Scouting Report | Penn State
In many ways, Penn State has been stuck in the same spot Notre Dame has been in for many years.
They’ve been good. Sometimes very good. But not good enough to break into the upper tier of college football.
This season has been somewhat of a breakthrough for them. Head coach James Franklin has been in Happy Valley for 11 years. He’s won 11 or more games six times. This is the first time he’s made it into the top-four and is one win away from playing for a national championship.
This Penn State team is very good. They’re ranked sixth in F+ (the combined FEI and SP+ rankings), have a 61% blue-chip ratio, and have top talent on both sides of the ball. They also were fortunate to have an easy path to get to where they are now.
Notre Dame had to beat two top-10 teams in F+ to reach this semi-final. PSU had to beat teams who were ranked 14th (SMU) and Boise State (27th). That’s one Group of 5 team and one team who was in the Group of 5 just last season.
PSU played two top-10 teams this season, Ohio State and Oregon, and lost both times in close games. Franklin’s team has been competitive in just about every top-10 matchup they’ve had during his tenure, but as Bill Parcells said, you are what your record says you are. Penn State is 4-19 in those matchups. (Is that Brian Kelly’s music?!?!)
This season can only truly be a breakthrough for them if they are able to beat Notre Dame.
Offense
PSU took a huge jump on offense this season. They were 24th in OF+ last season and are 4th. A big part of that has been the improvement from their quarterback, but the catalyst behind that improvement is offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki.
Kotelnicki is a rising star who had a lot of success working with Lance Leipold at Buffalo and then Kansas. He’s super creative and often unpredictable. In other words, his offense is very difficult to prepare for.
They do a great job getting the ball to the perimeter by throwing screens, quick games, and RPOs as part of their base offense, but they add plenty of window dressing with multiple formations, pre-snap motion, and trick plays. Not many teams would use All-American tight end Tyler Warren as creatively as Kotelnicki does and he does a fantastic job of finding ways to get all of their playmakers the football.
While they have had success against just about everyone they’ve played this season, it is worth noting that the only top-10 defense they played (Ohio State) held them to only six points. (The defense scored on a pick-six for them in that game)
Expected Strengths
This is the best backfield the Irish will have faced so far this season. They’re 13th in EPA per rush and have two stud running backs in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allen is a bit more physical and Singleton is a home run hitter.
They also have used Warren the backfield as a Wildcat quarterback and that’s been another way they’ve had success running the ball. QB Drew Allar is a good athlete who can hurt a defense with his legs as well.
There were plenty of questions about how good they would be throwing the football this season, but that didn’t take into account Warren having one of the best single seasons for a tight end in recent memory. He’s a versatile weapon that Notre Dame will have to account for on every play.
Warren’s ascendance has gone hand in hand with Allar’s leap. PSU is 5th in EPA per dropback.
They are one of the best in the country on 3rd/4th down. They are 9th in success rate in those situations and have delivered frequently when they get into scoring position. They are 23rd in points per Eckel and 17th in red zone touchdown percentage.
Potential Weaknesses
The offensive line is pretty average. They were not a Joe Moore Award semi-finalist (one of those championship markers that has mattered over the last decade) and I can see why on the film. They work fairly well as a unit in the run game, but individually they lose too many battles.
That jumps out in pass protection as well. They are 96th in PFF’s pass block grade, which also stems from some issues in identifying the blitz (which is on Allar as well). Boise State attacked them with A gap pressure and C Nick Dawkins has been a liability.
Against the blitz, Allar completed only 46.2% of his passes and averaged 4.6 yards per attempt last week. It hasn’t helped them that they lost RT Anthony Donkoh for the season either. Nolan Rucci has done a good job in the run game at that spot, but he’s had a tougher time in protection.
The dominance of the running game has masked how Allar has looked the last few weeks. He had some big time plays against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game, but was hit and miss most of that game. In the last three weeks his numbers have dipped significantly with him completing only 53.5% of his passeas and averagin 6.1 YPA.
More than that, there have been other red flags with his game. As my friend Michael Bryan pointed out, these yards per dropback numbers are concerning.
While he’s mostly kept the ball out of danger in these recent games, he was sacked six times in their CFP games and his pressure to sack percentage was much higher than it typically is (27.3% and 30% respectively).
