6 Thoughts on a Thursday

The NFL has made a day out of their annual schedule release. It’s very much a “Made for TV” event, like the weekly College Football Playoff rankings show, but it does the job of getting people hyped up months away from the season.

College football doesn’t have anything to hype up the schedule that’s similar. That’s mostly because games are scheduled (and sometimes canceled) years in advance. In 2021 it was announced that Alabama was going to move their already scheduled series with Notre Dame to…2029 and 2030.

“Get ready, folks! Eight years is just around the corner.”

That wasn’t a real quote from the press release because it would have been insane. So much can change during eight years and it’s already changed since then.

Brian Kelly is now the coach at LSU and he seems like a long shot to last there, though he’d still be on LSU’s payroll in 2029 if he isn’t. Nick Saban is now retired, but he might still be on campus for the game with ESPN’s College Gameday.

Notre Dame just announced a new series with Texas in 2028 and 2029, which means the Irish are scheduled to face Texas and Alabama in ‘29.

While that may sound brutal at the moment, the truth is that we have no idea what all of these programs will look like then. We often don’t have a good idea of what a team will look like a few months in advance.

No one thought Florida State was going to be one of the worst teams in the country this season after going 13-1 last year, but a game that looked like it would be one of the most difficult for Notre Dame ended up being a beatdown of a one-win team.

That’s how it turns out sometimes. No team has control of how good their schedule can be in a given year. No one could have predicted that FSU would be trash and that potentially beating an undefeated Army this weekend could be very important for Notre Dame’s strength of schedule.

While it’s true that teams are going to be compared to one another based on who they do and don’t play, what can a team do if they were supposed to have tough matchups with Michigan and Washington this season? It’s not the fault of their opponents that coaching changes led to chaos with their rosters and disappointing seasons.

It has hurt Indiana, who beat both programs, because those teams aren’t what they were supposed to be this season. And unfortunately there is nothing Indiana can do about that.

All the Hoosiers have done is play at a high level and dominated most of their schedule. That’s why they are fourth in the country in net points per drive (2.22) behind only Army, Ohio State, and Texas. And if Indiana beats Ohio State this weekend, they’ll prove they are worthy of being in the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame can prove the same if they beat Army and USC. The Irish are the only CFP contender with two teams left on their schedule that are ranked in the top-30 of F+ (combined FEI and SP+ rankings).

You might be able to guess who is right behind Indiana at fifth in net points per drive this season. It’s the Irish (2.21). People can bang on Notre Dame for their schedule. They can’t say they haven’t played really well against that schedule since their loss to Northern Illinois.

Who you play matters. It should matter. How you play also matters and through 10 games this season, Notre Dame and Indiana have been winning decisively.

2. Kirby Smart had a lot to say about the CFP committed after they beat Tennessee last Saturday. He could talk then because of how they won that game against a good opponent. He wasn’t talking before they won that game because they just got whooped the week before by Ole Miss.

Lane Kiffin’s squad is also a good team and Smart wanted to point out that losing to a team like that on the road should be factored into the decisions the committee makes. He’s not completely wrong, but his argument would be a lot more effective if Georgia was playing a lot better than they have been.

They beat the heck out of Clemson to open the season, but barely scraped by Kentucky by one point a couple of weeks later. They almost got run out of the stadium against Alabama before they came back and made it a game. They played a way closer than it should have been against a then 1-5, now 2-8 Mississippi State team. They followed that up with a big win over Texas on the road, but then let Florida with a third team quarterback hang with them and were never even close to beating Ole Miss.

It’s been that kind of season for Georgia. They are talented and capable. They are also insanely inconsistent.

Their schedule isn’t easy. They also haven’t played well against that schedule and are nowhere near as dominant as they were the previous three seasons. Georgia is 23rd in net points per drive this season (0.82). From 2021 to 2023, they finished first (2.70), first (2.43), and third (2.40). I Googled it and found out they were also playing in the SEC during those seasons as well. They were just better.

The offensive line was better. The receivers were better. The quarterback was playing much better. Georgia is going to get into the CFP with two losses provided that they win both very winnable games to close out the regular season.

I’m sure Smart will keep complaining about their ranking and how tough their schedule is compared to other teams who aren’t in the SEC. He’d be better off not spending his time on that and figuring out why his team isn’t playing up to the standard they set for themselves.

3. Army hasn’t played a power conference team this season. The SEC schools are too busy scheduling Mercer, Furman, McNeese, Wofford, and Dongall (I made the last one up) to play them.

The game this weekend against Notre Dame is their chance to prove they can beat a higher caliber opponent because Army has played one of the most dreadfully bad schedules in the country. They haven’t played a single team ranked in the top-90 in F+.

It’s not their fault that the AAC fell apart as a conference, but it doesn’t change the fact that they have played some bad, bad football teams. (Yes, not just bad. Bad, bad.)

Army has dominated those teams like they should, though. They are first in net points (3.0). With yards per play on offense and defense against FBS opponents (minus garbage time), they are sixth on offense and eighth on defense. It’s hard for a team to perform better than they have.

I think there is a very good chance that Army could have a difficult time adjusting to playing Notre Dame because the level of athletes they’ll be playing against is significantly different than what they’ve played against all season. It’s not just blue-chip recruits and all of that. I went through Army’s nine opponents this season and those teams had a combined 10 players who were listed on the Senior Bowl watchlist. The Senior Bowl is the premiere postseason All-Star game for NFL prospects.

