 3.7 YPC
#22 SB Eli Heidenreich
- 6-0 201
- averaged 20.1 yards per reception, 7.9 yards per carry in ‘23
- tied for the team lead in receptions, 19 last season
- 12 20+ yard receptions in only 6 games, 7th in the country in ‘23
- 23 catches, 21.1 per reception with 5 TDs
- recorded at least one explosive reception in every game
- averaging 8.1 YPC on 22 carries
- 57 yard run vs Air Force
- almost triple the amount of targets than the next most targeted WR
- 6A player of the year in Pennsylvania in HS
#24 SB Brandon Chatman
- 5-9 176
- Considered one of the fastest players on the team
- 19 receptions last season
- 5.5 YPC, but hasn’t broke anything the last two years
- 9 catches on 11 targets
- hit him on screens, good after the catch
- 11.63 100m in HS
#82 WR Nathan Kent
- 6-3 180
- 21.1mph on a reverse TD vs Air Force
- only 3 catches on 10 targets
- half of those are deep targets
- 77 yard TD vs UAB
- 2nd team All-American in 400m at Navy
#83 TE Cody Howard
- 6-2 231
- hit for a big play vs Memphis for 23 yards
- starter at TE
#85 TE Jake Norris
- 6-3 230
- 3rd TE, solid blocker
#88 TE Thomas Scully
- 6-2 236
- hit him for a 20 yard gain vs Memphis
- been a very good run blocker
#68 LT Connor McMahon
- 6-4 279
- Started 10 games at guard in ‘22
- Their best run blocker in 2022, but struggled in pass pro
- been great this season
- zero pressures allowed
#65 C Brent Self
- 6-2 275
- returning starter
- struggles with above average nose guards
- doesn’t handle quick lateral movement well
#64 LG Ben Purvis
- 6-3 300
- good athlete, get out on screens
- not as good at the point of attack and average at best in pass pro
#69 G Cam Nichols
- 6-1 288
- first year starter
- average player
#62 RT Javon Bouton
- 6-3 285
- played both RG and RT this season, now at RT
- been a bit up and down
- 1st team all-state as a senior in Texas
Key for Notre Dame
Create havoc
Horvath has been phenomenal for them and has avoided making critical mistakes all season. He also hasn’t played a single defense that has had the type of playmakers Notre Dame has and it’s going to be critical for those playmakers to cause havoc.
If Notre Dame can get Navy off-schedule with negative plays or incompletions on first or second down, then the playbook shrinks on third down. Navy is going to make plays too, but it will be up to the defense to limit those while making plenty of their own.
Defense
Newberry has done a good job of helping the defense become respectable since he first arrived as a defensive coordinator and then it has carried over with him as a head coach.
Sure, they don’t have players with NFL measurables, but they are aggressive and play well within the scheme. When things get off the rails for them, he tends to start throwing every blitz imaginable at an offense and we saw how Notre Dame dealt with that poorly during the 2022 season.
Navy’s defense is 20th in points per drive and ranked 59th in DF+.
Expected Strengths
They have done really well at tightening up when offenses have scoring opportunities. They are 33rd in points per Eckel and ninth in red zone touchdown percentage. The red zone defense was the biggest reason why they were able to win a shootout against Memphis.
They have 10 interceptions and have 10 forced fumbles (tied for ninth and fifth in the country).
Newberry does a great job of simulating pressure and they will blitz defenders at any time to create confusion for quarterbacks. That’s a big reason why they’ve had that many interceptions.
They also put a huge emphasis on forcing fumbles and are always looking to create turnovers that way.
Potential Weaknesses
Notre Dame’s offense, for all of its faults, will be the best offense they’ve faced this season. They faced Charlotte (106th in OF+), UAB (104th), Temple (130th), and Air Force (127th) and the only decent offense they went up against shredded them.
Memphis (41st) scored 44 points and gained 659 yards (6.94 yards per play). They had a ton of success running the ball on Navy with 274 yards (7.2 per carry). Memphis had eight rushes of 10+ yards in that game.
Navy is 84th in EPA per rush and 105th in rushing success rating. They are undersized at all three levels of the defense and did not tackle well against Memphis’ backs.
They have also had trouble giving up the big play in the passing game. They’ve allowed 10 receptions of 30+ yards this season in six games and they gave up seven receptions of 20+ yards against Memphis. The depth on defense is not very good as well and they have defensive backs who have been exposed in coverage against better athletes.