It jumped out to me how much he has struggled completing intermediate throws as well in their biggest games this season. He was 9 of 28 (32.1%) on passes between 10-19 yards against Ohio State, Oregon, Boise State, and SMU. Those are typically the most difficult throws to make and the ones with the most risk involved, so I don’t believe poor ball placement in those games is a coincidence.
His QBR against Ohio State (33.5), SMU (56.3), and Boise State (45.0) is another red flag to add to the pile. If we’re dipping into last year as well, PSU is 0-5 in games with Allar completing under 50 percent of his passes against Ohio State (twice), Michigan, Ole Miss and Oregon.
Whether it's the added weight of these games or the fact that they are facing better talent, Allar hasn’t raised his game against the best competition. He didn’t need to against SMU or Boise State, but Notre Dame is better than those teams.
Depth at the skill positions is another issue for them. Their third running back back is a true freshman who was a four-game redshirt player and with QB Beau Pribula transferring, the backup is true freshman Ethan Grunkmeyer. He has thrown two career passes, both in garbage time against SMU.
Pribula was a nice piece for their offense as well. They worked him as a dual-threat and without him it’s one less thing to prepare for.
Personnel notes
#15 QB Drew Allar
- 6-5 238
- 15th in QBR
- 67.4% completions, 3,192 passing, 8.6 YPA, 24 TDs to 7 INTs
- Only 8.1% of Drew Allar's dropbacks have gained 20-plus yards (127th out of 130)
- big arm, massive improvement this season
- has elite physical traits
- can make ridiculous off-platform throws
- can gash the defense as a runner when he’s not accounted for
- struggle town vs Ohio St
- shown more ability to escape the rush this year
- inconsistent ball placement
- will get stuck on 1st read
- when late on reads accuracy and TWPs happen
- 8th in EPA per dropback, 4th in passing success rate
- only 9.2% deep pass rate in ‘23
- ADOT vs best defenses?
- 3 INTs vs USC
- 2022 ISD Fab 50
#17 QB Ethan Grunkmeyer
- true freshman
- thrown two passes, 1 completion for 9 yards
- Elite 11 finalist
#13 RB Kaytron Allen
- 5-11 220
- runs very hard, tough to tackle
- 1,026 yards rushing, 5.1 YPC
- long of 32
- not a home run hitter, but good burst
- good feet
- has been outstanding the last three games
- 9 missed tackles forced vs Boise St
- 17 for 147 receiving
- primarily a checkdown option
#10 RB Nicholas Singleton
- 6-1 226
- 1,061 yard rushing as a freshman, PSU record
- 1,015, 6.5 YPC this season
- 26 catches for 308 in ‘23
- 39 for 342 this season, 5 TDs
- twice hit over 21.0mph on runs this season
- max velocity of 23.6mph
- 5 rushes of 40+ yards, 7 in ‘22
- can break one at any time
- better athlete than natural RB instincts
- not good in pass pro
- ran him on a seam route for a TD vs Oregon
- 4.59 40, 36.8 vert in HS
- 4.35 40, 10-1 broad jump, 425 bench at PSU
- 2022 ISD Fab 50
#24 RB Corey Smith
- true freshman
- 22 for 152, 6.9 YPC in four games
- most of it on a 78-yard rush vs Washington
- 11.1 100m, 22.72 200m in HS
#6 WR Harrison Wallace
- 6-1 198
- 46 for 723, 15.7 per reception
- 13.8 ADOT
- good ball skills
- 55.3% on contested targets in his career
- got some juice after the catch
- gets out of his breaks clean
- caught 17 of 21 targets vs man coverage, 15.8 per reception
- 10 of 13 on contested targets out of man
#2 WR Liam Clifford
- 6-1 208
- 18 for 286 receiving
- possession guy
- 18 of his 28 targets have come from the slot
- 17.6 per reception on 14 catches from the slot
#3 WR Julian Fleming
- 6-2 208
- Ohio State transfer
- 14 for 176 receiving
- had couple of key 4th down receptions to convert vs USC
- was phased out of OSU, but flashes of brilliance
- has caught only 1 pass since week 11
- 4.45 40, 4.01 short shuttle, 40 inch vert in HS
- 23-0 long jump in HS
- 2020 ISD Fab 50
#5 WR Omari Evans
- 6-1 188
- 21 for 415, 19.8 per reception
- 41.7% of his targets have been 20+ yards down the field
- 21.3 ADOT
- tracks it well
- spectacular catch vs Boise St
- former HS QB
- ran a 4.3 at camp in HS
- elite 300m hurdler in HS
#44 TE Tyler Warren
- 6-6 257
