Scouting Report - Stanford Offense
Going to California with a chance to go to a major bowl on the line. It’s a very familiar experience for Notre Dame fans as this happened a time or two before. The Irish have had a very good season, but they need to beat Stanford in Palo Alto to keep it that way. And that’s something Brian Kelly has not done in his team’s previous three trips to take on David Shaw’s program.
Even without the 10 wins or the New Year’s Six bowl being at stake, this game would still mean a lot. Stanford has gotten the better of Notre Dame too often on the field and in head to head recruiting battles. Kelly needs to flip the script on the former to give him an assist with the latter.
To do that, he’ll need Mike Elko’s defense to play big against a Stanford offense that has plenty of skill talent and has yet another strong offensive line.
How much Love can they expect?
That’s going to be the biggest question going into Saturday night. Bryce Love has been the most explosive back in the nation this season. He’s broken runs of 50 yards or more 11 times. His 1,783 yards and 8.8 yards per carry are ridiculous. He can make defenders miss and also runs with surprising power for someone who tips the scales at under 200 pounds. Stopping him would be more of a challenge than stopping Christian McCaffrey was for the Irish.
I used “would” instead of “will” for a reason, though. He has been playing with a sprained ankle in recent weeks and is not close to 100%. It forced him to miss the Oregon State game and parts of other games. He re-injured his ankle in the 4th quarter against Cal and did not return. He gutted it out the last three games and I assume he will try to do the same this week, but who knows if it’s now worse than it has been.
It will at the very least affect his workload as he would have to play through quite a bit of pain. Even injured, he is still dangerous whenever he touches the football. No one is going to catch him if he gets a step, bum ankle or not. The Irish defense will have to attack and get him wrapped up near the line of scrimmage to avoid him getting loose.
It’s fair to point to Love not playing versus Oregon State as a huge reason behind why Stanford played so terrible that night, but without Love at the end of Cal the offense did well. They fed the ball to backup Cameron Scarlett and he helped seal the win. He’s a pretty good backup that is a strong inside runner and also a good kick returner.
If Love is limited or doesn’t play at all, I wouldn’t expect Stanford to lean on the run any less. The Irish will just see a lot more of Scarlett if that happens.
The usual Stanford line
This isn’t the best line Stanford has had in recent years, but it is definitely a strength of the team. Sophomore right guard Nate Herbig might be the best guard Notre Dame’s defensive line will have gone up against aside from Quenton Nelson in practice. He’s not Q, but Herbig is a mountain of a young man that can move people off the ball and delivers some crushing blows when asked to pull.
If linebackers or safeties have to take him on, the best course of action would be to go low and cut him rather than trying and take him on straight up.
They have three seniors starting at center, guard, and right tackle, but were rolling with a true freshman on the left side until the last couple of games. That true freshman is former 5 star Walker Little and he was living up to the hype before being injured against Washington State. I’m not sure about his availability for this game, but they have played sophomore Devery Hamilton in his absence and it’s been a step down from what they were getting from Little. I like the matchup of Hamilton against some of Notre Dame’s edge rushers like Julian Okwara and Daelin Hayes.
Wazzu really gave this group trouble with stemming before the snap and more movement after it. The Cougars defensive line was constantly slanting or shooting gaps and that was the catalyst behind them shutting down Love. They gave up one big chunk run and then held Love to 15 carries for 17 yards outside of that.
Left guard David Bright in particular struggled with lateral movement in that game. I think we’ll see the Irish D-line slant a bit more than they typically do to avoid getting stuck trying to win the man ball battles all game long.
They’ve settled on Costello at quarterback
I’m not sure what took them so long other than it always seems to take them too long to figure it out, but KJ Costello is now the starter at quarterback. Keller Chryst was the starter to begin the season. His accuracy issues and lack of mobility were a huge issue, though. With Costello, they have a better athlete that can move the chains with his feet if needed and he also has a big arm to make every throw asked of him.
Like a lot of young quarterbacks, he isn’t efficient on 3rd and long, but he gives his receivers a chance to make a play more often than not. Ideally the Irish want to force him to be the one to beat them and get them in as many obvious passing situations as possible. It helps that he is protected so well up front and they will keep a tight end to help block as well to give him extra time.
They try to give him some easy throws early to get in a rhythm, which is typical of most play-callers with young quarterbacks. Notre Dame may be able to take advantage, though. They don’t have anyone with scary speed on the outside so the corners may be able to sit on some routes and possibly jump something for an interception. We’ve already seen Julian Love do this three times this season and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see that again.
Matching personnel
Whenever anyone plays Stanford, it’s always important that they match their personnel because the Cardinal are so diverse in what they like to do. They love to come out early and get cute by going empty or trying to spread teams out in 11 (one back, one tight end) personnel. That means Notre Dame will be in nickel on rare occasions on Saturday, but it’s really all about how Notre Dame will match up when Stanford chooses to go big.
It’s nothing different than what they've been doing for a few years now with multiple extra offensive linemen and multiple tight ends. Elko and his staff are definitely going to be prepared to match that size. Whether they are lined up in an unbalanced line or more conventional, Notre Dame cannot get bullied at the point of attack or else it will be a long night. That puts pressure on the young defensive tackles for the Irish and the safeties are going to have to play an active role in the running game as well. If Jalen Elliott does not attack and tackle better in this game, it could be a long night.
More size to worry about at receiver
They might not have a single guy who is going to consistently scare the Irish deep down the field, but they are going to be tough to deal with when it comes to 50/50 balls. In addition to tight ends like Kaden Smith and Dalton Schultz, they also have JJ Arecaga-Whiteside who has developed into their go-to receiver since Costello has taken over. At 6’3” 224, he isn’t that much different than a tight end. They will throw it up to him at all times and count on him winning the jump ball.
Costello will also throw it to junior Trent Irwin even when he is covered because Irwin has the kind of hands that can snatch the ball in at any time. They count on their receivers being better than the other team’s defensive backs when it comes to winning those individual battles for the football. Notre Dame is going to have to win their fair share when it could go either way.
Other stray thoughts
- Look out for some specific plays to get their two talented freshmen involved. Connor Wedington is one of the fastest players on the team and they will look to get him the football in space. Tight end Colby Parkinson is 6’7” and has phenomenal ball skills. If he is lined up out wide in the red zone, they are probably going to chuck it his way.
- Ryan Burns is technically the third quarterback on the depth chart, but they will bring him in as a change of pace to run the football. Think of him like the Belldozer Oklahoma used except Burns is more of an option to throw and is not strictly a short yardage specialist.
He is big guy, though, at 6’5” 230. He will come in and they will typically run read option.
- I guess you could say that forcing anyone into obvious passing situations is the best way to win on defense, period. With Stanford, that is especially true, though, because they want to milk the clock if they get a lead by running the ball down your throat and they have not been very good at throwing the ball this season.
They are ranked 83rd in yards per attempt and that number hasn’t gone up since Costello took over the job . Get a lead and get them out of their comfort zone and it can be a great day for the Irish defense.