Scouting Report | Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois has plenty of experience playing power conference opponents. They’ve faced at least two in every full season since 2017. Though they are 3-11 in those matchups, two of those wins have come in the last three seasons under head coach Thomas Hammock.
They upset Georgia Tech in 2021 and Boston College last season. Neither of those teams were good (not ranked in the top-80 in F+ rankings those seasons), but they still had a lot more raw talent on their roster than NIU and managed to lose those games.
Hammock has had up and down results during his tenure with a 24-33 overall record. The highlight was 9-3 in 2021, but that was followed up by 3-9. Last season they went 7-6, but anyone thinking they are a middle of the pack in the MAC would be wrong. They won six of their last eight games and seven of nine if we’re counting the beginning of this season.
While they are 47th in returning production and were projected 103rd in the preseason F+ rankings (combined FEI and SP+), it’s a team that is loaded with seniors and with 18 starters returning. Hammock called this his best football team he’s had and they should be considered strong contenders to win their conference.
They got things started off right in an opening week blowout of FCS Western Illinois by winning 54-15 in which their offense averaged 10.1 yards per play. However, there isn’t too much that can be taken from that game when considering how truly outmatched Western Illinois was.
They are 281st in Bill Connelly’s all divisions SP+ rankings. That’s over 200 spots below North Dakota State, who just lost a close game to Colorado to open the season.
One thing we can be certain of is that they will try to match Notre Dame with their physical play. That’s who they’ve been under Hammock. That might not exactly be the best recipe against Marcus Freeman’s program, which has been as physical as any team in the last two seasons, but NIU won’t back down from the challenge.
Offense
NIU started out 1-3 last season and the offense wasn’t performing well. Hammock made the decision to promote running backs coach Wesley Beschorner as the primary play-caller at that time. Under Beschorner, they improved from 4.1 yards per play to 6.6 in their final nine games.
They are a huddle team who doesn’t typically push the tempo and plays with multiple tight ends with a variety of formations frequently. It’s a large menu that Notre Dame will have to prepare for and they looked a lot different in week one as well.
Almost ⅔ of their dropbacks involved play-action and they had only been over 40% twice since Beschorner took over as a play-caller.
They are projected 111th in OF+ to start the season.
Expected Strengths
They have a legitimate NFL prospect in the backfield in Antario Brown and the running game is their bread and butter. They finished 21st in EPA per rush last season and they return 114 starts on the offensive line. Four of the five starters are in their 5th or 6th year.
They also have big play potential in the passing game and have proven production returning at receiver and tight end.
Potential Weaknesses
Heading into the season it was thought that NIU had serious questions about their quarterback, but then Ethan Hampton went off in week one. They have clearly found their guy.
That first game was like a glorified practice, though. Things are going to get a heck of a lot tighter with coverage and he’ll be pressured much more frequently than the 10% of dropbacks he was against Western Illinois. This is also on the road and he’s not a dual-threat.
Good luck to this young man.
This was before the change in play-callers last season, but NIU had only 149 yards against Nebraska. It’s relevant because that’s how they performed against a top-10 defense. The Cornhuskers were 8th in DF+ It’s a lot more difficult to play the same kind of physical style running the football against power conference teams.
The skill talent hasn’t proven they can beat the type of athletes Notre Dame has in the secondary and Notre Dame will be the fastest defense they play all season.
Against Power 5 opponents the last three years, they’ve averaged three explosive plays on offense per game. They’ll probably need more than that against the Irish if they want to keep it close.
