Scouting Report | Michigan
Here. We. Go.
Finally, we’re here. Notre Dame and Michigan, at night, in Notre Dame Stadium to kickoff the 2018 season.
College Gameday will be there. The eyes of most college football fans will be on both teams. To call it a big game is underselling it. It’s going to be huge and has massive implications for both programs.
The game is arguably more important for Michigan than it is for the Irish. Jim Harbaugh is 1-5 against Michigan State and Ohio State in his three seasons back in Ann Arbor. Going 1-6 against them and Notre Dame would not a great look.
The Wolverines have lost lost 16 straight on the road against ranked teams and are 0-4 under Harbaugh in those games. That alone has to have Michigan fans worried about this matchup.
What has to have them feeling better is what Michigan has coming back. They have 17 returning starters, 9 from a defense that ranked 6th in yards per play and 10th in S&P+. This could not only be the best defense Notre Dame faces this fall, but possibly the best defense in the nation overall.
78% of Michigan’s overall production is returning on offense and defense, but the numbers coming back at quarterback and receiver are not exactly something to be proud of. That’s exactly why they were ecstatic to get some new blood at quarterback in former 5-star recruit Shea Patterson. To no one’s surprise, he was named their starting quarterback last week.
Harbaugh gave his staff a reboot similar to the one Notre Dame had in 2017. That includes a new strength and conditioning coach. All reports are positive about the changes so far. Time will tell if the can have the same impact as the ones Brian Kelly made.
Primarily due to the strength of their defense, the Wolverines begin the year as a dark horse playoff pick. But things could get a lot shakier if they lose this game and it should be a tightly contest contest.
Injuries
Wide receiver Tarik Black was the starter at X and projected to be a star. He didn’t get to showcase all of his talent last season because of a season ending injury to his foot in their third game. It appears he won’t be available for this game with an injury to his other foot.
This is a big loss for them. Former 4-star recruit Nico Collins needs to step up in his absence. He is a big target (6’4” 215) and it has been reported he had a strong camp, but the Irish corners have faced similar types of receivers this entire summer.
One player we know will be out is 2016 starting left tackle Grant Newsome. He has retired from football due to a knee injury. He wasn’t expected to play based on camp, but there was hope earlier this year that he could come back after missing over a year of action.
Harbaugh is notoriously secretive with injuries so we might not get much clarity on some others that have been rumored.
Offense
Michigan finished 60th, 61st, and 101st in YPP in the last three seasons on offense. They finished 38th, 40th, and 85th in S&P+.
Last year they were bad. Harbaugh’s first two seasons they were average. Are they going to be above average this season?
That’s the $64,000 question because that would make this game a tougher challenge for what should be a great Notre Dame defense.
Expected Strengths:
It’s rare for a Harbaugh coached team to not be strong at the tight end position and this team is no exception. Former highly touted dual-threat quarterback recruit Zach Gentry is now a dangerous weapon as a receiver that put up 17.8 yards per reception. “Beast” is the best way to describe him at 6’8” 262. He and Sean McKeon (combined 48 catches and five touchdowns) are a very strong duo.
Even though they have some concerns on the offensive line, they still ran the ball pretty well and are expected to do so again. They were 14th in S&P+ rushing offense rating. Karan Higdon and Chris Evans (1,679 yards and 17 touchdowns combined) may not be stars, but both are very good.
They finished 7th in Power Success Rate, which measures short yardage runs. They prepare to be physical and they are going to try and punch Notre Dame’s front in the mouth.
Last season the quarterback play was by far the biggest weakness on the team. After their starter went down, John O’Korn and Brandon Peters took over and did not do well. Enter Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson. He has the talent to turn their weakness into a strength.
As I wrote in a piece breaking him down earlier this summer...
The former 5-star recruit that put up some prolific numbers at Ole Miss in his 10 games he started and is considered a massive upgrade over the other options for the Wolverines. Patterson put up 322.7 yards per game and 8.7 yards per attempt in his seven games last season. That would have put him 7th and 13th in the nation in those categories if he played the entire season.
He has a big arm, can thread the ball into tight windows, and is an elusive athlete that can create something out of nothing. Based on all of that, it sure looks like Jim Harbaugh finally has his Andrew Luck in Ann Arbor.
That’s the best case scenario for Michigan and Patterson and the worst case for Notre Dame. (I’ll get into the worst case for Patterson right now.)
