Does Notre Dame Have the Talent to Contend?
For the third time since Brian Kelly took over the Notre Dame football program, the Irish had multiple first round picks in the same year. It happened in 2012 with Harrison Smith and Michael Floyd. Then again in 2016 with Ronnie Stanley and Will Fuller. This past Thursday they had two go in the top-10 picks when Quenton Nelson was taken sixth and Mike McGlinchey was taken ninth.
Before 2012, you’d have to go all the way back to 1994 to find a year with multiple first round picks. That year they had three (Bryant Young, Aaron Taylor, and Jeff Burris) and it was the year before when they had two in the top-10 (Rick Mirer and Jerome Bettis) and four total (also Tom Carter and Irv Smith).
Seven first round picks in two years shows the kind of talent that Lou Holtz had accumulated during the end of his peak at Notre Dame. They weren’t awarded a national championship in the years that preceded those two drafts, but their record of 21-2-1 is more than enough evidence that they were as good as anyone in college football at that time.
Acquiring and developing talent is at the highest level it has been at since that time. But it’s still a step down from then.
Seven in two years nearly matches the eight in eight years during Kelly’s entire time in South Bend. Seven in two years is the kind of level Alabama or Ohio State is at currently. Eight in eight years fits more with the three seasons of 10 wins or more rather than losing two games in two years.
That level of talent is Playoff level. Alabama had four players go in the first round this year and twelve get drafted overall. They only had one in the first the year before, but five went in the second round. They are in the Playoff every year for a reason and it’s not an SEC conspiracy.
Georgia made it for the first time this past season. They had three first round picks on their roster. Clemson has been a regular in the Playoff, but didn’t have any first round picks this year. That’s mostly because they had players stay in school that could have been selected and likely will be next year. They also had nine players from their defense get drafted over the previous two drafts in addition to having first rounder Deshaun Watson at quarterback.
It’s not a fluke that the teams with the most NFL-level talent end up in the Playoff. Ohio State (two out of four years in the Playoff) has had seven first round picks play for their defense over the last four seasons. Florida State had eleven players on their 2014 team get selected the next spring, including the number one pick at quarterback and another first rounder. Jalen Ramsey, a top pick the following year, could be included as well.
Even Oregon (2014) had two eventual top-10 picks on their defensive line and the second overall pick at quarterback. Washington had nine guys in the last two drafts, two in the first round, that were a huge part of them making the Playoff in 2016. Four others went in the second round.
It’s pretty clear that unless you play against the least talented Power 5 conference with a first round quarterback (Oklahoma) or you’re Michigan State (and get crushed by Alabama), then having several top NFL prospects on your roster is important when it comes to competing for a national championship.
That leads into whether or not Notre Dame has that level of talent on their roster this year. Examining the roster today, the answer would have to be...no.
There isn’t a projected first round pick on the roster. There may not even be a definitive day two (second and third round) pick. Six months from now, it could be different. But right now, a lot depends on how several individuals develop over the course of the upcoming season.
There are a handful of draft-eligible players for the Irish that have shown the potential to ascend to an All-American level of play. If those guys do that, while also addressing some of their perceived deficiencies, then they can put themselves into the conversation as top NFL prospects. And if enough of them do so, Notre Dame will have a chance to get into the Playoff and national championship conversation.
Taking the testing part out of the equation (because it would be impossible to predict numbers for them at this point), this is what those players have to show on the field this season to help themselves and the team achieve what they all hope to.
Te’Von Coney
After the bye week last fall, Coney went from 1B at Buck to arguably the best defensive player on the team. He averaged double digit tackles per game starting with the USC game. Ten of those were for loss. He was an elite run defender.
In addition to keeping up that level of play with his switch to Mike linebacker, he has to show he is a three-down player and excel in coverage. He’ll get to stay on the field in obvious pass situations this season and he needs to take advantage of it.
Jerry Tillery
Like Coney, Tillery decided to stay in school for his senior season rather than enter the draft. He had a great year at nose guard and now will be moving to what should be his future spot in the NFL, three technique.
He’ll get many more opportunities to be single blocked versus the run and the pass. That should lead to greater production. His consistency improved leaps and bounds from where it was in his first two years on campus. If he takes that next step with his play, he has the size and athleticism at the position to make him an intriguing interior prospect.
Next year’s draft is expected to be loaded on the defensive line so he’ll need to make a splash to stand out.
Drue Tranquill
What Tranquill does on the field may not matter as much as his medical when it comes time during the evaluation process because of his injury history. But under the assumption that it will be all good, it would be surprising if he didn’t make a ton of plays at Buck after his breakthrough at Rover and his stellar spring.
Can it get to the same realm that Coney was in at Buck with some extra coverage responsibilities included? If it does, then Tranquill could be a day two prospect.
Julian Love
Love was outstanding for most of the season with tremendous statistics in terms of pass breakups and interceptions. Tackling has always been a strength of his game as well. If he gets better this year, he will put himself into a position to leave early and if that’s the case, he’ll probably be selected early.
How he matches up against some potential elite receivers versus Michigan to start the year and against USC to close will be closely watched by NFL scouts.
Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool
Although it seems crazy to view either as high level NFL prospects at this time, they have the unique measurables that would intrigue if they combine that with production. It’s a stretch today, but maybe not down the road. Even if the road more than likely extends to 2020.
Alex Bars and Sam Mustipher
To expect Bars and Mustipher to suddenly be the next Quenton Nelson, Ronnie Stanley, or Zack Martin is unrealistic. Nick Martin might not be out of the question for them, though. Day two for either could happen if they end up playing like they showed during spring ball.
The one thing that this recent draft proved was that NFL teams value interior lineman more than they used to with two others joining Nelson in the first round. That’s a nice carrot to dangle in front of Bars and Mustipher as they head into their final year at Notre Dame.
There are others who could play themselves into NFL selections. The more that do so, the better it will be for Notre Dame’s chances of becoming a contender. They go hand in hand together. Without players ascending with their play and developing their game, the team can’t come close to achieving the ultimate goal.
Others who may not have any intention of leaving early or who can’t jump quite yet have to step up too much like Coney and Love did in 2017. The Notre Dame roster has plenty of talent on it. That college talent has to transcend to talent that projects to the next level in order for the the Irish to excel at this one.