Scouting Report | Florida State
Mike Norvell had won 20 of his last 21 games headed into this season. It was enough for some to think that he had built Florida State back into one of the premiere programs in college football.
There may not ever be a more appropriate time for a Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.”
All of those thoughts about the FSU of old have come crashing back down with a brutal season. Norvell was ranked as a top-five coach in the country by some heading into August. FSU fans are now discussing if it’s possible to pay the massive buyout it would take to get rid of him.
Whether that is fair or not, it’s the reality of being 1-8. It’s a 1-8 football team that even after losing 10 players to the NFL Draft, was still considered to be a top-15 team in the country before they actually started playing games.
They lost all that talent, but Norvell had struck gold with the transfer portal before and people thought he could do it again. He didn’t and other returning players have regressed and much of the youth that was supposed to step into bigger roles hasn’t developed.
They’re now ranked 80th in F+ (the combined FEI and SP+ rankings).
As Norvell said after their most recent loss to North Carolina, the team’s confidence is shaken. When bad things happen, things snowball for them and they don’t have the answers to fix it. If they did, they wouldn’t be 1-8.
FSU has a bad football team, but they have the talent to compete with Notre Dame in this game. How long will they compete with Notre Dame on Saturday is the question.
Offense
It would have been logical to think that the 21 points FSU scored in a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech would be a starting point rather than a peak, but that was the only time FSU has scored that many points all season.
Transfer QB DJ Uiagalelei might not have been the answer to replace Jordan Travis, but he certainly wasn’t the problem with this offense. They are 127th in points per drive, 130th in yards per play, and 108th in OF+. It’s been one of the worst offenses in the country. It’s a trainwreck driving straight into a tire fire.
Injuries to Uiagelelei, RB Roydell Williams, and RB Jaylin Lucas haven’t helped and neither has constant uncertainty with the offensive line. Norvell has searched for answers and has juggled quarterbacks since Uigalelei has been out, but everything has been out of desperation.
They’re going to try everything in this game to find a positive spark and will definitely be aggressive every time they get an opportunity to. They’ve gone for it on 4th down 29 times this season, tied for first in the country.
Expected Strengths
WR Ja’Khi Douglas and RB Lawrance Toafili are two talented players with big play ability. They’ve had to be leaned on this season and they are making the best of a bad situation.
That’s about as nice as I can be for an offense that has performed at an unrecognizable level compared to just about every previous Mike Norvell offense.
Potential Weaknesses
They had to replace some top end skill talent from last year’s team and haven’t been able to do it. Uigalelei broke his finger against SMU and had surgery to repair it. It’s been speculated that he won’t return this season and will apply for a medical redshirt. It’s highly doubtful we’ll see him in this game, but they are better with him than without.
Outside of Douglas, the receiver situation has been a mess. They have a bunch of talented athletes, but there has been a lack of development with those guys. They also have had a rough time catching passes with 23 total drops.
Injuries have really been a problem for them. It starts up front where they have had eight different starting combinations in nine games. The O-line was supposed to be a strength for them. Even when healthy, the players have struggled.
That’s a huge reason why they are 126th in havoc rate against and 118th in TFLs allowed per game. They’re 123rd PFF run block grade, 127th in sacks allowed per game, and 121st in sack rate. It’s been ugly. Georgia Tech whooping them up front in week zero turned out to be a sign of things to come and not just a slow start.
When the line is bad, it’s very difficult to be good at anything else. Though they found some explosive passing plays against UNC last week, they haven’t found much of that all season. They are 117th in 20+ yard plays from scrimmage and have had only four runs of 20+ yards. We only have to go back to the 2022 season when FSU had three players who combined for 32 all by themselves.
They stink at running the ball (112th in EPA per rush, 118th in rushing success rate). The quarterbacks are pressured and the receivers aren’t consistent (109th in EPA per dropback, 130th in passing success rate). They are brutal on 1st and 2nd down (132nd in early down EPA). They are just as bad on 3rd and 4th down (119th in 3rd/4th down success rate, 133rd in 3rd down conversion rate).
