Scouting Report | BYU
For some teams, five games into a season isn’t enough to know who a team is. For BYU, we know exactly who they are.
They are a good team, but not a great one.
Ranked 39th in SP+, head coach Kalani Sitake and this BYU squad have been tested with tough matchups against Baylor and Oregon. They also have had three much easier matchups against Wyoming, South Florida, and Utah State, all of whom aren’t rated in the top-100 of SP+.
Notre Dame showed something against North Carolina, but BYU is a much better all-around team and they’ve gone 25-5 in their last 30 games. It will be a tough test for the both sides of the ball in Las Vegas.
Injuries/Suspensions
CB Gabe Jeudy-Lally will miss the first half of this game because of a targeting call against him in the second half of the Utah State game. He started last game and is a transfer from Vanderbilt.
Long-snapper Austin Riggs is expected to be out and that’s a big one because their specialists have struggled.
WR Puka Nacua’s status is unknown. He’s only played in two games this year and left the Wyoming game with an injury to his knee that appeared to be significant. They have deep wide receiver room, but he’s the best of the bunch.
Offense
It might not be reminiscent of the Ty Detmer days, but BYU’s offense is looking a lot more like that over the past few seasons. They proved last year they weren’t a one-year wonder with Zach Wilson. With a new quarterback and a new star at running back, the offense was still one of the best in the country.
This season they haven’t played up to that same level, but they are still very good. They’re averaging 6.75 yards per play, 23rd, and are 24th in EPA (expected points added) per play. ESPN’s Bill Connelly has the offense rated 35th in SP+.
Part of the reason why they have slightly underachieved has to do with injuries, but they are getting some players back and have had a couple of new playmakers emerge early in the season.
Expected Strengths
The passing game is very good. QB Jaren Hall is a rising NFL prospect. He processes things quickly in the pocket, has an arm that allows them to attack the entire field, and his ability to improvise is a problem for defenses. He can escape the rush and is looking to pass first, but he’s a good runner and Notre Dame will have to account for him much like they did with Drake Maye.
Hall also scored a touchdown on a double pass play that they ran against Baylor. He has 12 touchdowns and only one interception. He’s really smart with the football and rarely forces a throw that he shouldn’t make.
He’s a great deep ball thrower, PFF has him graded 13th in the country on deep throws, and he has several targets he can go to down the field. One of them is WR Gunner Romney. His first game back was last week, but we should expect him to be more involved against Notre Dame. He has 4.4 40 speed.
Nacua is a former top-100 recruit who transferred from Washington and he’s a big play waiting to happen. He averaged over 18-yards per catch last season and has a 75-yard touchdown run this season. When you add in Keanu Hill (20.6 yards per reception) and Chase Roberts (6’4” 200 and had 8 for 122 vs Baylor), they have a deep group.
The pass protection has been outstanding for them. Hall has only been pressured on 21.6% of drop backs.. LT Blake Freeland and G Clark Barrington are players who could start for just about any program in the country.
RB Miles Davis is someone who really popped for me when I saw him run. He’s physical and fast. Davis has 10 forced missed tackles on only 25 carries and he broke off a 70-yard run vs Wyoming.
Potential Weaknesses
The run game has looked anemic at times. They averaged only 2.5 yards per carry vs Oregon and Baylor and their big rushing games came against defenses that were ranked 131st and 87th in EPA per rush.
I don’t think the backs are bad by any means. Davis has some exciting flashes and Cal transfer Christopher Brooks is a bruiser (6’1” 230), but Brooks’ 6.0 YPC is misleading. He rushed for 24 carries for 225 against USF and Utah State, but the other three games he has 25 carries for 69 yards.
The line has been good in pass protection, but they don’t get enough consistent movement in the running game. Baylor and Oregon were much better than them up front. They are 101st in red zone touchdown percentage, which does go hand in hand with the struggles with the running game.
It also stood out to me that Hall vs Wyoming, Utah State, and South Florida averaged 9.6 yards per attempt and his YPA was down 7.1 vs Oregon and Baylor. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they had a harder time against the two Power 5 defenses they faced.
Scheme
They run a good amount of wide zone in the run game, but a little less than they did the last two years based on the four games I have watched. They are really effective with play-action off of it, which is why it’s critical to win on 1st down and get them into more obvious passing situations.
They are a 54.5% pass team and that’s a big uptick from the last two years where they had more success running the ball and used more two tight ends sets. They will play in 12 (one back two tight ends) personnel, but the strength of the offense is at wide receiver so there is a lot more 11 (one back, one tight end).