Potential Weaknesses:
With no number one receiver in Black, that’s going to hurt their passing game. He flashed some big play ability last season and without him, it’s unclear if Donovan Peoples-Jones can be that guy for them. He has awesome athletic ability and the speed to stretch the field. There is no indication he can be "the guy" for them.
Patterson threw to what many considered to be one of th the best sets of receivers in the nation at Ole Miss. He won’t be throwing to the same talent here. He also struggled when facing better teams and defenses as I pointed out in my earlier piece.
Against FBS programs with winning records he threw two touchdowns against five picks and his yards per attempt dropped to 6.1. He was also 1-5 on the road in his two years at Ole Miss.
Whether you want to say the crowd got to him or not, the pressure seemed to as he struggled when not working with a clean pocket. That’s not great for Michigan because they have significant questions at offensive tackle.
Jon Runyan Jr. and Juwan Bushell-Beatty split the right tackle position for the most part last season. They struggled and it looks like they could be the starters heading into this game. Converted defensive end James Hudson is also a candidate as well as true freshman Jalen Mayfield.
Ed Warriner was brought in to fix the offensive line, but fixing them might not happen right away. They finished 117th in Adjusted Sack Rate last season.
Scheme:
Harbaugh is known for running a pro-style with West Coast principles in his passing game. The combination of him, former Stanford offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton and Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain on staff together suggests that we shouldn’t expect much to change from Harbaugh’s old school ways.
However, a Michigan player was quoted saying that the offense was running less 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) and that they were spreading it out more. Harbaugh could very well be making an adjustment to help Patterson, who has more experience running that type of offense. Harbaugh famously changed things to suit Colin Kaeperneck with the San Francisco 49ers and experienced great success, even if it was only for a brief time.
This could mean many more three receiver sets. Look out for Collins, DPJ, and Grant Perry to be on the field at the same time. Another name to know is former Notre Dame recruiting target Ambry Thomas. There has been buzz of him getting reps at receiver and he was one of the best playing that position at The Opening Finals back in 2017.
Clark Lea likely has prepared for more quarterback run game than he would have based on last year’s Michigan film. Patterson is a very good athlete and was used more as a runner in 2016 when he rushed for 6.5 yards per carry (minus lost sack yardage).
When Lea was asked about preparing for what Michigan might do with all of their offensive minds on staff and Patterson behind center, this is what he had to say:
“There’s a balance there because there can also be paralysis by analysis,” Lea explained. “We can’t prepare for eight offenses. We have built-in structures and have worked on those and evolving those in the offseason and have installed them through fall camp. We’ve spent time on heavy personnel sets, we’ve spent time on spread sets, so there is a base structure that we can get to.
“I think anytime you’re in the opening game, especially with all of the new parts and pieces that we’re looking at, we’re going to need to be able to stick and move and adjust on the go and figure out exactly what that personality. For sure, there’s a study of Patterson. For sure, there’s a digging into what Michigan has been and Coach Harbaugh has been in the past. Then, you look at the coaching parts and pieces he’s added. You’re also researching those guys’ background too to try to get the best picture you can to know what you’re going to need to adjust to Sept. 1st.”
Key Personnel:
QB Shea Patterson - He’s been mentioned extensively so no need to get into too much more detail other than he makes them better than who they would have started.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones - In high school he ran a 4.45 40 and jumped 38.8 inches. He should be the top option for them at receiver with Black not available.
LG Ben Bredeson - A pre-season All-Big Ten selection, he’s their best on the line and will have plenty of head to head snaps against Jerry Tillery.
RB Karan Higdon - Not elite in any one area, but very good in just about every. He’s a patient inside runner and has to be accounted for as a receiver.
TE Zach Gentry - I mentioned his size, but he is a big time athlete. Could be tough to handle for most teams this season.
Key Matchup for the Irish:
Notre Dame’s defensive ends versus Michigan’s tackles. Everyone is excited about the four pass rushers and their potential. Khalid Kareem and the rest of the ends versus their tackles should be a huge advantage for Notre Dame.
Defense
Despite losing most of their production coming into 2017, they still finished with a top-10 defense.
They have talent at all three levels. They have four potential first round picks in their front seven. They have defensive coordinator Don Brown back for his third year leading their defense.