They don’t get many chances to score (123rd in Eckel rate) and don’t execute well enough to put up points consistently when they do get chances (114th in points per Eckel, 95th in red zone touchdown percentage).
FSU has no business being this bad on offense.
Personnel notes
#11 QB Brock Glenn
- 6-2 215
- struggled mightily vs Louisville and UGA at the end of ‘23 season
- 37.3% completions, 4.5 YPA, 2 INTs in ‘23
- 46.2% completions, 5.5 YPA, 4 TDs vs 3 INTs this season
- pressured on 42.9% of dropbacks
- all 3 INTs came when not blitzing
- throws a decent deep ball
- can take what is given to him as a runner
#14 QB Luke Kromenhoek
- 6-4 208
- true freshman
- very good athlete, dual-threat
- beat up when he runs, skinny
- 39.3% completions, 4.1 YPA, 2 INTs this season
- pressured on 49% of dropbacks
- 2.9 YPA vs the blitz on 20 dropbacks
- scrambled over 20% of the time
- 1 of 13 on passes more than 10+ yards down the field
- sacked 9 times, 37.5% of pressures turned into sacks
- had a 42 yard run vs Miami
#4 QB DJ Uiagalelei
- 6-4 252
- transferred from Oregon State, started out at Clemson
- big arm, but slow release
- struggles with his accuracy on intermediate throws
- had 439 passing day vs ND as true freshman in 2020
- 12th in QBR at Oregon St in ‘23, 113th before injury at FSU this season
- poor fit in the offense
- can be good short yardage runner because of size
- poor pocket awareness, struggles to escape rush
- 6.8 YPA, 4 TDs vs 6 INTs this season
- was pressured on 44.7% of dropbacks
- SR Bowl Watchlist
- 4.97 40, 4.39 short shuttle, 32 vert at 246 in HS
#3 RB Kam Davis
- 5-10 224
- true freshman
- missed the last two games with injury
- 131 yards, 3.45 YPC
- 3.53 yards after contact per rush
- only 1 catch for 7 yards
- runs hard, got some juice if he has space
- 21-4 long jump, big time triple jump numbers in HS
#9 RB Lawrance Toafili
- 6-0 196
- 6.7 YPC and 20 catches in ‘23
- 20.0mph on TD vs GT in season opener
- 3.88 YPC this season
- 19 catches, good receiver who they’ve targeted on wheel routes
- SR Bowl watchlist
- if he has a crease, he can go
- 4.53 40, 39.8 vert in HS
#26 RB Caziah Holmes
- 5-11 215
- 12 for 46 this season, 8 carries in last two games
#28 RB Samuel Singleton
- 5-11 195
- 95-yard TD return vs Duke this season
- 7 carries for 9 yards
- 10.86 100m, 22.4 200m in HS
#19 RB Micahi Danzy
- 6-1 195
- 10-6 broad jump in HS
- state champion 200 and 400m
- 10.57 100m in HS
#0 WR Ja’Khi Douglas
- 5-9 195
- contributor in previous seasons, leading WR this fall
- 25 for 404, 16.2 per catch
- use him as a Wildcat QB
- big play threat, receptions of 20+ yards in six games
- 4.57 40, 4.31 short shuttle, 37 vert in HS
- 11.07 100m
#10 WR Malik Benson
- 6-1 195
- Alabama transfer, previously top ranked JC player
- 13 for 162 at Bama in ‘23
- 23 for 302, 13.1 per catch
- 10.4 100m in HS
- SR Bowl watchlist
- has caught 7 of 10 contested targets
- caught 50-yard deep ball vs UNC
#6 WR Jalen Brown
- 6-1 174
- LSU transfer
- starter in week 1
- numerous examples of poor effort, bad blocking
- 8 for 75 on the season
- hasn’t been targeted since the Duke game
- 10.66 100m, 21.36 200m in HS
- played for Mike Denbrock at LSU
#8 WR Hykeem Williams
- 6-2 215
- 13 catches, 11.7 per catch
- raw athlete, unrefined
- 22.24MPH on GPS in HS
- big time basketball player in HS
#1 WR Kentron Poitier
- 6-3 202
- 10 catches, 15.5 per catch
- averaged over 20 per catch in limited action in last two seasons
- big play vs BC
- most of his targets have come down the field, over 16 yard ADOT
#15 WR LaWayne McCoy
- 6-1 176
- true freshman
- primary punt returner
- all six targets have come in last two games
#84 TE Kyle Morlock