Personnel notes
#2 QB Ethan Hampton
- 6-3 216
- prior to this season he had four career starts
- NIU was 0-4 in those games
- 9 TDs vs 8 INTs prior to 2024
- pocket guy, average arm talent but decent deep ball
- 1 TD, 3 INTs vs the blitz in ‘22
- career 72.4 NFL passer rating heading into the season
- diced up Western Illinois with career high 328 and 16.4 YPA
- not stiff, but not a dual-threat. Will get him out on boot action
- Only pressured on 10% of dropbacks in week 1
- heavy play-action numbers, 65% of throws in week 1
- 4 of 5 TDs on PA passes
#14 QB Jalen Macon
- 6-5 230
- Arkansas Pine-Bluff transfer
- dual-threat
- sacked 16 times in six games, fumbled 5 times
- injury knocked him out after six games
- only 6.9 YPA in ‘23
- brutal vs the blitz, 3.0 YPA 42.9%
- frequent scrambler who gets out when first read isn’t there
- most of his yards came on scrambles, 8.2 YPC and can run through tackles
- 15 missed tackles forced on 26 carries in ‘23
- came in during blowout of W Illinois ran five times
- scrambled for a touchdown
#15 QB Josh Holst
- 6-4 192
- scout team last season as a RS
- considered a dual-threat
- four sport athlete in high school
- 11.41 100m in HS
#1 RB Antario Brown
- 5-10 219
- 1st team All-MAC in ‘23
- 1,296, 6.1 YPC, 10 TDs
- 8.4 YPC vs MAC opponents
- only 2.9 YPC vs two Power 5 teams
- slippery runner
- 280 and 4 TDs vs Akron
- 8 100-yard games in his career
- over 6.0 YPC in every season
- only NIU player on Senior Bowl watch list
- 11.03 and 10.9 100m in high school
- wasn’t used as a receiving threat. 12 catches and check downs
- explosive ability, 4 runs of 60+
- 3rd in the nation in yards before contact
- 14 runs of 15+ yards -
only 52 yards receiving in ‘23, 45 in the opener
- will line him up in Wildcat
- only gave him 8 carries in the opener, 4 went for 10+
#21 RB Gavin Williams
- 5-11 209
- started his career at Iowa
- 488, 5.1 YPC
- 24 catches for 147
- 15 for 61 in upset over BC in ‘23
- 305, 4.7 YPC at Iowa in ‘21
- 16 for 98 vs Kentucky in the bowl game in ‘21
- 10.86 100m in HS, 22.09 200m
#5 RB Justin Lynch
- 6-1 220
- started his career at Temple
- former QB, moved to RB in ‘23
- younger brother of former NIU start Jordan Lynch
- threw a TD pass vs BC, alert when he’s in the game
- RS last season, but had 8 for 84 vs Tulsa
- 31-yard run vs W Illinois
#28 RB Jaylen Poe
- 5-10 207
- redshirted in ‘23
- appeared in one game, 6 for 44 vs W Michigan
- ran hard through contact vs W Illinois
#3 WR Trayvon Rudolph
- 5-10 187
- 51 catches for 531 in ‘23
- 8 for 170 vs C Michigan
- 8.3 YPC on 22 carries
- three carries of 30+ yards
- watch for him as Wildcat, jet action, and reverses
- great speed, 17.5 and 16.6 per catch in ‘20 and ‘21
- missed the 2022 season after an injury in camp
- three 70+ yard receptions in career
- went off with 14 for 309 vs Kent St in ‘21
- HS QB, threw and completed a pass last season
- 6.58 60m in HS
- out wide on ⅔ of pass snaps in ‘23
- was in the slot about ⅔ of the time during big ‘21 season
- got some wiggle after the catch
- not great in contested catch situations, 38.9% in last two seasons
- connected on only 2 of 14 deep targets in ‘23, it was 12 of 22 in ‘21
- 2 for 67 rushing vs W Illinois on speed sweeps including 60 yards house call
- 4 for 107 receiving, 47 yard TD
#12 WR Kenji Lewis
- 6-1 200
- Arkansas Pine-Bluff transfer
- led APB in receiving, 33 for 401
- YAC ability, 12 missed tackles forced
- played QB and WR in HS
- ran for 1,800 and over 9.0 YPC in senior year
- was out with an injury in the opener, not listed on the depth chart this week
- status uncertain
#19 Andrew McElroy
- 6-3 192
- St. Thomas transfer (FCS)
- led ST in receiving with 39 for 525
