Scouting Report | Clemson
From 2015-2020, Clemson was in that exclusive elite group of college football programs.
They were in the College Football Playoff for six straight seasons. They won two national championships and were in the championship game four times. When Notre Dame fans talked about closing the gap, it was a program like Clemson that they were trying to catch.
Last season was a step back for them. Ranked in the top-four of F+ since 2015, they dipped to 15th last season and lost three games for the first time since 2014. This season has been a bit of a bounce back with them starting 8-0, but this hasn’t really been the Clemson we’re used to under Dabo Swinney.
They are 14th in F+ and while they are a very good football team, the offense isn’t close to what it looked like during the peak of their run and the defense hasn’t been as dominant.
The Tigers are undefeated, yet also beatable. Is this inconsistent Notre Dame team good enough to take them down? We’ll see on Saturday night.
The Irish will be facing a team that is coming off of an open week and they should be well rested and ready to go.
Injuries
DT Bryan Bresee has been limited this season, but the bye week certainly helped him. It’s the same with DE Xavier Thomas. It sounds like they are going to be bigger factors in this game than they have been for most of the season.
Starting LB Barrett Carter missed the Syracuse game, but will be back for this one.
This is probably the healthiest they have been all season on defense.
RB Kobe Pace is out, but he was the third option in the backfield.
Offense
Brandon Streeter has taken over the role as offensive coordinator this season and they’ve been significantly improved.
They’re 40th in EPA per play, 21st in points per drive, and rank 31st in OF+. It’s a good offense, but nowhere close to a great one. They are 57th in yards per play vs Power 5 competition and the Irish defense (22nd) is the only defense they’ve played this season that is currently ranked in the DF+ top-35.
Expected Strengths
It’s no surprise that the offense has plenty of great skill talent. The backfield has a terrific one-two punch with RB Will Shipley (6.0 yards per carry) and Phil Mafah (5.2 YPC vs Syracuse). They run hard and are tough to tackle.
Those two are as big of a reason as any why they are 12th in stuff rate.
TEs Davis Allen and Jake Briningstool are both keys to their passing game. They’ve combined for seven touchdowns
They might not have a Tee Higgins or Justyn Ross on the roster, but WR Antonio Williams has developed into a go-to target for them. He’s reliable and has brought in six of seven contested targets. WR Joseph Ngata (6’3” 220) and Beaux Collins (6’3” 205) are both players who Clemson will take shots down the field and are difficult to defend on back shoulder throws.
That leads into QB DJ Uiagalelei, who Notre Dame fans will remember well. He has certainly had some ups and downs, but there is no doubting his arm talent or the fact that he has shown greatly improved pocket presence. He can make any throw on the field and is 11th in PFF’s deep passing grade (throws over 20-yards down the field).
Clemson is 3rd in the country in receptions of 20-yards or more. They are 21st on 3rd down and they’re very good in short yardage plays whether it’s Uiagalelei running it or one of the backs.
They are also 22nd in red zone touchdown percentage where Uigalelei has thrown 10 touchdowns and zero picks. In general, they play clean down there and things like the fumble against Syracuse are an exception.
Potential Weaknesses
The offensive line has been a bit better than expected, but it’s definitely not the strongest group. RT Blake Miller is a true freshman and is a much better run blocker than in pass protection. He’s committed five penalties in the last two weeks.
G Walker Parks isn’t a natural fit inside and he doesn’t anchor well. He’s someone who could struggle in this matchup.
Uiagalelei is much better than he was, but was pulled against Syracuse after throwing two interceptions and if his first read is taken away, he struggles with accuracy and decision-making.
True freshman Cade Klubnik came in for him and Notre Dame should prepare for him to play as well, but they didn’t do much with him as a passer against Syracuse. They ran the football for most of the second half. He’s talented, but they won’t want to have to put him into this road game if they don’t have to.
They need to take those deep shots because they aren’t a team that gets a ton of yards after the catch. That’s partially due to the talent and partially because of the scheme. They try to make a lot of quick, easy reads for the quarterback.
Scheme
They’re 55.7% run and it really doesn’t matter what personnel they have. It’s a lot of spread out formations, which isn’t much different from what they’ve done for a long time.
They take a deep shot 1 out of every 5 passes and a big reason why they can be explosive is the frequency that they choose to attack down the field.
Notre Dame has to be aware of Uiagalelei as a runner, particularly on 3rd or 4th and short. They run zone read as well as designed runs specifically for him. He’s had double digit carries against every ACC team they faced.
Key Players
RB Will Shipley - 3.87 yards after contact per attempt is 5th in the country. He’s bigger and stronger this season.
QB DJ Uiagalelei - 40th in ESPN’s QBR. He was 95th last season.
WR Antonio Williams - He’s caught 85.3% of his targets.
LT Jordan McFadden - He’s been as good as advertised up front for the Tigers. McFadden has allowed only two pressures all season.