- 6-6 240
- was a D-II All-American at Shorter University
- returning starter
- 19 for 255 last season
- 10 catches for 123 this season
- 4 drops on 20 targets
#86 TE Brian Courtney
- 6-3 240
- HS QB
- 1 catch for 3 yards this season, 2 career catches
- mostly in-line, solid blocker
#40 TE Amaree Williams
- 6-4 219
- true freshman
- 2 catches for 40 yards, targeted 8 times
#18 TE Landen Thomas
- 6-4 235
- true freshman
- had 7 for 80 vs Clemson
#76 LT Darius Washington
- 6-4 310
- sixth year player, over 2,800 career snaps
- 1st team All-ACC in ‘23
- SR Bowl Watchlist
- returned to start vs UNC after missing Miami game
- taken a step back this season, more suited to guard at next level
- BC and UNC games were bad games vs NFL edges
- 3 sacks, 11 total pressures in those games
#52 LT Robert Scott
- 6-5 337
- their third tackle, started at both RT and LT
- has been beat up quite a bit throughout his career
- played well vs Miami
#63 RT Jeremiah Byers
- 6-4 331
- sixth year player
- previously at UTEP
- started 14 games in ‘23
- SR Bowl watchlist
- six penalties this season
- 9 pressures allowed in last two games
#54 RT/RG Jaylen Early
- 6-4 297
- started at RG last 3 games, 3 starts at RT
- benched vs UNC
#75 RG Keiondre Jones
- 6-3 337
- started out at Auburn
- over 2,200 snaps in his career
- has rotated in at RG
- extremely inconsistent
#65 G Andre’ Otto
- 6-5 325
- first action of his career
- has repped at both guard spots
- started three games
- regional wrestling champ in HS
#69 LG Terrance Ferguson
- 6-4 330
- Alabama transfer
- was a backup before Richie Leonard was injured
- was bad in each one of his starts
- limited athlete
- replaced in starting lineup in the last two games, but played
#53 C Maurice Smith
- 6-3 298
- sixth year player, over 3,000 career snaps
- did not play vs UNC, injured
- allowed six pressures vs Miami
- solid player when healthy, but has had issues vs good DTs
#64 C Jacob Rizy
- 6-5 308
- Harvard transfer, multi-year starter
- played OT at Harvard
- started last two games at LG and C
Key for Notre Dame
Play to ND’s standard
It’s something that Notre Dame’s defense has done really well under Al Golden in the last two seasons. They play at a high level and offenses who aren’t at that level have had a miserable time facing them.
They can’t go in thinking that FSU is going to be as bad as they’ve been all season. They have to prepare like FSU is as good on offense as they were expected to be. Do that and this game will have the result Notre Dame wants.
Defense
FSU’s defense was close to elite last season (11th in DF+, 15th in havoc rate, 7th in sack rate), but despite some future NFL talent on the defensive line and in the secondary, they haven’t been able to prop up this terrible offense. The dam was eventually going to break and it has.
They are good enough to keep their team in the game and are 52nd in DF+ and 91st in points per drive.
Expected Strengths
This group still has some “dudes” and those guys are still playing for something. That’s part of the reason why they’re 40th in points per Eckel and 33rd in red zone touchdown percentage.
They have some legit pass rushers. The defensive tackle duo can both push the pocket and they have edge guys who are inconsistent, but have elite traits. They have 22 sacks this season and are 19th in sack rate.
I know everyone loves to make fun of that preseason hype that said they had the most talented defensive line in the country, but this is similar to the end of the Jimbo Fisher era when they had some freaky athletes who can be very disruptive if they want to. It’s the best defensive line the Irish will have seen since the Louisville game.
