6 Thoughts on a Thursday

There were only a few games this season that were circled on that calendar for Notre Dame fans. Louisville was one of them and not because it’s going to be on Peacock.

It’s a revenge game after a humbling result on the road last season. It’s the first big home game of 2024 for the Irish. It might be the only big home game for the Irish this fall.

It’s redundant to say this is a must-win game since they are all must-win games from here on out for this team. Every game is important for Marcus Freeman and the coaching staff with how they’re evaluated. They might be playing tougher competition, but the one two weeks from now is just as big as this one.

There is something about performing well in these types of games when they are at home that does make it different, though. There is unrest with the fan base after an unexpected early season loss. If Notre Dame’s head coach or starting quarterback happens to be trending on X (should have kept it Twitter), it’s not for anything positive at the moment.

This is a game that many people picked out as the one they wanted to attend this season. Heck, the Hit & Hustle boys both did as well. We’ll be in the pressbox this weekend.

There’s a lot of things that would signal this being a great atmosphere in Notre Dame Stadium, but Notre Dame crowds aren’t exactly known for being all-in regardless of how they feel going in. I expect many fans will be nervous and unsure of what to expect, which is why some good vibes in the first half could go a long way into turning skeptics back into believers (even if it’s only temporary for many).

The vibes heading into this game are very similar to Clemson in 2022 and USC in 2023. I’d say there was more pessimism about the Irish winning those games than this one, but there will be nervous energy from the fans that matches those games. No one predicted correctly, other than JOHN BRICE, how those games would turn out for Notre Dame, but when the clock ran out in both, the vibes were closer to running through a wall as opposed to any kind of nervous environment.

Freeman’s teams came out and stomped Dabo Swinney’s and Lincoln Riley’s teams. Those victories were definitive and rival any home wins of the Brian Kelly era in terms of energy. The win against USC and future number one pick Caleb Williams was an extra sweet bit of revenge after he basically secured his Heisman trophy against Notre Dame the previous season while putting together a highlight reel of big plays.

Louisville won 10 games last season and made it to the ACC Championship game. They were a good team with a lot of talent. That didn’t make that loss any less embarrassing at the time, especially after Louisville laid an egg against a Pitt team that Notre Dame would eventually blowout later in the season.

Winning the game would be great for Freeman and the Irish. Making this game the ‘24 version of Clemson and USC would be the perfect remedy for the anxiety of the fan base.

2. There is something different about these games against the best competition on the schedule. No one who has played or coached football at any kind of competitive level could dispute that.

There are more hours of preparation from the coaching and scouting staff. There’s a reason why the defensive line rotation gets a little smaller and why there may be something a little extra on the call sheet that week.

These games are also where you’re looking for that extra from your top guys. The opposition is going to try to limit them while you’re trying to feature them as much as possible.

This leads me to pointing out this quote from Mike Denbrock and the amount of touches the running backs are getting. Here’s what he said on Tuesday:

“I don't think the narrative is fair to say the running backs aren't getting enough touches, because if you watch our running game and how it's constructed, it's built off of a lot of reading the edge. And so, the defense is really going to dictate a lot more about who gets the ball and who gets the carry than I do.

“I'm not necessarily saying we don't want Jeremiyah carrying the ball and we don't want Jadarian — of course we do. Those guys are dynamic, and we want the ball in their hands. But if the defense reacts a certain way, we're going to take advantage of that as well because of the type of quarterback that we're playing with. So, I hope that we can keep the ball in all three of those guys' hands as much as we possibly can, because every time they touch it something good seems to happen.”

I am definitely one of the people who pushed the narrative that the running backs need more touches. (It’s me, hi. I’m the problem, it’s me.)

It was far more of a talking point after week two than it is now because what he said about the quarterback is 100% correct. When Riley Leonard is gashing defenses as a runner like he has the last two weeks specifically, it’s often a very good decision for him to keep the football.

Leonard as a runner is partly what I’m talking about. This is a game where they should have some more designed runs to break out for him.

I do feel that this is a game where Jeremiyah Love needs to be featured more, though. He’s currently averaging 12.75 touches per game, which is significantly less than what Kyren Williams averaged in 2021 (20.25) and Audric Estime last season (18.8). Love’s situation is different from those two because Notre Dame has Jadarian Price as his running mate and Leonard is a completely different running threat than Jack Coan or Sam Hartman.

I wouldn’t expect Love to get to that kind of usage overall on the season. But for one game against what could be the best defense the Irish play, it would be good to see him closer to Williams or Estime usage. I don’t think it was a coincidence that LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers had his most targets (16) in a single game against Alabama last fall. Denbrock gave Nabers a little extra in that game and Love, Mitchell Evans, and Beaux Collins should have a bit more on their plate against Louisville.

3. I think ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky summed up what challenges defenses the most in football today. Motion and play-action are essential to helping set up explosive plays.

Denbrock does use a lot of motion and used it more frequently than any coordinator in the SEC last season. There are a bunch of examples of him using motion in the Purdue game specifically that helped set up successful plays.

Play-action is a different story. As I wrote about earlier in the week, Notre Dame is near the bottom when it comes to percentage of play-action dropbacks.

