Scouting Report | UNLV
The jury is out on whether or not it’s a good time to play Notre Dame after another unexpected loss, but the verdict is in on if it’s a good time to play UNLV. After a second straight blowout defeat, this UNLV team might be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Irish.
Ranked 107th in F+, UNLV started the season 4-1 with a close loss to California. In the last two weeks they have lost by a combined score of 82-14 against San Jose State and Air Force.
Head coach Marcus Arroyo, previously the offensive coordinator at Oregon, appears to have the program headed in the right direction. They just aren’t quite there yet to be a contender in the Mountain West.
Injuries
Starting QB Doug Brumfield had head and ankle injuries which forced him to leave the San Jose State game. He’s currently listed as day-to-day so we’ll see if he can get back for this game. He had a concussion so nothing is ever concrete with when a player is ready to come back.
Starting RB Aidan Robbins left the Air Force game with a knee injury. If he can’t go, they are thin at the running back position.
WR Kyle Williams will be back and that’s a big addition. He’s only played four games this season and is one of their better players on offense.
Edge Adam Plant will be back for this game and he’s probably their best pass rusher.
Offense
Things looked to be trending up for UNLV to start this season with more than 30 points scored in four of their first five games, but the last two have brought them back down to earth.
They are ranked 96th in OF+, 56th in EPA per play, 76th in points per drive, and 89th in yards per play vs FBS competition.
Expected Strengths
They have been effective running the ball with Robbins, a 230 pound back who is tough to bring down. They are 10th in EPA per rush and the offensive line has done well blocking outside zone. The Irish front four will have to get penetration to slow that down.
They are 28th in red zone touchdown percentage so they have made the most of their scoring opportunities. The issue is that they haven’t had enough of them.
He started out horribly against SJSU, but I have liked a lot of what I have seen from Brumfield aside from that. He has a live arm and is a good athlete. They definitely missed him the last two games and when he’s on, the offense has the potential for big plays. He has really nice touch on the deep ball.
Brumfield is also a good runner who has averaged 5.6 yards per carry when taking out sacks.
Potential Weaknesses
If Brumfield can’t go, it will either be Cameron Friel or Tennessee transfer Harrison Bailey. Friel processes things faster and gets the ball out quicker, but he has an issue with ball security. With Bailey, everything is a tick slow. Their ceiling is much higher with Friel, but he has fumbled three times this season in limited opportunities.
They are 88th in EPA per pass, but not having Brumfield for most of the last two games and not having Williams at receiver has had an impact on that number in my opinion.
They are 112th in sack rate. Both starting tackles, Daviyon McDaniel and Tiger Shanks, have given up a lot of pressures. G Armani Trigg-Wright is not good in pass protection either.
That all leads into them being 92nd in 3rd down offense. They don’t protect very well and that means Brumfield isn’t working with a clean pocket often enough in obvious passing situations. Brumfield has an NFL passer rating of 51.49 on 3rd and 6+.
UNLV has a walk-on and 170-pound scat back behind Robbins if he can’t play, so it’s pretty important for them to have Robbins available.
Scheme
They are a 47% pass team, but this offense is more about slinging it and letting that open up the running game. They are primarily an 11 personnel (one back, one tight end) group and do a nice job of attacking the intermediate areas of the field off of play-action.
They mix up a lot of formations and that can make it difficult to prepare for, but most of it is core plays they run with the formation as the only variable.
Key Players
QB Doug Brumfield - PFF has Brumfield ranked as fifth highest graded quarterback in the country.
RB Aidan Robbins - The Louisville transfer had a monster game against North Texas (227 and 7.8 YPC), but that has made his overall numbers a bit misleading.
WR Ricky White - A strong route runner and their leading receiver.
Key for Notre Dame
Get them into 3rd and long
With the way Notre Dame handled 3rd down last game, maybe this isn’t such a great plan. This is an opportunity for them to be much better against a team that has really struggled to protect their quarterback in these situations, though.
Defense
It’s been a boom or bust defense for UNLV this year and in the last two games it’s been too much bust. They are 109th in DF+, 85th in EPA per play, 72nd in points per drive, and 78th in YPP vs FBS competition.
Expected Strengths
They are 18th in sack rate and have had three games with at least four sacks. I’m a fan of both DT Eliel Ehimare and Edge Elijah Shelton up front. Ehimare has a really good motor and he can be very disruptive as a pass rusher.
They have 11 interceptions this season, which is second in the country. Five of those came against Utah State, though. They don’t have a shot at winning this game unless they create turnovers.
They’ve been good on 3rd down as well and are currently 29th in conversion percentage.
LB Austin Ajiake is a very good player. He leads their team in tackles, tackles for loss, and already have 10 Havoc plays on the season.
Boundary CB Nohl Williams is their best cover guy and Jonathan Baldwin is a standout at safety.
Potential Weaknesses
The run defense has been bad. They are 114th in EPA per rush, 128th in opportunity rate, and 112th in stuff rate. They are 90th in TFLs per game. The last two games they were destroyed on the ground. SJSU ran for 5.64 YPC and Air Force had over 400 yards.
Explosive plays against them through the air have been a huge problem. They are 116th in passing plays of 30-yards or more against. They can be attacked vertically and the depth in the secondary is shaky.
Scheme
They play pretty passive on defense and will give easy access throws. That’s primarily because teams have thrown over the top on them. That also means they haven’t been a heavy blitz team, but did blitz more vs SJSU out of desperation.
It will be interesting to see how they approach Notre Dame because one would think they might choose to load up to stop the run, but they are perpetually worried about giving up the big play and that’s a recipe for disaster if they do that.
Key Players
LB Austin Ajiake - He could start for a lot of Power 5 programs. He’s very active and also has two interceptions.
CB Nohl Williams - A very good all-around corner with eight total Havoc plays.
DT Eliel Ehimare - It’s rare to see an interior defensive linemen lead a team in pressures, but that’s what he is doing for them.
Key for Notre Dame
Control the game with the run
The Irish need to lean on what they do best and that’s running the football and they should be able to do that effectively against this UNLV defense. From there they can let the game come to them and get Drew Pyne to rebuild his confidence with some easier throws off of play-action.
Special Teams
UNLV is 12th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ special teams rankings.
K Daniel Gutierrez is 6 of 6 on field goals this season and has the leg to make long kicks.
P Marshall Nichols averages 42.3 yards per punt.
RB Spencer Briggs blocked a punt vs North Texas, but UNLV also gave up a 99-yard kick return touchdown against UNT.
Overview
If Brumfield isn’t available, then I don’t see any way that UNLV can hang in this game. Even if he does, UNLV will still be in tough to keep this close. So much will depend on how Notre Dame decides to treat this game, though. The Irish need to get off to a good start and gain some confidence.
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