There’s a lot of pre-snap motion with the receivers and they will give the ball to them on jet sweeps and throw bubble screens to them as well.
Nacua and Romney haven’t played that much this season, but this is something to keep in mind if both players are playing this week. 40% of Nacua’s targets last year were deep shots and 36.7% of Romney’s were as well.
They do try to use tempo on 3rd downs to see if they can get easy conversions.
Key Players
QB Jaren Hall - Ranked 31st in ESPN’s QBR, his rushing numbers don’t reflect the threat he poses when he takes off and runs. He can move the chains.
RB Miles Davis - When he’s inserted into the game, the running game looks different.
WR Puka Nacua - Led them in receiving last year. Will he play?
WR Gunner Romney - They will take a shot with him early in the game much like they did against Utah State.
Key for Notre Dame
Win on 1st down
When BYU is running the ball and able to keep teams off-balance with play-action on 1st down, they are tough to stop. Baylor did a great job against them on early downs and then put Hall in a bind on 3rd down where they went 3 of 14 in the game.
Hall is good enough to make some plays on 3rd and long, but he can’t do that all game long.
Defense
BYU’s defense was putrid last season so what they’ve done this year has been a significant improvement. They are giving up only 4.89 YPP (29th) and they’ve allowed less than 5.0 YPP and less than 30 points in four of five games.
And yet, they are 93rd in EPA per play and 73rd in points per drive.
The defense got better, but they didn’t go from bad to good. They are rated 44th in SP+ heading into this matchup.
Expected Strengths
They have been very good at not giving up the big play. They have only given up four plays of 30-yards or more all season (tied for 7th).
They play disciplined in coverage and it’s a physical group at the second and third level of the defense. They have done a good job bottling up receivers after the catch.
LB Max Tooley is a downhill player who is fast to the football. He’s a playmaker and the linebackers are solid.
Potential Weaknesses
The run defense isn’t very good. Some of that is scheme driven, but they don’t have any dominant players up front. Utah State hurt them running Power and Counter and that shouldn’t happen with Utah State.
They are 115th in run defense grade on PFF and 122nd in EPA per rush. They simply aren’t disruptive enough up front and get moved at the point of attack too much. They are 93rd in TFLs per game and their Havoc Rate is only 14%.
Some of that is has to do with a lack of any game-wreckers up front, but their 23.2% pressure rate on quarterbacks has a lot to do with it as well. The pass rush isn’t great. In many ways this is a worse version of Cal’s defense.
Scheme
It’s a 3-4, but they are multiple. When Notre Dame is in 11 personnel, expect to see more three down fronts and light boxes inviting the run. They’ll load up when having to match personnel against multiple tight ends.
They play pretty conservatively with some early down run blitzes sporadically mixed in, but they have only blitzed on 16.6% of drop backs. They just like to have seven or eight in coverage as much as possible.
They did attack Baylor way more with the blitz and it worked well (4.9 YPA). BYU blitzed on14 of 32 drop backs (43.8% of the time) so they might turn up the heat more to generate more pressure on the quarterback than they have been.
Key Players
LB Max Tooley - He had a pick six vs Utah State and a pick six with USF.
LB Ben Bywater - Leads the team in tackles and also has two interceptions.
Edge Tyler Batty - The only player on the team with more than 4 pressures on the season (8).
CB Kaleb Hayes - Their best cover guy has three pass breakups this fall and had 11 in 2021.
Key for Notre Dame
Continue to run block like they did against Cal and UNC
Oregon blocked them that well and ran it all over BYU. That’s a recipe for Notre Dame to win and control the game.
Special Teams
Field goal kicking has been a problem. K Jake Oldrody has made only 5 of 10 kicks and all of those misses have been less than 39-yard attempts. He’s 1 for his last 6 and may have lost the job to Justen Smith who made his only attempt (26 yards).
Starting long-snapper Austin Riggs is hurt and maybe that has something to do with the field goal struggles and also may be why P Ryan Rekhow’s average is down about five yards from last season.
They also gave up a kick return touchdown against USF, so it’s been a tough year for special teams for them.
Overview
Here we go again, it’s another game where winning the line of scrimmage will have a massive impact on the outcome.
The Irish are going to have to be able to run the football and get their speedier players opportunities to make plays on offense. If they can do that, the points will come.
It’s going to be a more difficult challenge for the Notre Dame defense, but the defensive line continuing to play like they have in recent weeks will be critical. Stop the run and don’t let the receivers go off and the points will be down.
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