- 45 for 717 in ‘22, 7 TDS
- 95-yard KR TD in ‘22
- preseason All-American in ‘23
- 10 of 14 on contested catches last season
- did have 8 drops
- starter, but only 1 target in week 1
#10 WR Kyle Thomas
- 6-2 174
- redshirt in ‘23
- 45-yard catch vs Kent St
- HS QB, rushed for over 1,000 yards as a junior
#16 WR Jalen Johnson
- 6-3 205
- 17 for 151 in ‘23
- 10.75 100m, 22.10 200m in HS
- all-state in hurdles, 14.33 110H and 38.87 300H
- ADOT was 12.4 yards, targeted deep
#23 WR Dane Partridge
- 5-11 175
- 11 for 161 in ‘23
- 11.23 100m in HS
- returned 8 punts in ‘23, including TD vs W Michigan
- speed sweep for 15 in the opener, 23 yard receiving TD
- primarily in the slot
#7 WR Keyshaun Pipkin
- 6-2 202
- 5 games last season, only 2 targets
- generated some positive buzz this spring
- caught a TD vs W Illinois, got some wiggle
#81 TE Grayson Barnes
- 6-5 225
- previously JC All-American at American River CC
- 23 for 422 in ‘23, 18.4 per catch
- move TE, more of a big WR
- aligned in the slot on over 50% of snaps last season
- seven receptions of 20+ yards last season
- long strider with good speed
- 58-yard TD vs Ohio
- 5 for 105 in bowl game vs Arkansas St
- only 35.5% in-line in ‘23
- 8.5 YAC per reception, not a tackle breaker but can do damage with space
- 13.9 ADOT, they target him down the seam
- 65% of his targets were intermediate or deep
- had a 60 yard TD off a play they schemed up vs W Illinois
- only 27.7% in the slot in first game
#11 TE Chris Carter
- 6-7 240
- started his career at Howard
- 12 for 178 in ‘23
#80 TE Jake Appleget
- 6-4 245
- Nebraska transfer
- no production at Nebraska, primarily a blocker
- only two snaps in ‘23
- 35 snaps in week 1
#82 TE Tristan Tewes
- 6-3 251
- graduate senior
- 11.8 100m in HS -
6-7 high jump, 21-8 long jump in HS is elite for TE
- only a couple of snaps in the backfield
- 82.7% of his snaps as a blocker
#49 FB Brock Lampe
- 6-1 252
- 13 carries
- 10 on 3rd and short, converted 8 for 1st downs
- 27.2% of snaps in the backfield
- 76% of snaps as a blocker
- converted on short yardage vs W Illinois on FB Dive
#83 TE Jason Fowler
- 6-5 240
- true freshman
- versatility to line up in the backfield or in-line
#60 RT Evan Buss
- 6-6 312
- 12 career starts
- was a four-game RS last season, started three
- missed eight games due to injury
- Athlon 2nd team All-MAC in preseason
- played LT in ‘22
#54 LT Evan Malcore
- 6-6 298
- 7 career starts came in last 8 games of ‘23
- 573 snap
- gave up multiple pressures in three games
#71 OT Drew Hoth
- 6-4 318
- started four of eight games in ‘23
- 219 snaps
- used as a TE on 15 snaps in the bowl game
#77 OT Izuchukwu Ozoh
- 6-4 263
- moved to OT from TE after spring ball
- primarily a blocking TE, 90% of snaps
#79 LG JJ Lippe
- 6-5 311
- 34 career starts, over 2,000 snaps
- started all 13 last season
- 2nd team All-MAC in preseason
- allowed 5 pressures vs Nebraska
- has taken snaps at every OL position in his career
- target him with stunts on pass downs
#76 RG John Champe
- 6-4 321
- 28 career starts, over 2,000 snaps
- 2nd team All-MAC in preseason
- never missed a game in his career
- solid in pass pro
#65 C Logan Zchernitz
- 6-3 305
- 33 career starts, almost 2,500 snaps
- played in final 5 games in ‘23 after returning from injury
- primarily played right guard
- started training to play center during bowl prep, originally played practiced there as FR
- played well at C in the bowl game
- 2nd team All-MAC in ‘22 at guard
Key for Notre Dame
Early down success
If the Irish are winning on first down and forcing NIU into obvious passing situations, it’s going to be nearly impossible for NIU to move the football.
