3 Keys for the ND Offense vs Clemson
It’s been awhile since Notre Dame played a great defense. You’d have to go all the way back to Michigan (5th according to S&P+) to find a time when the Irish played a top group on that side of the ball. Since then they’ve only played three more in the top-50: Northwestern (32nd), USC (40th), and Florida State (41st).
The Clemson defense they’re going to face four weeks from now is an entirely different beast.
They are the top ranked defense in S&P+ and the top defense in terms of yards per play given up as well. Strong in just about every category, scoring points on them is going to be an incredibly difficult task.
If the Irish are going to win this game, there are three key things they’ll have to accomplish on offense. Ironically, I’m going to start with how they need to finish.
Maximize Points
Turning back the clock to Notre Dame losing a close game against Clemson in 2015, they had 5 trips inside the Clemson 40 yard line. They only managed 16 points (3.2 points per trip).
When you lose by two points, that kind of thing sticks with you after.
Fast forward to this season and Clemson is the 2nd best defense in the country at finishing drives giving up only 3.07 points per trip inside their 40. Looking at the close games they’ve played, it jumps out how much that has mattered for them.
Early in the year they beat Texas A&M by two points. The difference in the game? A&M was inside the Clemson 40 on 10 drives and managed only 26 points (2.6 per).
It’s a theme for Clemson in close games. Syracuse had 6 drives reach the 40 and had 23 points (3.83 per). South Carolina created big plays against Clemson, but failed to finish when it mattered. They scored 21 points on 6 chances inside the 40 (3.5 per).
It’s not always about scoring six every time in the red zone, although that’s important. But when Notre Dame reaches field goal territory, they can’t get pushed back and be forced to punt. They need to add points every opportunity they get.
Brian Kelly is going to be well aware of this and that’s one reason why he’s been so aggressive this season when it comes to going for it on 4th down. The 23 times the Irish have gone for it on 4th down are a high under Kelly and the 65.2% conversion rated is tied for 19th in the country.
The Irish have averaged 4.89 points per trip inside the opposition’s 40 yard line (33rd).
Protect the Quarterback
File this under “Duh”.
It seems like an obvious thing they need to do like not turning the ball over or having no pre-snap penalties. The reason why it’s even more important in this game has to do with the defensive line they are facing. It’s better than Michigan’s or Florida State’s. It’s probably the best in America.
Clemson finished first in D-line Havoc Rate, which means they had more tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles than any other group. Overall the defense was 6th in sack rate and 9th in passing down sack rate.
Some of it is scheme and what defensive coordinator Brent Venables does with his pressures, but it really comes down to them being loaded with talent up front. Dexter Lawrence can push the pocket from up the middle and Christian Wilkins can be a devastating player with his lateral quickness from his 3-technique spot. Clelin Ferrell is one of the best edge rushers in the country and Austin Bryant would receive a lot more attention as a great player if he wasn’t playing with these other guys.
On the other side of things, Notre Dame has done a really good job protecting Ian Book over the final ¾ of the season. The work the offensive line has done combined with the Book’s ability to escape the rush have helped them rise up to 12th in passing down sack rate.
Clemson is going to generate pressure, but Notre Dame has to give Book a chance to make as many plays in the passing game as possible. The more time they can give him, the better chance Book will have to attack their secondary.
Texas A&M averaged 10.8 yards per attempt against Clemson. South Carolina averaged 10.2. Those teams combined for eight touchdowns, one interception, and 940 yards through the air.
The only success teams have had against them was from passing so protecting Book in the pocket is going be critical in this game.
Win on 1st Down
Being in 3rd and long against Clemson is a bad idea. Getting to 3rd down in general isn’t that great against them. They are the 5th best team in the country on 3rd and long and have the 6th overall 3rd down defense.
Book has been very good on 3rd down this year (7th in efficiency for quarterbacks with 50 attempts or more), but it’s a lot to ask for him to be lights out on 3rd down all day long against Clemson.
That’s why being successful on 1st down is going to be critically important. It’s easier said than done with Clemson only giving up 2.94 yards per carry, but Notre Dame is going to have to find a way to run the football (expect more on this with a film post before the game).
It’s important to always threaten with the run because play action and RPOs could be massive in helping Notre Dame’s offense. Book has grown a lot this season with his decision-making with RPOs and he’ll need to be at his best against Clemson.
He has been very successful when deciding to pull and throw the ball, though. His completion percentage on RPOs is a ridiculous 88.9% and he’s averaging 9.02 YPA.
Clemson gives up 7.12 YPA on 1st down, which isn’t horrific. It’s just not elite like many of the other things their defense does. It sticks out that South Carolina had completions of 29, 75, 27, 28, and 44 yards on 1st down against Clemson. A&M had completions of 21, 20, 26, 69, 21, 30, 28, and 24 yards against them.
The Irish are going to need to have similar results when it comes to creating big plays on 1st down.