Key for Notre Dame
Make the quarterback beat you
I say the quarterback because the Irish will probably see both. Of course Notre Dame has to limit the big plays from Clemson in the passing game, but it’s their running game which can take over and they can’t let Shipley and Mafah run wild.
Defense
DC Wes Goodwin had big shoes to fill when Brent Venables left to become the head coach at Oklahoma, but the defense has continued to play at a high-level despite missing some key pieces.
They are 22nd in EPA per play, 13th in YPP vs Power 5 competition, 15th in points per drive, and 13th in DF+.
Expected Strengths
They are 23rd in EPA per rush and give up virtually no big plays in the running game. They have allowed zero rushes of over 30-yards and only six of 20-yards or more.
They are 32nd in stuff rate and are 7th in tackles for loss per game. They put teams behind the sticks frequently.
The Havoc rate hasn’t declined one bit under Goodwin. 22.7% is elite. It helps when you have an overwhelming amount of talent in the front seven.
The defensive line might not have a frontline star who is the equivalent of a Christian Wilkins or a Dexter Lawrence, but they have a number of players who can take over a series or a game. DE KJ Henry is finally playing up to his 5-star pedigree and DE Myles Murphy is very likely going to be a first round pick after this season. DT Tyler Davis is extremely disruptive from the interior as well.
Just about every D-linemen who is in the rotation for them is going to play in the NFL. They haven’t got the best of Bresee or Thomas this year either and they are as talented as anyone on the team.
The linebackers are the most athletic group they’ve had in some time. Trenton Simpson leads the team in tackles and is good in just about every area. Jeremiah Trotter is a thumper and Barrett Carter is a havoc play waiting to happen as a nickel linebacker.
They are fast and it’s the second best defense the Irish have faced this season after Ohio State.
Potential Weaknesses
Here’s where it gets a bit more interesting. They are 107th in opportunity rate, which is the rate of runs of four yards or more when four yards is available. Teams don’t really test them on the ground because they generate so many negative plays and the defensive line can be scary, but we know that Notre Dame will have to at least try and test them.
The reason why that opp rate number sticks out is that it is way off from what was the normal standard under Venables. Teams had pretty much zero success running against them. They have always been in top-25 in opp rate since 2014 with this year being a big exception.
FSU rushed for 227 and 7.1 YPC when taking out sacks. Syracuse also averaged 6.5 YPC without sacks against them. They have been out leveraged in the run game at times and how Notre Dame approaches it with their offense, they should be able to check into some of those situations.
Clemson is clearly going to load up to stop the run, but there is at least some evidence that suggests that the Irish could have more success running than anyone would expect. They’ve had some issues in the secondary.
They are 106th in passes of 20-yards or more against and they don’t have a corner who is playing at an all-conference level.
PFF has S Tyler Venables a 40.1 coverage grade and that’s a player that Notre Dame may be able to attack in coverage.
Scheme
They play way more zone than man on the back end, but that might change this week if they dedicate more bodies in the box when the Irish play heavy.
They’ve been super aggressive in some games when it comes to the blitz (Wake Forest, Boston College) and were more aggressive early in the year.
They’ve backed off of that a bit with the front four getting healthier and it’s pretty much a certainty that we’ll see drop eight on 3rd down from them because of Drew Pyne’s lack of success against it.
Key Players
DE Myles Murphy - Leads the team in sacks and tackles for loss.
DT Tyler Davis - Strong hands at the point of attack and equally good against the run or pass.
LB Barrett Carter - 10 havoc plays in seven games. He might be the best defender in the ACC this season.
DE KJ Henry - Coming off of a dominant game against Syracuse, he’s seventh in the country in pressures as an edge defender.
Key for Notre Dame
Hit your shots when you have a chance
Notre Dame has zero chance of putting up points if they try to make Pyne sling it around a lot more than we’ve seen. He can’t be looking for the home run ball all of the time either. In saying that, when they have it set up, they need Pyne to deliver.
They can’t have the misses he had against Stanford and UNLV and hope to come out on top of this one. It’s going to be tough to grind out drives, so explosive plays are going to matter.
Special Teams
K BT Potter is 15 of 17 on the season. He’s been about as consistent as any college team could hope for.
P Aidan Swanson averages 41.34 yards per punt and he’s likely having night sweats thinking about getting his punts off against the Irish.
KR Will Shipley had a 69-yard return against FSU that helped swing that game. Notre Dame needs to kick it out of the end zone every time.
They’ve blocked four kicks this season, but that includes field goals.
Overview
Clemson is ranked 4th in the initial CFP rankings, but this isn’t a typical CFP squad by their usual standards. They aren’t as good at quarterback and they aren’t as dominant on defense.
On the other hand, this Notre Dame team isn’t as good as the ones that have faced Clemson in 2018 and 2020.
Dabo’s team is beatable. The Irish could be the one to take them down if Notre Dame finds more explosive plays mixed in with the other things they do well.
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