6 Thoughts on a Thursday
Oh, how the tables have turned.
That woebegone offense? Maybe they aren’t so helpless after all.
The defense that carried too much of a burden early in the season? Now we have more questions about them.
That’s not entirely fair considering the Irish offense had a much easier assignment against the North Carolina and BYU defenses, but that’s how quickly things can flip. One week Notre Dame played very good run defense against North Carolina (40% stuff rate on running back runs and allowing only 2.7 yards per carry) and then the next game against BYU the run defense looked problematic (6.5 YPC in the second half and 7.9 YPC on 1st down).
One big difference was who they were missing against BYU (more on that in thought #2), but even looking at the defense as a whole, this isn’t a group that is playing consistent ball at the moment. They’ve looked fantastic in stretches, but have yet to play great for four quarters.
And when it comes to anyone showing that they deserve to be in the conversation as one of the best in the nation at their position, there hasn’t been a player who has shown they need to be mentioned.
I think Al Golden has done a pretty good job, but the results are the results. The defense has been fine for the most part. That’s not the standard, though. They have been much better than fine over the last five seasons.
A statistic I always like to look at for defense is points per drive. It’s valuable because the bottom line is how many points a defense allows and it’s also something that only looks at non-garbage time possessions against FBS vs FBS games. (Shoutout to Brian Fremeau for always having these numbers available)
The Irish are currently 34th in points per drive. That’s good, but again, that is below the standard they set. They were 11th in 2021 under Marcus Freeman. They were 8th, 6th, and 27th under Clark Lea. They were 21st under Mike Elko.
34th is fine. This isn’t anywhere close to a return to BVG levels (his average PPD was 58th). 34th is just below what everyone expected. Things can and likely will get better with the defense.
They have faced three top-25 offenses in OF+ in the first three games (Ohio State is 1st, UNC is 14th, and BYU is 25th). They face two in their final seven regular season games (USC is 9th, Clemson is 23rd) and the next highest ranked offense is 54th (Syracuse). Three of the seven are ranked 94th or lower (UNLV, Boston College, and Navy).
It has to be more than just playing lesser competition, though. They need more consistency from veteran players. They need Al Golden to be better (it is his first time calling a defense in many years). They need a player or two to make the leap like Ade Ogundeji and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did at the end of the 2019 season.
Ogundeji had 7.5 Havoc plays in the final three games. JOK had 11 of his 19.5 in the final five games.
I think this could be the week where we see a strong four quarters from the Notre Dame defense. It’s certainly set up well with Stanford’s bad offensive line play and injuries forcing two starters out.
They have already gone through step one where they’ve controlled the game for several series in a row. The next step is to make that happen for all four quarters.
2. This to me was the most concerning number from the BYU game: the Cougars averaged 3.3 before contact.
That starts up front and to me it was glaringly obvious how much they missed Howard Cross. He’s been great playing the run this year and there is a drop off at defensive tackle when he’s not in the game.
I don’t even think he’s a natural nose guard either. He’s built to be a 3-tech and probably should play there next season when Jayson Ademilola is gone. He’s the smallest defensive tackle they have, but his presence inside is much bigger than his measurables.
It sounds like he will be available this game and Notre Dame needs him to be. I don’t think their run defense is the same without him.
3. Who will play Vyper for Notre Dame next year is going to be the question that lingers for a while because it’s one of those situations that is going to stare everyone in the face like wide receiver did last year.
It’s inevitable because everyone knows that Isaiah Foskey and Justin Ademilola won’t be back (though Ademilola will technically have one more year if he wants to).
A few people asked me on Twitter if Marist Liufau might be an option to move there next season. It is possible he could. He’s lined up on the line on 74 snaps this season and the staff has talked about him as a hybrid defender.
He wouldn’t be the biggest option for that spot, but it’s not like Jordan Botelho or Joshua Burnham are either.
Liufau might have to add weight and make the permanent move there. The part that I don’t like about it is that Notre Dame might come into this offseason and not have a choice. It might be the only option for them. That’s never a scenario anyone wants to be in with a position.
Del Alexander gets a lot of blame for the lack of depth at receiver. People shouldn’t overlook Mike Elston with what could happen at Vyper. Jordan Botelho, Devin Aupui, and WIll Schweitzer were the only players who were projected to play Vyper that Notre Dame signed in the 2020 and 2021 recruiting classes. It’s not a great sign that in the spring of 2022, Aupui wasn’t on the team and both Botelho and Schweitzer were practicing with the linebackers.
4. On Hit & Hustle yesterday, Greg and I discussed if there is such a thing as a “gamer”. I agree with Marcus Freeman. They don’t exist.
All of the years that I played, coached, and covered college football, I have never seen anyone be inconsistent in practice then play consistently great in games. That’s why I greatly appreciate when we (the media) get to see practices in the spring and in the summer.
The more access we get, the better idea we have of who is on their way to being great and who isn’t quite there yet.
Even though Miles Boykin started off the season fairly slow in 2018, it wasn’t hard to imagine him emerging as a WR1 for the Irish because he built off of his great bowl performance with dominating performances in practice in the spring and summer. He eventually became that player on Saturdays.
The same thing happened with Julian Love in 2017, Chase Claypool in 2019, and Kyle Hamilton in 2019. It’s also one major reason why I was never fully bought in with Jafar Armstrong being this big time weapon for Notre Dame. With all of the practices I went to, I never saw that with Armstrong. Tony Jones was always much better in practice, which is why it wasn’t surprising to me that Jones ended up being the much better player.
It makes sense after seeing Prince Kollie make an athletic play like the one he made on his sack against BYU that everyone is hoping to see him play more. I think everyone should be expecting him to after reading these comments from Golden on how he’s currently practicing.
"Today, different level. Today, different level. Different practice level from him than previously. I would say the last two weeks he's improved. The last time I saw you guys before North Carolina, I said, 'It's getting there.'
"Then he played some nice plays against Carolina and then he makes the play last week, so that's exciting. But it's starting here (on the practice field). It's starting here. He's getting what he's earning in practice and it's starting to show up on the field. I'm happy for the young man."
5. The Irish offense works at a slower pace than most in college football. They are 117th in seconds per play. They were 54th last year.
Notre Dame is also ninth in the country in time of possession per game. A lot of that has come from the last two games where the Irish look like they have found a groove on offense where they are coming up to the line and checking into the right play. They’ve also been able to run four minute offense really well.
I’m sure Tommy Rees would love to be more dynamic in the passing game, but I think it’s fairly clear that this style of offense, where they get to scan the defense and check into different plays to exploit matchups, is the one we can expect to see the rest of this season.
I’m here for it. I’m excited to see more of it. It can work really well when the coach is pushing the right buttons and the players are executing like they have been the last two games.
6. Is it surprising to anyone that Notre Dame has played the toughest schedule in the country? They should have never lost against Marshall, but compare their record to these 17 that Phil Steele lists and they’re one of only seven teams listed who has a winning record.
It’s also pretty incredible that Marcus Freeman had the misfortune of having the hardest schedule in the country through his first five games. At least he’s got Stanford next.
Notre Dame can’t let up. They have to continue to get better and not just because they still have Clemson and USC on the schedule. The team is not good enough yet to get away with having a letdown against anyone.
Whatever happens the rest of the way, rankings don’t matter. That will all get worked out later on if they do keep on winning. What matters is building something that lasts.
This season has to be the foundation of it and the first brick is down after the first five games. It’s time to get ready for the next one and it starts with beating down an inferior opponent on Saturday night.
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