It’s almost like facing the final boss at the beginning of the game rather than the end. That’s essentially what Notre Dame is facing in week one. They can be beaten, but it’s not going to be easy.
Expected Strengths:
They were first in 3rd down defense, first in Havoc Rate, first in Stuff Rate (tackles made at or behind the line of scrimmage). Michigan finished all the way back in third for Power Success Rate (short yardage defense) and second in Adjusted Sack Rate.
And just about everyone is back with other young talent emerging.
I think you can tell from those stats that they are great at generating pressure and creating negative plays. Brown knows he has the personnel to run the defense he wants to run and has been very successful with it.
It’s kind of like The Rock in Jumanji. Strengths seem like it lists everything.
Potential Weaknesses:
Big plays. They gave up their fair share of them and it’s one thing I mentioned in my piece detailing how to attack their style of defense. ISOppp is a stat created by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly that measures explosive plays. Michigan’s defense finished 97th in passing ISOppp and 123rd in rushing ISOppp.
There are big plays out there that can be created against this defense. They frequently put their safeties in man coverage and Notre Dame has to take advantage of that with bigger tight ends or faster receivers against them. Although both of their starting corners are very good, Notre Dame has tall wide receivers that should prove to be a stiff test in this game.
Teams that beat them last year had quarterbacks throw for 7.5 yards per attempt or more in four of five losses. Each loss had a run of 30 yards or more against them and in three games they gave up runs longer than 50.
One way that could possibly create big plays is to utilize uptempo as much as possible. That would keep them more in base and likely prevent them from having the same number of negative plays against Notre Dame’s offense that they are used to.
Scheme:
They call Brown “Dr. Blitz” for a reason. He loves to bring pressure on all downs, but especially on third downs. He feels confident to do so because he has the athletes to can line up in man coverage. They play a good amount of cover 1 with a single high safety.
He moves pieces around and is very creative, which means the protection has to be on high alert at all times. Chase Winovich is a key piece for them as he plays a similar role to the Drop position in Notre Dame’s defense. Viper Khaleke Hudson pretty much plays the Rover position in Notre Dame’s defense and he is moved around and used in different ways too.
Brown is very good at shifting things around the board and ending up with favorable matchups in pass rush situations like a defensive end versus a running back.
Key Personnel:
DE Rashan Gary - There are murmurs about how healthy he is for this game. The Irish have to assume he is healthy and playing. He can be unblockable at times and when at his best is in the same class as NC State’s Bradley Chubb or Stanford’s Solomon Thomas.
DE Chase Winovich - Another strong pass rusher that is often on the other side of the formation from Gary.
LB Khaleke Hudson - Plays the same position Jabrill Peppers did, but plays it better. A dynamic blitzer and huge asset in coverage, he had 17 tackles for loss and nine pass deflections last fall.
LB Devin Bush Jr. - A potential Butkus finalist that is very fast. He makes them closer to an SEC defense than one from the Big Ten.
S Tyree Kinnel - A good player at free safety, but has been beaten when asked to play in man. Someone the Irish should target in their secondary.
CB Lavert Hill - One of the best cover corners in the nation last season and also a factor in run support.
Key Matchup for the Irish:
Notre Dame’s big receivers and tight ends versus Michigan’s secondary. The battle up front is worth mentioning too. I believe that the receivers and tight ends winning contested catches against smaller defensive backs (and in some cases linebackers) is going have a large impact on the outcome of the game, though.
Cole Kmet (6’5”), Alize Mack (6’4”), Miles Boykin (6’5”), and Chase Claypool (6’5”) against a pair of 5’11” corners is going to be important. The pressure will be quick up front and coverage tight. Notre Dame’s big skill guys are going to need to do a little extra to help negate those in this game.
Special Teams:
Michigan returns kicker Quinn Nordin is famously the first recruit that Harbaugh had a sleepover with. Nordin has been good for the Wolverines and made 79.5% of his kicks last year. He has a very big leg.
DPJ took a punt back to the house last season, but aside from that the return game wasn’t great. Overall they finished 58th in the special teams rankings for S&P+. They should be better this year with more returning starters and more depth to fill out all kick coverage teams.
They have been pretty coy about who the punter will be. Brad Robbins returns, but apparently there is competition to take his job. A 40.4 average seems like a pretty big reason why that would be the case.
(A number of the great statistics in this report came from Bill Connelly's Advanced Stats profile of Michigan. )