Defense
Defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto has spent the last wo seasons at NIU. Previously he the DC at Samford. His defense had made a massive jump all the way from 126th in DF+ to 66th last season. They went from 98th to 25th in yards per play.
The defense was why Hammock’s program had struggled early on. They were 100th or lower in DF+ from 2019-2022. They are bringing a lot of players back who contributed to the success of last season and are 22nd in returning production.
Though they are projected 85th in DF+, I would consider them to be much better than that.
Expected Strengths
The pass defense was very good in ‘23 and they have an experienced secondary returning. They were 13th in EPA per dropback, 10th in passing success rate, and only three teams threw for over 200 yards on them.
They simply didn’t get beat over the top very often and were 9th in the country in explosive pass plays against them.
Potential Weaknesses
They play coverage and aren’t aggressive in bringing additional rushers, which is one of the reasons why they finished 123rd in havoc rate.
The run defense is questionable as well. Nebraska ran for 224 and 5.1 YPC against them and that Nebraska running game wasn’t good (93rd in EPA per rush). Boston College ran for 5.21 YPC, Toledo ran for 261 and 6.1 YPC. Central Michigan ran for 331 and 7.0 YPC.
They were only 91st in PFF’s pass rush grades, which goes hand in hand with being 88th in 3rd down defense. It was a bend, but don’t break defense for the most part.
Personnel notes
#4 Edge Rashein Thomas
- 6-4 262
- multi-year starter
- led NIU in tackles and TFLs
- 74 tackles, 8.5 havoc plays
- 18.9% win rate versus true pass sets
- their best all-round player up front
- 5 pressures vs Boston College in ‘23
- missed week 1 with an injury, not listed on the depth chart this week
- status is uncertain
#97 Edge Roy Williams Jr.
- 6-6 251
- started the first 5 games in ‘23 before losing starting spot
- 5.5 TFLs
- plus pass rush ability, 23.1% win rate vs true pass sets
- below average player vs the run
- recorded the only sack vs W Illinois
- runs the hoop well
#11 Edge Jalonnie Williams
- 6-4 286
- listed as starter with Thomas out -
19 snaps vs W Illinois
- just a guy
#99 Edge Pierce Oppong
- 6-3 255
- rotation player
- only appeared in one game last season
- two pressures in week 1
#52 Edge Ivan Davis
- 6-3 254
- primarily used a pass rusher, played in 3rd down packages in ‘22
- good motor, got some twitch
#28 Edge Nevaeh Sanders
- 6-4 220
- started at Iowa Western CC
- twitchy athlete, pass rush specialist
- 30.8% win rate vs true pass sets in ‘23
- three pressures in week 1
- 11.3 100m in HS is elite for edge prospect
#8 DT Devin O’Malley
- preseason 1st team All-MAC
- versatility to play multiple alignments
- 5 sacks in ‘23
- 0 pressures in 3 of 4 games vs Power 5 comp in the last two seasons
#0 DT Skyler Gill-Howard
- 6-1 285
- Started his career at Upper Iowa
- 4 TFLs
- two-time state runner-up wrestler -
active rusher, good leverage
#51 DT Cade Haberman
- 6-2 300
- HS wrestler, state runner-up
- serviceable at the point of attack, doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher
#10 DT Demond Taylor
- 6-2 308
- 6th year senior
- started 10 games in 2021
- only 2 pressures all of last season
- rotation player, can give decent snaps on early downs
#44 LB Christian Fuhrman
- 6-1 235
- Southeast Missouri State graduate transfer
- started out in Garden City CC
- 3rd leading tackler at SMSU in ‘23, 65 tackles
