Way-Too-Early Vanderbilt Preview
“S-E-C! S-E-C! S-E-C!”
That’s something Vanderbilt fans have not chanted very often despite playing in what’s supposed to be the best conference in college football. It’s a program that has been routinely near the bottom of the SEC in football. They’ve simply never been able to find sustained success despite finding it in other sports like baseball.
The Commodores are visiting Notre Dame in week three this season. This isn’t Georgia or Alabama, though. Head coach Derek Mason, a very successful defensive coordinator at Stanford, has helped them be competitive at Vandy the last two seasons. But that’s about the nicest thing one could say about their program.
After a dip in the two seasons following James Franklin’s departure for Penn State, Mason got them to a bowl game in 2016. They ended up trending backwards last season going 5-7 and 1-7 against conference competition.
It might be more of the same for them this season. They are the 108th in the nation in terms of returning production on both sides of the ball. The defense was ranked 20th in S&P+ in 2015, but fell back to 67th last year.
While they have done a decent job of recruiting (41st in the most recent recruiting rankings), this is a team that will have a clear talent disadvantage heading into Notre Dame.
Good News for Notre Dame
The running game was not good last season (3.7 yards per carry) and they are losing their top back. Vandy has pretty much been bizarro Stanford when it comes to their running game since Mason took over in 2014. Coordinator Andy Ludwig brought the hope of some improvement when they finally ran for over 4 yards per carry (4.3) in 2016, but they fell back down to earth again last season.
Whether it’s the offensive line, the backs, or the combination of both, they don’t have the dudes who are going to control the game on the ground.
The offense is losing it’s two top receivers who had a combined 104 receptions. We’ll have to see if they are others ready to step up in their place, but the passing offense (20th in S&P+) was one of the only bright spots for them last season. With the lack of success running the ball, it’s not a great thing to have to rely on an inexperienced group of receivers against a veteran Irish secondary.
Against programs with far superior recruited talent in 2017, Vandy got boat-raced. They lost 59-0 to Alabama, 38-24 to Florida, 45-14 to Georgia, and 57-35 to Ole Miss. Basically, if Notre Dame takes care of business and plays up to their talent level, there is no reason why this game shouldn’t end up end being a comfortable win.
Bad News for Notre Dame
Mason is trying to reboot some things with four new staff members, including defensive coordinator Jason Tarver. They worked together at Stanford back in 2011 before Tarver moved on to the NFL the last six years.
I don’t know if Tarver and Mason together is going to make them much better on defense, but most of their best players return on that side of the ball. Former 4 star recruit Joejuan Williams is a very good corner that finished with10 pass breakups in '17. At 6’3”, he can match up with a Miles Boykin or Chase Claypool better than almost anyone the Irish will face this fall.
Outside linebacker Charles Wright is returning for his senior season after putting up 9 sacks. With a new left tackle starting for Notre Dame this season, a matchup with Wright will be one to watch. Defensive end Dare Odeyingbo produced 11 tackles for loss last season as well. They’ll have talent on all three levels of the defense and I expect them to be much better than they were.
While they lost skill talent on offense, senior quarterback Kyle Shurmur is a good player. He threw for 26 touchdowns against 10 interceptions last season. He is not a running threat, but doesn’t have to be as much because they’ve done a good job protecting him. Vandy was 25th in Adjusted Sack Rate.
I’m not sure if it will continue, but the offense was 25th and 2nd in red zone touchdown percentage the last two seasons. When they get down to that area of the field, they typically end up with six. That’s something to make note of after Notre Dame was 25th in red zone touchdown percentage on defense.
Spring Questions
They have a lot of them. For starters, they need to make some progress with their running game. That’s been a four year problem and I doubt it gets fixed in one spring, but the lack of consistency and explosive plays on the ground is an issue.
The one receiver they return with solid production is Kalija Limpscomb. He has been able to generate some big chunk plays through the air (16.5 yards per catch and 8 touchdowns), but now he has to be their number one receiver. Can he develop into the go-to guy for Shurmur?
On defense it’s all about translating the strong play of a few individuals and hoping they can build a strong unit under Tarver’s direction. Mason was hoping to turn Vanderbilt into Stanford East, but they haven’t had the running game or the defense like the Cardinal had when Mason was in Palo Alto.
Mason’s 2013 Stanford defense led the nation in sacks and finished in the top-10 in red zone touchdown percentage. Last season Vandy was only above average in Havoc Rate (47th) and finished 110th in the red zone when it came to giving up six.
That mentality that was there with that Stanford defense hasn’t been present at Vanderbilt. They’ll need to find it this spring and in the fall for them to have a shot at knocking off Notre Dame.