- Mackey award winner as top TE in CFB
- 98 for 1,158 receiving, 8 TDs
- 24 for 197 as a runner
- thrown, caught, and ran for touchdowns this season
- attempted six passes, 3 of 6 1 TD
- monster game vs USC, 17 for 224
- projected 1st round pick
- great after the catch, 664 yards YAC
- contested catch monster
- 33 yard run vs Ohio State
- great in multiple alignments
- big catch radius
- plus blocker with some dominating reps, but whiffs too
- will use him in short yardage at QB
- will scheme up plays with a bunch of window dressing to get him the ball in a variety of ways
- caught a double pass for a TD vs USC
- All-American
- aligned 46.2% of the time in the slot on passing downs
- 8.5 targets per game
- 61.2% on 21 contested targets
- caught 7 of 10 contested targets vs man coverage
- 35 inch vert in ‘22 at PSU
- best skill player ND has faced this season
- 4.76 40, 4.31 short shuttle, 32.1 vert in HS
#16 TE Khalil Dinkins
- 6-4 252
- 12 for 101 receiving
- primarily an in-line blocker
- one of the better run blocking tight ends in the Big Ten
#85 TE Luke Reynolds
- 6-4 248
- true freshman
- 8 for 104 receiving
- fake punt for 32 yards
- former QB in HS
- 4.56 40, 4.3 short shuttle, 38.6 vert in HS
#66 LT Drew Shelton
- 6-5 307
- first year as full time starter
- just a guy
- below average in the run game, gets beat with quickness
#72 RT Nolan Rucci
- 6-8 308
- Wisconsin transfer
- only 70 snaps at Wisconsin
- first starting experience of his career in 2024
- was splitting RT duties
- struggles in pass pro on straight dropbacks
- 2021 ISD Fab 50
#71 LG Olaivavega Ioane
- 6-4 348
- two year starter
- 2nd team All-Big Ten
- has played both guard spots
- moves people at the point of attack
- their best OL
- had a rough game against Ohio St’s interior DL
#56 LG JB Nelson
- 6-5 326
- 768 snaps the last three years
- struggles against movement and stunts in pass pro
#77 RG Sal Wormley
- 6-3 327
- 3 penalties vs Boise St
- 3 year starter
- above average in the run game
#53 C Nick Dawkins
- 6-4 298
- son of Daryl “Chocolate Thunder” Dawkins
- 8 penalties this season
- allowed 6 pressures vs Washington and 5 vs Oregon
- gives up the highest percentage of pressure for his team than any other Power 4 center
- 2nd worst pass blocking efficiency (percentage of pressures) given up for Power 4 centers
#50 C/G Cooper Cousins
- 6-6 316
- true freshman
- very good athlete, multi-sport in HS
- 100 snaps at RG this year
- have lined him up at fullback in short yardage
Key for Notre Dame
Dominate up front
Should this spot be left blank every week? Maybe because this is basically the formula for success every week.
It matters when it comes to pressure on Allar. It matters when it comes to stopping their rushing attack. It matters because one defensive lineman could be the key to blowing up the handful of trick plays.
I would expect Kotelnicki to call. If Notre Dame’s defensive line plays the way they did against Georgia, it should lead to a rough night for Penn State’s offense.
Defense
Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen is in his first season as defensive coordinator at Penn State and his group has been great. They are 5th in DF+, 9th in points per drive, 8th in yards per play, and they finished the regular season 16th in stop rate.
They play a high percentage of man coverage with their corners and Allen has done a great job utilizing their team speed with pressure packages, but what makes them especially disruptive is the way they slant and shift up front.
Georgia’s defense had the most raw talent the Irish have faced this season, but this Penn State defense isn’t that far off from what we saw last week.
Expected Strengths
It all starts up front. They aren’t as big and dominant at the point of attack as UGA, but they are ultra-athletic. Those twitchy athletes whooped Boise State’s offensive line all game and were the reason why stud running back Ashton Jeanty was held to his lowest yards per carry (3.5) of the season.
They are 4th in EPA per rush and they stuff 27% of non-sack rushes at or behind the line, which is third in the country. It’s the defensive line that’s the biggest reason why they have a havoc rate of 20%.