- two missed tackles against W Illinois, average athlete
#26 LB Jaden Dolphin
- 6-2 220
- 13 career starts
- preseason 2nd team All-MAC
- former walk-on
- previously a nickel backer
- pick-six vs E Michigan in ‘21
- Benched late last season for poor play
- graded out as the 3rd worst MAC LB according to PFF (250+ snaps)
#25 LB Jake Gassaway
- 6-0 225
- 11.08 100m in HS
- 7 snaps in first season
- 23 snaps in week 1, popped for me when watching
#32 LB Quinn Urwiler
- 6-0 226
- started out at North Dakota
- only 15 career snaps at NIU
- primarily ST player
#9 S Nate Valcarel
- 6-1 192
- Started his career at South Dakota
- 3 interceptions in ‘23
- 5.5 havoc plays
- scoop and score vs Toledo on 50-yard TD
- 11.69 100m in HS
#15 S Santana Banner
- 6-3 202
- 1st career start vs W Illinois, RS frosh
- wasn’t targeted in coverage, 1 missed tackle
#7 S Jordan Hansen
- 6-1 192
- minimal ball production, only 2 passes defended in 2 seasons
- 8 PBUs, no INTs in 39 games
- limited athlete in coverage
- previous starter at safety moved to backup nickel
#6 S Muhammed Jammeh
- 6-1 196
- returned a fumble 54-yards to the house in the spring game
- 2 career INTs
- former walk-on
- third safety
#22 S Cyrus McGarrell
-6-2 197
- over 400 career snaps
- two INTs in ‘23
- flashes as a blitzer
- named most improved player in the spring
- six return TDs in high school
- ran 4 X 100 in HS
#2 CB Jahvaughn Byrd
- 6-0 191
- preseason 1st team All-MAC
- 3 interceptions
- led team with 11 total havoc plays
- over 1,800 career snaps
- solid tackler, plays the run well
- gave up 5 for 155 vs Kent St in ‘23
#5 CB Amariyn Knighten
- 6-0 174
- 5 starts in ‘23
- thin, not a strong tackler
- allowed only one explosive play against in coverage in ‘23
#12 CB Cam’Ron Dabney
- 5-11 186
- started his career at Kansas
- fourth corner
#1 Nickel Jashon Prophete
- 5-11 187
- given the #1 jersey, a significant deal at NIU
- pick-six in the spring game
- nine havoc plays in ‘23
- blitzed infrequently
- sound player, 17 stops
#3 CB Jacob Finley
- 5-11 176
- eight starts last season
- five havoc plays
- got some edge to him as a tackler despite the size
- played at Hoover (Alabama)
Key for Notre Dame
Keep running
I know Mike Denbrock will want to get the passing game going more this week, but they put numbers in coverage to win, which means there will be number advantages at times at the line of scrimmage. That and the questionable talent at linebacker means they should lean on their talented backs and run the football.
Special Teams
They are projected 116th in SF+ and haven’t had a blocked kick since the 2021.
ST Notes
P Tom Foley
- 6-4 234
- transfer from Minnesota
- 40.6 per punt in ‘23
- only punt in the first game for 32 yards
K Kanon Woodill
- 5-11 167
-11 of 17 last season
- only 2 of 5 beyond 40 yards
- long of 49
- missed two extra points in the first game of the season
- had one blocked and returned for a two-point conversion
KO Austin Bullock
- nine kickoffs in week 1, 0 touchbacks
- They ran a fake field goal in the bowl game with Foley as the holder flipping it to Woodill for a 32-yard touchdown.
- Trayvon Rudolph averaged 20.0 yards per kickoff last season, but had a 100-yard TD vs Bowling Green in 2021.
- Dane Pardridge is the punt returner and scored on a 55-yard TD vs Western Michigan last season.
- Andrew McElroy returned kicks and punts at ST. Thomas had a 95-yard TD in 2022.
- LB Christian Fuhrman blocked a punt in 2022 against Nicholls State.
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