43% of all the players selected in the most recent NFL Draft participated in the Senior Bowl week of practices.

https://www.instagram.com/theseniorbowl/reel/C6WqUL_OS5w/

That’s a long way of saying that there were 10 total players who came into the season on the radar as NFL prospects from those nine programs. Notre Dame had 16 players make the watchlist. That doesn’t include the young players who are making an impact who aren’t draft-eligible either.

The teams Army has played have basically had one guy per team. Notre Dame has a whole bunch of “dudes”.

Army is second in the country in time of possession. They play at the slowest pace on offense of any team in the FBS. They will do their best to grind the clock and did so against North Texas last week.

North Texas only had six possessions the entire game. Notre Dame had 10 in the first half against Virginia. The offense won’t be able to go cold for as long a stretch as it did in that game or else they could be in a bad spot against Army.

Army just might be in a bad spot against Notre Dame simply because they are playing Notre Dame, though. The leap up in competition for them is going to be significant.

4. One thing that has been a constant since Marcus Freeman took over the program is how physical Notre Dame is on both sides of the football. Anyone who watches them every week should see it. They beat teams up.

That’s why I don’t think this is a coincidence that teams have had a tough time right after playing Notre Dame this season. As Tim Murray noted, prompted by Tyler Wojciak of Locked on Irish, teams are 0-8 against the spread and 2-6 straight up in the weeks after playing Notre Dame.

This team plays with a violent mentality, which is why it’s unsurprising to see more injured players from the opposing team limping off the field each week.

Playing physical against Army’s offense is going to be critically important. Part of that is because they really get after it blocking in the run game and if a defense doesn’t match or beat their physicality, then it’s going to be a long day.

The other part is that Army relies so heavily on their quarterback in the run game. As Al Golden mentioned in his media availability this week, Army doesn’t just run triple option. They run a lot of single wing inspired designed runs for the quarterback.

Bryson Daily is a 220 pound workhorse who ran the ball 36 times against North Texas. If he runs the ball 30+ times against Notre Dame, he is going to feel it. And if he’s feeling it, then that’s when his decision-making can be impacted because he’s thinking about the punishment rather than the play.

Notre Dame’s defense needs to play with their regular level of physicality on Saturday night to wear down Daily.

5. Notre Dame has been searching for consistency at receiver. They’ve found production. Just not enough of it from the same people every week. The one guy who looks like he might be an exception to that is Jaden Greathouse.

While others have struggled with drops, he’s been reliable. He’s put up numbers since the Louisville game, even after missing most of the Virginia game with a banged up shoulder (it looked like he would have been able to return and was not listed on the injury report).

Beaux Collins leads the team in catches, yards, and targets this season, but he has less catches (14) and yards (214) on 12 more targets than Greathouse since that Louisville game. Only six of those 14 catches have gone for 1st downs compared to 10 on 15 catches for Greathouse.

It would be great for the offense if Collins was playing like he was in the first ⅓ of the season, but as Riley Leonard has shown growth in the offense and in the passing game, Collins’ production has dipped. Leonard’s passer rating has been 83 points higher targeting Greathouse than it has been targeting Collins in the last six games.

Notre Dame could use a lot of things if they want to be better on offense and Jordan Faison catching the football more consistently is on that list as well as having Collins’ season turn around. They may have found what they are looking for in Greathouse, though. He’s been terrific and if that shoulder is doing well, then the coaching staff should look for more ways to get him the football.

6. Maybe people didn’t think it was going to happen against a 3-6 Kansas team, but BYU seemed poised to lose a game after they should have lost to Utah the week before. They went down after flirting with losing for a while, much like Miami did before they lost to Georgia Tech.

I wouldn’t say that there are others in the CFP mix who appear primed to be upset in the next two weeks, but there’s bound to be some sort of chaos that will happen. Alabama should presumably take care of business at Oklahoma and then they play Auburn, but anything can happen in the Iron Bowl.

Georgia should beat the snot out of Georgia Tech at home, but we don’t know if mediocre Georgia is going to show up. All of a sudden Florida is a lot more feisty with DJ Lagway at quarterback, so maybe a trip to the Swamp for Ole Miss won’t be so easy. Then there’s the Egg Bowl.

Tennessee has to play at Vandy, where Alabama lost and Texas almost did. Ohio State is facing Indiana and then Michigan. Ryan Day always seems to make it interesting in a bad way, so we’ll see how that goes.

Texas hasn’t got the wins that match up with others in the SEC. They are getting the benefit of the doubt because they only have one loss. What happens if it’s two after they travel to Texas A&M? If Mike Elko’s team wins that game, they’re pretty much in the CFP.

Penn State is a team that everyone loves to hate and that ranking looks good for them right now, but they have to play in Minnesota against a defense that’s ranked 13th in DF+.

It’s not all going to be chalk the rest of the way for all of these teams, which is why worrying about the rankings today will seem stupid if any of them lose. Even for the teams who won’t lose, they just need to take care of their business and the losing by others will take care of itself.

A CFP home game would be a big deal for Notre Dame. A matchup against a team that never has to travel up north to play at this time of year could be incredibly intriguing. If fans can’t talk about that kind of stuff, then what’s the fun in being a fan at all?

Hypotheticals are great to think about, but arguing about seeding and schedules is already making me tired with a few weeks to go. There won’t be a CFP at all for Notre Dame if they don’t beat Army this weekend. Keep winning and let the chaos commence everywhere else. It’s easier said than done, but it’s all that matters right now.

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