The pass rush is very good. They can win by rushing four, especially with those edge rushers who are just as athletic as Georgia’s. Notre Dame has had to play against some game wreckers at defensive end this season, but Abdul Carter is notch above the rest. (We’ll see about his health)
The pass rush is the biggest reason why they are 7th in EPA per dropback and why the defense has racked up 18 interceptions in 15 games.
USC and Oregon are the only two Power 4 opponents who scored touchdowns on more than 50% of their trips in the red zone against them. They have been dominant when it comes to limiting points in that area of the field.
They are 1st in red zone touchdown percentage and 2nd in points per Eckel.
Potential Weaknesses
USC, Oregon, and Ohio State ran on them. USC rushed for 193 against them (8.4 YPC). Ohio State ran for 191 (5.2 YPC). Oregon ran for 185 against them (4.4 YPC).
One of the biggest reasons why is that those teams were able to gain a bunch of yards after contact. Ohio State’s Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson had 84 yards after contact. 110 yards from Oregon’s running backs came after contact. Judkins, Henderson, Washington’s Jonah Coleman, USC’s Quintin Joyner, and Oregon’s Noah Whittington all averaged over 3.0 yards after contact per attempt against them.
Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love are 1st and 2nd out of all Power 4 backs when it comes to yards after contact per attempt. That could turn out to be huge in this game because Penn State is 111th in PFF’s tackling grades. It’s been especially bad recently with them missing 57 tackles in their last three games.
That should be alarming to them. It might be because of injuries that aren’t disclosed or them just wearing down, but Notre Dame just played four quarters against Georgia and had only four missed tackles. They also have had players who had issues with missed tackles all season, so this isn’t just a recent problem.
This is probably where they miss S Kevin Winston Jr. the most. He was basically their version of Xavier Watts and he has been out for the season since September.
They’ve allowed 7.3, 7.5, and 6.3 yards after catch per reception in their last three games as well.
Carter’s shoulder injury took him out of the Boise State game. He keeps hinting that he’s been in a Bacta tank getting ready to play this week.
Notre Dame should assume he will play, but they should also run at him if he does. The first snap he’s in the game, they should run counter right at him or run some kind of toss crack play.
Personnel notes
#11 Edge Abdul Carter
- 6-3 259
- top-5 prospect
- freaky athlete, speed to power
- previous off-ball LB
- 26.5 havoc numbers
- good arm over move, super flexible
- 24.1% pass rush win rate in ‘23
- 1st team All-Big Ten in ‘23
- 2024 consensus All-American -
11 sacks, leads the nation in TFLs with 22.5
- injured shoulder and missed the second half of the Boise State game
- should run counter at him as much as possible to test the shoulder
- 4.48 40, 4.35 short shuttle, 10-7 broad jump at PSU
- 33.5 vert
- 22.4mph max on GPS
- 5 pressures and a sack vs SMU
- 58 total pressures
- 36.6% win rate vs true pass sets
- can catch him jumping offsides
#33 Edge Dani Dennis-Sutton
- 6-5 270
- potential 1st round pick
- long, active
- 6.5 sacks, 11 TFLs
- 15 havoc plays
- 21.5% win rate vs true pass sets
- 41 pressures, 13 hits on the QB as a pass rusher
- 2022 ISD Fab 50
#15 Edge Amin Vanover
- 6-4 258
- 6.5 havoc plays
- very good sub-package rusher
- great reactive athlete
- first step is awesome, high motor
- if asked to play every down, he’s not a good run defender
#92 Edge Smith Vilbert
- 6-6 282
- 6.5 havoc plays
- much better run defender than pass rusher
#28 DT Zane Durant
- 6-1 290
- 10 TFLs
- good first step
- twitchy, their best iDL pass rusher
- 27 pressures
- can get swallowed up vs the run
- 4.84 40, 4.5 short shuttle in HS
- regional shot put champ in HS
- 4.66 40, 9-10 broad jump, 4.44 short shuttle at PSU
- 30.5 vert, 660 squat
- max velocity of 21.1mph