The lack of a play-action passing game isn’t something I’m a fan of. The RPO game has been okay, but they have rarely run traditional play-action. The rate of play-action passes for Leonard this season is 9.3% for all of his dropbacks. That’s the second lowest play-action rate in the country.

At first I thought it might have been about a lack of trust in the protection that’s the cause of it, but on 11 play-action dropbacks, Leonard has only been pressured twice. Maybe Mike Denbrock hasn’t called it because of a lack of success (5 of 11 for 46 yards) or because they were still building up Leonard’s confidence to throw it deep down the field more often like he did in this game.

Whatever the reason for the extremely low rate, that number needs to go up at some point. Teams are going to sell out to stop the running game even more than they have already and Notre Dame needs to take advantage of it.

Leonard was plus 17.5% with his completion percentage on play-action passes last season at Duke.

What better time than this week for that percentage to increase. From my Louisville scouting report:

The safeties are also much better downhill run defenders than they are in coverage. They got sucked into bad plays on play-action against Georgia Tech. (Haynes) King was 7 of 10 on play-action and averaged 15.6 YPA.

Louisville’s first priority against Notre Dame should be stopping the run. That was their priority against Georgia Tech and was a catalyst in them getting burned on play-action passes. Notre Dame should run more play-action this week and every week. It just makes sense with how teams are going to be concerned about their running game to take advantage of that concern.

It’s also not a coincidence that Louisville is currently third in explosive plays from scrimmage per game and have the third highest play-action rate out of any FBS offense. It forces defenses to be very disciplined and most aren’t.

4. Notre Dame typically is, though. If they were blowing assignments frequently, quarterbacks wouldn’t struggle as much as they have against them.

Next up is Tyler Shough. He’s been terrific to start this season and comes into this game 15th in ESPN’s QBR. That adjusts for opponents as well. He definitely has not played good pass defenses this season (an FCS team plus two teams ranked 116th and below in EPA per dropback). Notre Dame’s defense is a different beast.

They have one of the top pass defenses in the country (second in EPA, third in PFF’s coverage grades) and the average yards per attempt of opposing quarterbacks when Al Golden blitzes them this season is 4.6. Take out what Miami (OH) QB coach Gus Ragland called “The luckiest play ever” against Northern Illinois and it shrinks down to 3.0 YPA.

I do wonder how Louisville coach Jeff Brohm will approach this game differently than he has the first three. Shough has been great throwing the deep ball and receivers Ja’corey Brooks and Chris Bell have already combined for 10 receptions of 20+ yards, but Brohm preaches throwing the football away often to his quarterbacks to avoid turnovers.

That was their approach last season and  it’s the same in this one. It’s a big reason why Louisville has not turned the ball over once in three games. However, Shough is more talented than their 2023 quarterback, Jack Plummer. He also has a chance to make a name for himself as an NFL prospect in what is considered a weak year at the quarterback position.

They aren’t walking out of Notre Dame stadium without throwing a handful of deep shots down the field. The matchup between Louisville’s receivers and Notre Dame’s secondary should be a great one. It’s a matchup that the Irish secondary have won against everyone so far this season.

5. It’s really difficult to say who the great quarterbacks in college football are this season. It’s still September and that plays a part in it. There were also six quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the most recent NFL Draft and there wasn’t a Caleb Williams/Drake Maye combination coming into this season.

Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Georgia’s Carson Beck are the only two players who have played well against a good defense. Most quarterbacks are going to be playing against their first good defense this week.

Georgia Tech’s Haynes King might be a top-10 quarterback in college football this season, but how many other seasons would he be in the top-10? Not many in recent memory that I can think of.

There’s still plenty of season left for some of these guys to prove how good they are, but it all lends to me thinking that this year is a bit more wide open than other seasons when it comes to real contenders. Texas and Georgia are obvious choices near the top. Everyone else still has a lot to prove.

6. Michigan just beat USC by throwing for only 32 yards. They also gave up 123 yards to USC’s backs at 7.7 yards per pop.

I saw those stats and couldn’t help but chuckle at that kind of thing causing a freakout if that was Notre Dame winning that way. That’s not that far off from how they have won this season (although with better run defense). At Michigan this win was celebrated as gritty and tough.

Michigan’s offense has to get better at throwing the football. They’d probably give anything to be as good as Notre Dame at throwing the football right now. Having a non-existent passing game isn’t a way to be successful in the modern game and I don’t see a way for them to win out against their schedule unless they drastically improve.

They also have a much tougher schedule than Notre Dame. After Louisville, the toughest team left on the schedule for Notre Dame looks like the team who Michigan only had 32 yards passing against.

This is going to be a tough game on Saturday. There could be more tough games ahead even if it doesn’t look like it on paper. We’ve seen Notre Dame making it tougher for themselves than it has to be already, so they can certainly do it again.

I don’t subscribe to the notion that there isn’t a path for Notre Dame to win every game they play the rest of this season, though. Even after some horrible injury luck, everything is still possible for them.

It starts with winning against Louisville. It’s a must-win until the next must-win in the game after this one. There will be a lot of pressure on them in these eight games. They showed me something in these last two weeks that they are capable of handling it and if they get to the point where they can start playing more free, then I think we’ll see an exciting stretch of ball from them over the next couple of months.

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