6 Thoughts on a Thursday

Most people went to bed on Tuesday night expecting the worst. That’s what people have gotten used to when it comes to Notre Dame on signing day. That’s what most people assumed would happen based on the intel that was coming in at that time too.

If we can learn anything from that, it’s that what we think we know at one moment can change in an instant. Defensive tackle Derrick Eason sure seemed like a done deal until he wasn’t. Noah Boykin and Jarrett Patterson seemed like they were headed elsewhere until they weren’t. That’s recruiting for you. Nothing is official until they make it official.

Now that both the December and February signing days are over, I can officially say that Notre Dame did an awesome job of finishing out this class. I said on Monday’s Power Hour that I wanted to see the Irish come out of Wednesday with at least one new offensive lineman (check), C’Bo Flemister at running back (check), and the two remaining defensive backs (check and check). They accomplished that with the added bonus of signing an explosive slot receiver in Lawrence Keys.

The staff pretty much messed around and got a triple double. (It was a good day)

That good day was the final touch on a really good class. It’s a class where they pretty much hit on all of their needs. Yes, a stud edge rusher recruit to go with Justin Ademilola would have been nice. I wouldn’t have complained if they had an elite prospect that they could have plugged in to left tackle too. But the numbers and the athletes that they did sign open up possibilities for those spots down the road.

There are linebackers like Ovie Oghoufo and Jack Lamb that could end up at Drop later on just like there are safeties like Derrik Allen and Paul Moala that could end up at Rover. I could see Luke Jones or Jarrett Patterson playing on the interior at center or guard. It also wouldn’t surprise me if one of those players end up playing left tackle.

I think the biggest reason this class is very good has as much to do with players that have the potential to be difference makers like Houston Griffith, Phil Jurkovec, and Derrik Allen as it does with them signing numbers that they will allow them to move players where they fit best.

That goes for the players I previously mentioned as well as Joe Wilkins Jr. and Tariq Bracy who are skilled enough to project to offense too. If Notre Dame had missed on DJ Brown, Boykin, Flemister, or Patterson the last day, then I’d have a lot “Yeah, but…” feelings about this class. They landed all four of those guys and Keys.

Because of that I slept a lot better last night than I did on Tuesday.

2. The class was a top-10 class. Just like there is a significant difference between the Irish finishing 11th in the final AP poll and making the Playoff, there is a big difference between being near the bottom of the top-10 than being in the top four or five in recruiting. Georgia, Ohio State, USC, and Texas and their respective classes are loaded with the elite of the elite. Notre Dame has a lot fewer of those guys.

Obviously they’d like that to change in the future. It’s how a class can go from pretty good to what Ohio State has been doing on the regular under Urban Meyer. Or at least somewhere closer to that.

I don’t want to dwell on losing offensive tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere to the Buckeyes. I think that Ohio State won that battle against Notre Dame largely because of his relationship with Greg Schiano, who announced he is not joining the New England Patriots staff. Schiano had an edge with Petit-Frere that already gave them a huge advantage.

If he had left, then maybe it would have been a different story. With Schiano staying, that was always going to be tough to overcome for someone like NPF who said he chose Ohio State because it felt more like family.

Ultimately that’s the kind of recruiting race that the Irish has to win. They have to be able to overcome the hometown team, a long relationship with a coach, or whatever the situation to land those elite of the elite prospects that are a fit for Notre Dame like NPF or others they have missed on in recent years.

The best way to improve their chances, aside from continuing to grind on the recruiting trail, is to win more games. Maybe that sounds like a chicken and egg thing because they need more elite players to win more games, but I look at the roster next year and know they are capable of winning 10 or more games again next season. I don’t know if the roster can be good enough to be a Playoff team or not. They are good enough to have a season that is as good or better than the season they just had, though.

They have to show they are building to something on the field. Do that and the recruiting results can build along with it.

3. One other thing to improve with those top guys is to change up the strategy a bit. They don’t have to change everything they are doing, but doing the same thing will likely result in the same kind of class. A tweak here or there with the overall strategy could make a big difference.

We’ve already seen them be more aggressive with offers than ever before with 2019 recruits, which I love to see. They just had a very successful Junior Day with several high priority targets on campus. They’re having another Junior Day on March 3rd to build on that. Mike also spoke with Mike Elston and he said they probably won’t do Irish Invasion because of the early visits. They’ll probably replace it with something else like a barbecue in July, which is something other programs have been doing for awhile. To me, that’s something that I think would be a much needed change.

While the idea behind Invasion has always been a good one, the fact that they haven’t had strong enough competition at each position or that prospects have shown up and not competed has dampened my enthusiasm about the event. If it’s just about getting players on campus, then a barbecue is probably a lot better.

