6 Thoughts on a Thursday
Whether it was scheme, lack of execution, or simply getting beat up front, Notre Dame did not establish the run very well in either of their first two games.
They averaged 0.4 yards before contact against Ohio State and 0.7 yards against Marshall. The backs averaged 2.2 yards after contact against OSU and 2.8 against Marshall and those numbers make it obvious that the job they were doing up front was the biggest issue.
The last two games have seen a significant change with the before contact averages going up to 2.4 and 3.0 against Cal and UNC (1.2 and 2.6 after contact). It made a big difference and it gave Notre Dame fans reasons to be a lot more optimistic about the offense going forward.
Yes, North Carolina has an awful defense against the run, but so do four of Notre Dame’s final eight opponents, including BYU. Those four teams (BYU, Stanford, Syracuse, and USC) are all ranked 100th or lower in EPA (expected points added) per rush. They are all included in the “Help, we can’t stop anyone decent from running on us” category with UNC.
I don’t expect the holes to be as big against BYU as they were against UNC, but there’s going to be an opportunity for Notre Dame to control the game against a run defense that doesn’t create negative plays (119th in stuff rate).
Despite their bad start running the football this season, the Irish are 17th in stuff rate on offense. And when you can run efficiently and defenses have to dedicate more bodies to stop it, that’s when things can really open up with play-action. It’s a small sample size, but Drew Pyne is currently the 5th highest rated passer in the country on play-action drop backs according to PFF.
I think there’s a good chance we’re going to go back and look at Notre Dame’s running success this season and judge everything after the Marshall game. That’s partly because of the defenses they are going to play, but mostly because they should continue to execute a lot better as the season progresses.
2. Anytime there’s a close game, the middle eight (the four minutes before and after halftime) can make a big difference.
Look at what happened against UNC when the Irish ran off 24 straight points after the game was tied at 14. BYU had the same kind of deal with Utah State where they won the middle eight 17-3 and pulled away in what was a close game. A similar thing happened the week before against Wyoming where BYU was down by three right before halftime, but then scored 21 straight points to completely flip the game.
This was something that BYU beat writer Jared Lloyd pointed out in his interview with our guy from NBC’s Inside the Irish, Douglas Farmer.
The middle eight against Baylor was pretty much even for BYU and it’s not all that unsurprising that that game went to overtime. The Cougars were dominated in the middle eight by Oregon, though. They were down 10 after missing a field goal attempt and the Ducks scored touchdowns to end the first half and to start the second half. It was game over from there.
I think this will end up being a close game in the fourth quarter and whoever wins that middle eight is likely going to end up winning it.
3. Maybe this isn’t something to worry about too much in the BYU game (their running game hasn’t been good) and maybe we’re seeing what Notre Dame needs to do against the run the last two games compared to the first two, but I have to admit that the advanced stats for Notre Dame’s run defense have been startling.
108th in EPA per rush and 124th in opportunity rate* is ugly.
*(Opportunity rate description via Football Outsiders: the percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job)
Has the run defense been that bad? No, especially not in the last two games. I don’t think those numbers will stay that ugly if they continue to play like they have.
We can go back to the yards before contact to look at the difference between the first two games and the next two. Marshall and Ohio State both averaged 1.7 yards before contact. Cal and North Carolina averaged 0.8 and 0.2 on designed runs.
Those last two numbers are very good. There also is the added context of Ohio State possibly being the best offensive line in the country. Their running game is 1st in opportunity rate, 2nd in stuff rate, and they are 5th in yards per carry.
OSU averaged 4.91 YPC vs Notre Dame and has averaged at least 6.0 YPC vs everyone else they’ve played. The Irish run defense did better than anyone else against an elite running team and that does matter.
Part of the running game is stopping quarterback scrambles as well, though. Most of Cal’s offense in the second half came on Jack Plummer scrambles and Drake Maye had 33-yards rushing on the first drive alone in that game. They did bottle him up after that, but they need to continue to do that this week against BYU quarterback Jaren Hall, who isn’t running as much as he did last year, but he’s plenty capable of burning them as a scrambler if they allow him to.
BYU’s running game hasn’t been good (85th in opportunity rate, 110th in stuff rate) so how well the Irish can stop the run in this game and also what they do to contain Hall as a runner could tell a lot about where things are headed with the run defense.
