Scouting Report | Cal
Justin Wilcox is 28-28 at Cal since he took over the program in 2017 and that feels about perfect when describing where they are at as a program. They are competitive. They just haven’t been better than okay.
They went 5-7 last year with five of those losses coming in one score games, which always feels appropriate with them. They are in just about every game, but a below average offense has made it difficult to win those games.
Despite a 2-0 start, it could be just as tough for them to get back to a bowl game this year. They lost a lot from last year’s team and have only 53% returning production (110th). Cal does appear to have hit on some transfers and some young players have looked good early against UC-Davis and UNLV, but Notre Dame is a higher-level opponent despite their struggles the last two weeks.
We’ll see if the Bears can raise their games to hang with the Irish. Wilcox hasn’t been able to compile the type of talent necessary to be near the top of the Pac-12 on an annual basis. They have only seven 4-stars on their roster and are 48th in the team talent composite.
They are ranked 70th in F+.
Injuries
DL Brett Johnson is out for the season and that’s a significant loss. He missed all of last year as well and they thought he was going to be a big factor for them.
Offense
Where have you gone, Jeff Tedford? One could even say that some fans might yearn for the days of the “Bear Raid” (only on offense) because Cal has been bad on this side of the ball the last four years. Their highest finish in points per drive was 82nd.
This is year three of Bill Musgrave as the offensive coordinator and they have yet to find the kind of success they would hope for. They simply haven’t had the talent to be one of the better offenses in the Pac-12.
They come into this game ranked 106th in OF+ and have only three starters back from last season.
Expected Strengths
They have a new running back in 4-star freshman running back Jadyn Ott and he rushed for 104 (6.1YPC) vs UC-Davis. His vision, patience, and feet allow him to be successful. He can make defenders miss in the hole and is a threat as a receiver as well. They will try to get him in space to make a play.
It’s a pretty good receiver group that isn’t big on college production, but they have some potential playmakers.
WR Jeremiah Hunter averaged 18.5 yards per catch last season and looks like their WR1 this year. He had 10 targets in week one and he’s a deep threat.
WR J. Michael Sturdivant is another former blue-chip recruit who Notre Dame fans will probably be familiar with. I loved him as a prospect out of high school and thought Cal got a steal when they landed him. He’s a big body with strong hands.
WR Mavin Anderson is another former blue-chip recruit who has some ability to make things happen after the catch.
Potential Weaknesses
Purdue transfer Jack Plummer is their quarterback and he’s not a bad one. He’s just someone who needs a lot of help to beat you.
Plummer is not a statue in the pocket, but he’s also not a running threat. He was the starter at Purdue at the beginning of last season and put up good numbers against bad defenses in the first two games (9.1 YPA and 6 touchdowns) of 2021. Purude scored 79 points in those games. In the next two games against Notre Dame and Illinois he averaged 4.95 YPA and they scored 26 points.
He lost the job and now he’s at Cal.
It’s fair to suggest that his first couple of games this year (68.9% completions, 7.4 YPA) is a bit of fool’s gold and those numbers aren’t eye-popping. He’s struggled against the blitz this season.
Overall, they simply don’t have great talent at all positions. They don’t recruit good enough up front (zero blue-chips) and haven’t had a player drafted from their offense since 2017, which means there hasn’t been one player on offense who has been drafted since Wilcox became head coach.
OT Ben Coleman is seen as their top returning offensive lineman and he is making the move from guard to tackle. It’s been a rough transition for him. He’s playing out of position, but they need him at tackle. He gave up four pressures against UC-Davis, but was a better against UNLV.
Their guards are both below average players, #54 Spencer Lovell and #60 Brian Driscoll. I really like the matchup of Notre Dame’s defensive tackles versus their starting interior group.
They have only averaged 3.62 yards per carry on the ground (92nd) and haven’t been explosive against not great defenses (only three plays of 30-yards or more).
They are 97th in red zone touchdown percentage through two games.
Scheme
They are running a bit more 11 personnel (one back, one tight end) this year and last year they played heavier with more 12. I’d expect a pretty decent split there and they did show an unbalanced line look with extra offensive linemen on the field so Notre Dame will have to prepare for that.
Under Musgrave they are 89th and 90th in rushing play percentage at a just under 50% running ratio. That looks pretty similar to where they’ll be this year too.
Musgrave is a West Coast offense guy so there are a lot of five guys as receiving options and an emphasis on the short passing game. They are only a 20.5% play-action team in the passing game
Like a lot of offenses in college football, if they get a big play, they want to get on the ball and run it right away. That helped them get into the end zone on the first drive against UNLV.
They want to get Ott matched up with linebackers and they will attack that matchup in the pass game.
Key Players
QB Jack Plummer - He has a high completion percentage on 3rd down (78.9%), but settles for a lot of check downs short of the sticks.