I know the evaluation part of it is great, but many of the best players in 2019 will already be competing at The Opening or other national showcases around that same time. There is also big 7 on 7 events going on too. To me it’s more important to just get them to Notre Dame than anything else and they could probably use a break from competition.

If they want to spin off Invasion into something else, it would be much better for them to do something with only 2020 and 2021 prospects instead. I don’t know if they’ll do that, but it’s what I hope happens.

4. It wasn’t fun to see Georgia continue to add to their already ridiculous class. I can’t say I felt the same about seeing Michigan and Stanford close with a whimper.

Jim Harbaugh’s staff put together a recruiting class with some good players, but they are a significant step down from the last two they had. I don’t know if that means the Wolverines are losing steam as a program under Harbaugh, but if that is the case, then it’s not a bad time to do so with Notre Dame set to play them again the next two years.

There are even more red flags with Stanford’s class, though. They signed some good players led by 4 star quarterback Tanner McKee, but they only brought in 15 this year. It’s not abnormal for them to sign a smaller class, but they only signed 13 last year as well. They signed one more player in two years than the Irish have signed this year. My math says that’s not good.

In fact, that’s pretty horrible. And McKee is going on a two-year mission so he won’t actually be on the team until 2020. So we might as well call it 27 over two years.

This is after they lost three players early to the NFL Draft too. Scholarships should be available. I know they don’t run players off like many other programs, but this can’t be good for their numbers at several positions. It also could be ugly for them in a a few years when the class of 2017 and 2018 are juniors and seniors.

Maybe it was the new early signing period that hurt them and they couldn’t use their previous strategy of swooping in late after a player was admitted to the school in late December. I can’t say I know exactly what the deal was, but I know that they won’t be in a good spot in a few years unless the majority of these players develop and almost all of them stay healthy.

There’s always been talk about the decline of Stanford under David Shaw. It’s never been more than hopeful talk amongst Notre Dame fans and Stanford’s Pac-12 rivals, though. This time there may be some truth to it. I think the Cardinal will be good next year, but could be in line for a downturn after that because of the lack of numbers in recruiting.

5. There are always a couple of nuggets of information that leak out about the team on signing day after the coaches meet with the media. The one that interested me the most from yesterday was Elston saying Jerry Tillery and Jonathan Bonner were going to switch positions at defensive tackle with Tillery going to three technique and Bonner moving to one tech.

I really like this move for a couple of reasons. The first is that Bonner had to play some one tech out of necessity last season and I felt he did a really solid job when he was put there. I don’t think the transition will be very difficult for him.

The second is that Tillery proved last season to be the best pass rusher on the team and moving him back to 3 tech will give him more opportunities to be one on one with guards. He led the team in sacks and quarterback hurries from the most difficult position on the line to get a pass rush. Imagine if he can be just as good from a more advantageous spot to rush the quarterback? That could mean even more pressure from the interior for the Irish this fall.

For those reasons, I think it’s in the best interest of the team for that move to be made. I also agree with Elston that it’s in the best interest of Tillery too because 3 tech is where he will likely play in the NFL as well. It’s a win-win in my opinion. Tillery became a better overall player having to play the one tech last season. Now he can play there in a pinch if they need him and he’ll be a stronger player at 3 tech as a senior.

6. All the focus was on recruiting this past week, but this caught my eye when I saw the news a few days ago. Chip Kelly and UCLA are bringing in someone from the NFL that worked as a Next Gen Stats Researcher in a role for Strategic Intelligence:

In his Twitter bio, Young mentions recruiting, gameplanning, and research for his role with UCLA. Frankly, that covers a lot of ground so it’s tough to say specifically what it will include. I do know that Young’s background involves accumulating data and using it to project player and team production. Essentially, Kelly is bringing in Young to help them on the analytics side of things.

I don’t know how well it will work out in this specific situation, but I love thought behind it. Kelly is bringing in Young in an effort to gain an edge in several areas. Football coaches often use numbers to help them make decisions, but probably don’t use them enough. Imagine if you had data that others didn’t have to help you make decisions to find better players or make smarter calls in games. I would say that would be a pretty big advantage to have that.

I have no idea if Notre Dame will go this route in the future, but NFL teams like the Patriots and Eagles have been using data to formulate strategy for awhile. It seems to be working out pretty good for them.

This is where things are headed in football. One could argue that things are already there with the NFL and now UCLA making a hire like this. Notre Dame is often a step behind when it comes to most areas. I would love to see them catch on with this early and get ahead of most other programs by hiring someone similar to Young in the near future.