4. It’s such a weird thing to have had a bye this early in the season when there is so much season left to play.
Four games into the 2021 season, Lorenzo Styles had amassed two targets, Logan Diggs had not played a snap on offense, and Joe Alt was playing tight end.
Four games into the 2019 season, Jamir Jones had played 18 snaps and Braden Lenzy had only played during garbage time.
Four games into the 2018 season, Dexter Williams was just getting off of suspension, Trevor Ruhland was the starting right guard filling in for Alex Bars, and Aaron Banks was still a backup.
Four games into the 2017 season, Te’von Coney was not a starter at linebacker and had only two tackles for loss (he finished with 12.5).
Things can and often do change a lot during the season. That’s exactly why I don’t think anyone should be constantly asking about “Why isn’t (insert young player here) playing?” because the cream eventually rises to the top.
When guys are ready to be factors, they are going to get on the field. Those three freshmen last season are examples of that.
We aren’t talking about Tobias Merriweather or Prince Kollie right now other than people asking why they aren’t playing. The discussions on them could easily change, much like it has with Benjamin Morrison where he is now officially the starter at cornerback.
There will be a player or multiple players who end up being important pieces for Notre Dame in 2022 that haven’t done much in the first four games. It may not be any of the guys who fans are constantly asking about either.
The week after a bye is typically a time for someone to break out or at least flash in a way that earns them opportunities in the future. I’m very curious to see who that might be against BYU.
5. Jaren Hall is a very good quarterback (26th in passer rating) and Notre Dame has already faced two quarterbacks who are in the top-four in passer rating (CJ Stroud and Drake Maye). Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader is eighth and USC quarterback Caleb Williams is 25th. Maye is the only one of them that hadn’t started a game before the 2022 season.
Marshall quarterback Henry Colombi started games for Utah State and Texas Tech. Cal quarterback Jack Plummer started at Purdue. Tanner McKee, DJ Uiagalelei, and Phil Jurkovec are returning starters at their respective programs. Navy returned a starter at quarterback as well. The only team Notre Dame will face this year, other than Maye at UNC, that doesn’t have a quarterback with starting experience before this season is UNLV.
Maybe it’s the way college football is now with the transfer portal giving every program a chance to upgrade at the position. Cal, Marshall, and USC did. Maybe it’s just bad luck that it worked out this way for the Irish this season.
The first four quarterbacks Notre Dame has faced have thrown for 51 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. The rest of the quarterbacks they are projected to face have thrown 73 against 17 interception. Six of those interceptions are from Jurkovec.
It’s not like all of these quarterbacks are elite, though a few of them are. It’s more that most of them have the kind of experience where they might throw the ball away or hit their checkdown rather than make a risky decision.
In four games with opposing quarterbacks attempting 124 passes against them, there have only been four turnover worthy throws. That’s with the Irish sacking the quarterback nine times and generating over a 45% pressure rate in the last two games as well.
There are eight regular season games left and I’m sure Notre Dame will start creating more turnovers, but they won’t be getting much help from playing so many experienced quarterbacks.
6. There are plenty of reasons why Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t been explosive this season, but a lot of it has to do with personnel.
Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne are a combined 4 for 13 on deep passes. Michael Mayer has caught 6 of 9 on contested catch targets. The rest of the team is 5 of 16, which translates to 31.3% on 50/50 balls.
Lorenzo Styles is the only receiver on the team with two receptions of 30-yards or more. He’s also the only receiver who has been a threat after the catch.
The offense lacks dynamic playmakers. Maybe they’ll have a couple of receivers who will step up over the course of the season, but the best bet is having more production like what we saw from Audric Estime, Chris Tyree, and Logan Diggs against North Carolina.
I’m not saying that there will be more days and nights filled with 100 total yards for all three of them, but the big plays from them were the catalyst for offensive success in both of Notre Dame’s wins.
It may be Estime against BYU. It may be Tyree and Diggs the week after that. The most likely scenario for this offense to produce more explosive plays is Styles continuing to get better and those three backs leading the way.
These are the players Notre Dame has this season. The ceiling of the offense is going to depend on the continued improvement of the offensive line and those four players complimenting the greatness of Mayer.
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