#99 DT Coziah Izzard
- 6-3 305
- 5th year -
6 TFLs
- more than a space eater, can really push the pocket
- 4.99 40, 4.78 short shuttle, 33.1 vert in HS
#91 DT D’von J-Thomas
- 6-1 305
- 4 TFLs
- solid at the POA
#13 LB Tony Rojas
- 6-3 236
- 13 havoc plays
- 4.50 40, 4.08 short shuttle, 34 vert at PSU
- 3 INTs
- flashes with speed and range
- really good Green Dog blitzer
- 22.2% missed tackle rate is 9th worst for Power 4 LBs
- 31.4% missed tackle rate vs the run, worst out of all Power 4
- has some poor run fits
- excellent in coverage
#41 LB Kobe King
- 6-1 240
- 2nd on the team in tackles
- 10.5 havoc plays
- 2nd team All-Big Ten
- outstanding vs inside run
- violent blitzer
#0 LB Dominic Deluca
- 6-1 230
- 8 havoc plays
- 3 INTs
- 26.2% missed tackle rate is 3rd worst for Power 4 LBs
#43 LB Tyler Elsdon
- 6-2 230
- plays on attack mode, but can get too aggressive
- about 10-15 snaps per game
#1 S Jaylen Reed
- 6-0 212
- leads the team in tackles
- 13 havoc plays
- considered one of the top safeties in the NFL Draft
- 2nd team All-Big Ten
- sealed game with INT vs USC
- pick-six vs Wisconsin
- good downhill run defender
- 3 missed tackles vs Ohio State, 3 missed tackles vs Boise St
- will take some bad angles in coverage at times
- very good blitzer
- credited with 4 TDs allowed vs Oregon in coverage
#6 S Zakee Wheatley
- 6-2 200
- 8.5 havoc plays
- 2 INTs
- 6 games with multiple missed tackles
#10 S Dejuan Lane
- 6-2 211
- true freshman
- 4 havoc plays
- flashes, but they can go at him when he’s in the game
- make him tackle
- 10.98 100m, 22.44 200m in HS
#4 CB AJ Harris
- 6-1 193
- Georgia transfer
- freaky athlete
- 3rd team All-Big Ten
- 9 havoc plays
- their best corner
- excellent in man coverage
- 40.2 vert, 4.54 40, hit 21.9mph in GPS in HS
#3 CB Jalen Kimber
- 6-0 184 -
4 havoc plays
- Florida transfer, started out at UGA
- steady tackler
- only allowed 4 explosives in 15 games
- 2020 ISD Fab 50
- 4.44 40, 4.02 short shuttle, 42 inch vert in HS
#9 CB Elliott Washington
- 5-11 194
- 7.5 havoc plays
- quality 3rd corner
- 47.6 NFL passer rating against
- 4.32 40 at PSU
- 10.69 100m in HS
#29 CB Audavion Collins
- 5-11 180
- started out at Miss St
- 4 havoc plays
- solid tackler
#7 Nickel Zion Tracy
- 5-11 181
- 5 havoc plays
- 2 INTs
- good coverage player, but is a poor tackler
- 38.2% missed tackle rate is atrocious, 2nd worst for Power 4 CBs
- pick-six vs Ohio St
#5 Nickel Cam Miller
- 6-0 180
- 8 havoc plays
- smart player
- middle round NFL prospect
- 4.50 40, 10-4 broad jump in HS
Key for Notre Dame
Create more explosive plays
With how Penn State has tackled, the answer might be as simple as that with Notre Dame’s running backs and Riley Leonard. There’s a good chance we’re going to see more of the typical explosiveness from the running game that we’ve seen from the Irish offense for most of this season.
At some point, the offense has to create more big plays throwing the football. Play-action against Penn State could be a great opportunity for it to happen. Ohio State, Oregon, SMU, and Boise State had a combined 126.6 NFL passer rating on play-action attempts against PSU. They averaged 10.1 YPA and threw for five touchdowns.
Penn State will be thinking about stopping the run first and if Notre Dame is finding success doing that, they should have some opportunities with play-action and RPOs.
Special Teams
They are 82nd in SF+. In a big spot, they converted a fake punt vs Minnesota to TE Luke Reynolds for 32-yards.
Singleton is their primary kick returner and he has the ability to score whenever he touches the ball. He took a kick to the house against Rutgers as a freshman.
The kicking game for them is solid, but only 61% of Gabriel Nwosu’s kickoffs have gone for touchbacks. Jayden Harrison should have an opportunity to return in this game.
#94 K Ryan Barker
- 6-2 192
- 14 for 17 on FGs, won the job early in the season
- 8 for 8 inside 40 yards
- long of 49
#95 P Riley Thompson
- 6-1 224
- 42.9 per punt, 40.2 net
- had a punt blocked vs Minnesota
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