Personnel notes
#35 Edge Luke Pirris
- 6-4 217
- 10 TFLs in ‘23, 4 this season
- their best edge rusher
#94 Edge Justin Reed
- 6-3 263
- leads team with 7 TFLs
- had a rough time vs Memphis
#96 NG Landon Robinson
-6-0 286
- 33–inch vert, 600 squat
- 20.13mph on GPS last season
- Former linebacker featured on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List
- blocked a FG vs Bucknell
- plays with really good leverage
- best iDL Navy has had in a while
#99 DT Tyler Narayan
- 6-1 262
- plays about 30 snaps per game
- below average player
#98 DT Kendall Whiteside
- 6-2 280
- began the season as a starter, now rotation player
- doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher
- has been moved in the run game
#95 DT Griffin Willis
- 6-1 273
- backup nose, big drop off from Robinson
#44 LB Colin Ramos
- 5-11 209
- 11.5 Havoc plays in ‘22
- 1st team All-AAC in ‘23
- 110 tackles, 15 havoc plays
- Great blitzer who impacts the game as a pass rusher
- aligned all over
- Averaging 11 tackles per game
- 7.5 havoc plays this fall
#43 LB Kyle Jacob
- 6-0 226
- was starter last season, but season ending knee injury vs ND
- 2nd on the team in tackles
- elite wrestler in HS
#14 Striker Jaxson Campbell
- 5-10 202
- Former WR, moved to safety last spring
- primary slot defender
- Played multiple positions in high school, including QB
- Good athlete, first year as a starter
- has allowed explosives in 3 of 5 FBS games
#18 S Rayaun Lane
- 5-11 197
- torched by Jayden Thomas, 3 catches for 80 yards in ‘22
- torched by Jaden Greathouse for 35 yard TD in ‘23
- 17 havoc plays in ‘23
- super aggressive, will bite on play-action
- 8.5 havoc plays this season
- 3 forced fumbles, 8 in his career
- playing deep a lot more than in the slot than last season
#16 S Giuseppe Sessi
- 5-11 195
- backup safety, played more vs Memphis
- freshman eligibility, 102 career snaps
- 10.74 100m in HS
#7 Bandit Mbiti Williams Jr.
- 5-9 185
- 4 targets, 4 catches for 109 vs ND in ‘22 including Colzie and Lenzy contested catch touchdowns
- beat on a post by Greathouse for a TD in ‘23
- Can still be picked on in coverage
- Allowed explosives in four of five FBS games
#1 Field CB Dashaun Peele
- 5-11 197
- 4 INTs in ‘23, their best CB
- 39.3 NFL passer rating when targeted in ‘23
- 2 pick sixes vs Charlotte
- 9.5 total havoc plays
- gave up 37 yard TD vs Memphis
#13 CB Andrew Duhart
- 5-10 185
- 149.1 NFL passer rating against this season
- allowed explosives in 3 of last 4 games
- has trouble finding the football
#8 CB Greg Johnson II
- 5-10 180
- first year of extended playing time
- 80 coverage snaps, 0 passes defended
- all-district in basketball in HS
Key for Notre Dame
Maximize possessions
It’s the same story, just a different year. Navy isn’t holding the ball as long as they used to on offense, but they’re putting up more points and no matter how they play in this game, the name of the game is always maximizing possessions against them.
Notre Dame needs to stay aggressive and put the ball in the end zone as much as possible. Memphis had a ton of success against them moving the football, but they wasted two red zone opportunities and couldn’t get back the lead because of it.
Special Teams
Navy has barely had to rely on their kicking units this season. They haven’t punted that frequently and they’ve scored touchdowns so often that they’ve only attempted three field goals.
SB Isaiah Bryant has been the main kick returner and he’s averaging 24 yards per return. Heidenrich has taken over punt return duties. He’s only had five return opportunities, but he has dynamic potential.
#17 K Nathan Kirkwood
- 6-2 174
- Missed two extra points
- only 3 FG attempts, 2 of 3
- both makes over 40 yards
- 6 of 9 last season, 2 of 5 over 40 yards
#90 P Riley Reithman
- 5-10 191
- Senior Bowl Watchlist
- 38.8 net punting average
- has pinned teams inside the 20 on 13 of 25 punts
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