Potential Weaknesses
The run defense wasn’t great last season (70th in EPA per rush) and they haven’t been good this year. They’re 92nd in EPA per rush and 74th in rushing success rate. They are down a couple of linebackers due to injury and that’s made an impact.
They simply have too many busts. All it takes is one guy to lose his gap and it can be a big play. That happens way too frequently with them, which is why they’re 129th in allowing 10+ yard runs and 122nd in 20+ yard runs.
Six of the nine teams they’ve faced have rushed for 190 yards or more against them.
The pass defense isn’t all that much better. FSU has been forced to play some younger players at corner and the drop off has been noticeable. They are 92nd in EPA per dropback.
I mentioned that they have done a good job of stiffening up when teams get in the red zone, but they allow way too many scoring opportunities for that to matter (118th in Eckel rate). That’s probably because they give up too many explosive plays (96th in 20+ yard plays from scrimmage). A lot of that has to do with safety play, which hasn’t been great.
They also have struggled to get off the field. They’re 107th in 3rd/4th down success rate and 123rd in 3rd down conversion rate. They just don’t play well as a unit in those situations despite the talent.
This might be the most shocking thing about them this season. They’re 86th in havoc rate and have only caused four turnovers. A defense that led the country in passes defended last season with 90 has only 29 through ¾ of the regular season.
Personnel notes
#11 Edge Patrick Payton
- 6-5 250
- highest average havoc per snap last season
- 44 pressures, 14.5 TFLs, 10 PBUs in ‘23
- SR Bowl watchlist
- long, twitchy
- good long arm, solid run defender
- 8 TFLs and 4 sacks this season
- 15 pressures in 9 games
- blocked a FG
- 13.6% win rate vs TPS
- unable to finish a ton of plays
- zero passes batted down this season
- not at the same level as last season and without the attention on the other DL
#7 Edge Marvin Jones Jr.
- 6-5 255
- UGA transfer
- SR Bowl watchlist
- really good first step
- 4.68 40, 500 squat in HS
- son of former FSU star LB Marvin Jones
- 4.5 TFLs, 1 forced fumble
- 14.1% win rate vs TPS
- good traits, but doesn’t have a good plan of attack
#13 Edge Sione Lolohea
- 6-3 265
- Oregon St transfer
- multi-year starter at Oregon St, rotation player for FSU
- 10.5 havoc plays in ‘23, 4 havoc plays this fall
- good motor, power rusher
- good at the POA
#54 Edge Byron Turner Jr
- 6-5 251
- rotation player, just a guy
#5 DT Josh Farmer
- 6-3 316
- dominates at times
- 7 TFLs, 5 sacks in ‘23
- 2024 Feldman’s Freaks list
- 19.6 MPH on GPS
- 6.5 TFLs this season, leads team with 22 pressures
- 16.9% win rate vs true pass sets
#6 DT Darnell Jackson Jr
- 6-5 328
- started out at Maryland, Miami transfer
- SR Bowl watchlist
- 2024 Feldman’s Freaks list
- 36-inch arm length
- 20.6MPH on GPS
- 5.5 havoc plays this season
- 16.9% win rate vs true pass sets
#95 DT Daniel Lyons
- 6-4 294
- 4.5 TFLs
- plus run defender
- can push the pocket as a pass rusher
#90 DT Grady Kelly
- 6-2 295
- Colorado St transfer
- multi-year starter for CSU
- hasn’t stood out playing at power conference level
#56 DT KJ Sampson
- 6-3 306
- 5th DT
- zero pressures all season as a pass rusher
#18 LB Cam Riley
- 6-5 237
- Auburn transfer
- SR Bowl watchlist
- 6 havoc plays this fall, career high
- 2 sacks vs Clemson
- 7 missed tackles in his last 6 games
- not instinctive run defender
- 4.38 short shuttle, 29.9 vert in HS
#20 LB Blake Nichleson
- 6-3 224
- 2nd on the team in tackles
- first year starter
- good athlete
- huge numbers as a HS RB
#9 LB Omar Graham
- 6-1 228