RB Jadyn Ott - 6.5 YPC on the year and likely to get featured more and more for them.
WR Jeremiah Hunter - Vertical threat who they will take shots with when he gets a one on one. Had a 37-yard reception to set up a touchdown against UNLV.
WR J. Michael Sturdivant - 10 targets last week led the team. Been mostly a short and intermediate target so far.
Key for Notre Dame
Force Plummer to beat them
Plummer played in a very pass-happy offense at Purdue and this offense is a bit more balanced. If Notre Dame stops the run well and makes Plummer have to drop back and repeatedly make tight window throws to try and beat them, I don’t think he is capable of pulling it off.
And if Notre Dame can get after him with their pass rush, then relying on Plummer to play lights out will be a losing proposition for them. If they can keep the Cal running game in-check like it has been so far this season, then Notre Dame should be in very good shape.
Defense
The general college football fan who hasn’t watched a lot of Cal football in recent years probably thinks of Aaron Rodgers, Desean Jackson, Jahvid Best, or Marshawn Lynch when thinking of the program. It’s been a long time since any of those players played for the Bears and they all played offense.
They probably don’t know that Cal’s program has been built around defense and it’s what brought them back to respectability after the disastrous Sonny Dykes era. Wilcox and longtime colleague and current Cal defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon have developed some really solid defenses. This current one is ranked 29th in DF+.
Expected Strengths
It’s a defense that doesn’t give teams a lot to work with. They are assignment sound the majority of the time and they don’t give up many big plays. In the last three full seasons, not including the partial 2020 season, they finished 13th, 25th, and 6th in plays of 30-yards or more given up from scrimmage. They’ve only given up one pass of 30-yards or more through two games.
They have some good inside linebackers in Femi Oladejo and Washington transfer Jackson Sirmon and the depth there is solid. Sirmon is a reliable presence against the inside run who knows how to find the football. Linebackers are the strength of their defense.
Another transfer, ex-Utah DL Xavier Carlton, flashed for them as well. He’s long with good lateral explosiveness. He’s been lined up on the edge and rushed from the interior. Myles Jernigan has been their best pass rusher and he’s got some twitch off the edge. Even without Johnson, the interior defensive line is solid and depth is pretty good.
They might not have a true star in the secondary, but the safety play is good. Craig Woodson and Daniel Scott are a good combo. Scott is more of a box safety who makes an impact closer to the line of scrimmage.
Potential Weaknesses
They don’t create a ton of Havoc. 15.6% through two games against an FCS opponent and UNLV isn’t very good.
Their pass rush isn’t great. They only had a 20.8% pressure rate vs UC-Davis and they don’t have a dominant pass rusher who they can rely on if they aren’t bringing additional rushers.
They haven’t tackled to their normal standard this season and PFF currently has them ranked 119th in the country in that category.
Scheme
The base is technically a 3-4, but like just about every defense these days, it’s a hybrid scheme where fronts and alignments are varied often. They have the typical big three down linemen, but the outside linebackers are edge defenders and players like Carlton and Odua Isibor are listed as OLBs, but neither dropped into coverage once in the first two games.
They aren’t a heavy blitz team. They play a lot of matchup zone, and they’ll look to sit on those short routes much like Marshall did. They did play more man to man against UNLV than they seemed to the previous week against UC-Davis.
Key Players
LB Jackson Sirmon - He led Washington in tackles last season and is leading Cal this season.
DE Myles Jernigan - Has a 16.1 pass rush win percentage this season and seven total pressures.
S Craig Woodson - Was first team All-Pac 12 for PFF last season and is solid across the board.
LB Oluwafemi Oladejo - Big (6’3” 255) and can move really well. He has star potential.
Key for Notre Dame
Be patient
Cal plays a style of defense that is meant to frustrate offenses on early downs and it can be difficult to play against because they force offenses to grind out long drives the majority of the time. The Irish have to be patient and be content with moving the chains, but pounce when they get opportunities to create big plays.
Special Teams
K Dario Longhetto is back and is 4 for 5 on the season with his only miss coming from beyond 40-yards. He made 78.6% of his kicks last year, all of his misses came from beyond 40-yards (4 of 7). He has a career long of 52-yards.
P Jamieson Sheahan is also back and he’s averaging over 48 yards per punt through the first two games.
They haven’t had anyone make an impact in the return game yet.
Overview
If Notre Dame was playing up to their potential, then this is the kind of game they would dominate with the way Cal has struggled with their O-line. But the Irish aren’t and Cal is bringing a defense to South Bend that should keep them competitive.
This game means a lot for Marcus Freeman, his staff, and the players. We’ll see if they respond the way they should against a Cal team with a lot of flaws.
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