- 5 havoc plays
- been forced to step up with DJ Lundy out and played solid
#15 LB Shawn Murphy
- 6-2 230
- Alabama transfer
- only played vs UNC, but may find his way into lineup due to injuries
- 33.8 vert, 4.41 short shuttle in HS at 198
#1 S Shyheim Brown
- 6-2 208
- multi-year starter
- blocked 5 kicks in FSU career, 6 in HS
- leads the team in tackles
- better run defender than in coverage
- explosive blitzer
#24 S KJ Kirkland
- 6-1 206
- primarily a box safety
- 84.6% completions against, 15.3 per reception
- elite 400m runner in HS
#33 S/nickel Edwin Joseph
- 6-0 190
- super long
- more a matchup guy vs TEs than quicker slot
- 4.5 havoc plays
#12 S Conrad Hussey
- 6-0 200
- huge hit in punt coverage vs Duke
- big hitter in general
- benched as a safety after Clemson game
- 10.9 100m in HS
#22 S Davonte Brown
- 6-2 205
- Miami transfer, multi-year starter at UCF
- backup after being a starter early
- 4.64 40, 4.5 short shuttle in HS
#30 CB Jabrill Rawls
- 6-1 176
- 40 snaps vs UNC was career high with no Cypress
- should test him, allowed 46 yard reception vs BC
#23 CB Fentrell Cypress
- 6-0 188
- previously at UVA
- 1st team All-ACC in ‘22
- 10.5 havoc plays in ‘23, 6 this season
- SR Bowl watchlist
- reportedly playing hurt all season, only 11 snaps vs UNC
- 10.86 100m in HS, 23.9 long jump
#8 CB AZ Thomas Jr.
- 6-2 198
- SR Bowl watchlist
- 15.5 havoc plays in ‘23
- best player on FSU’s defense this season
- 40 tackles, 3rd on the team
- impact as a blitzer from the boundary, six pressures
- only one reception of 20+ all season (21)
- allowed 0 TDs
- elite long jump results in HS, 11.45 100m
#3 Nickel Kevin Knowles II
- 5-11 190
- 5 havoc plays
- been solid for them as a slot defender
- 4.38 short shuttle, 32.6 vert in HS
#16 CB Quindarrius Jones
- 6-2 190
- good tackler
- RS frosh, some ups and downs in coverage
- 22-2 long jump in HS, 22.25 200m
#0 Safety/nickel Earl Little
- 6-1 186
- Alabama transfer
- was leader for nickel job coming out of spring, played more safety
- barely played this season, then 81 snaps in last two weeks
- 36 inch vert in HS
Key for Notre Dame
Stay aggressive
It’s pretty obvious that the defense looks a lot different when the game is tight early on compared to when they get down two or three scores. If Notre Dame’s offense can keep their foot on the pedal as much as possible, then we’ll see a lot of FSU players make business decisions and it will help the Irish pull away.
Special Teams
At least they have special teams because it’s about the only thing that has gone as planned for them this season. They have the best kicker-punter duo in the country and rank second in SF+.
They’ve also blocked 5 field goals and Shyheim Brown has two of them. He has three total in his career, including the one that helped FSU beat Brian Kelly in week one of the 2022 season.
KR Samuel Singleton took back a kick for a touchdown against Duke this season, so he’s someone to worry about. Lawayne McCoy is the main punt returner, but he hasn’t made much of an impact this season. They gave up a 49-yard return vs UNC, but the kick coverage has been good in general.
If they’re going to have a chance at pulling off an upset in this game, there’s a good chance that special teams would be a big reason why.
#88 K Ryan Fitzgerald
- 6-1 190
- 10 for 10 on FG attempts
- made 19 of 21 last season
- 75% of his kickoffs have gone for touchbacks
- hold record in Georgia for most 50+ yard kicks in HS
#29 P Alex Mastromanno
- 6-1 241
- SR Bowl watchlist
- averaging 49.35 per punt, 2nd in the country
- 2nd in the country in net punting, 46.1
- Aussie punter in final year of eligibility
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