6 Thoughts on a Thursday
The 2015 season is, for the most part, fondly remembered by Notre Dame fans. Even if the disappointment of the three losses lingered over the excitement of the 10 wins, there were plenty of highlights with star performances from Will Fuller, Jaylon Smith, Sheldon Day, and Ronnie Stanley.
In terms of top end talent, it was right up there with the best any Brian Kelly team had to offer. (The depth on the other hand…)
The 2015 season was the last time Notre Dame played most of the season with their backup quarterback. After a great performance against Texas, Malik Zaire broke his ankle in the second game against Virginia. DeShone Kizer was inserted into the lineup, he ended up throwing the game-winning touchdown, and had the kind of season that made you forget that he was supposed to not only be the backup that year, but wasn’t seen as a backup that fans had much confidence in.
He probably overachieved and was propped up a bit by all of the talent that surrounded him. This season’s backup turned starter, Drew Pyne, doesn’t have a comparable supporting cast. He’s also not as talented as Kizer was.
Drew Pyne is Drew Pyne. You can win games with him at quarterback. They are 3-1 after all with him as a starter. But he’s also someone that doesn’t have legions of fans proclaiming him as someone who can emerge as more than a backup. He’s had two really good games and two where he played like a replacement level player (or worse).
Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei played a lot worse in 2021 than Pyne is playing now. He had six starts where his completion percentage was under 50%. He had seven games where his yards per attempt were below 6.0. Their offense was dreadful. They ended up ranked 79th in OF+.
Even with their starter playing that bad, Clemson still managed to win 10 games. They clearly didn’t win because of the offense or the quarterback, but they had enough surrounding talent to carry them (Will Shipley at running back, a defense that finished 3rd in DF+).
Notre Dame doesn’t have that kind of talent this season, which is why they aren’t going to win 10 games.
The Irish are going to beat UNLV this weekend. They should beat Navy and Boston College as well. It’s Syracuse, Clemson, and USC where it’s difficult to feel confident in Notre Dame winning unless
Pyne is a lot more consistent and the help he gets, from the coaching staff as much as the other players, can propel the team to wins when they’ll most likely be picked to lose.
When Zaire got hurt, no one knew what to expect from Kizer. It didn’t take that long for people to realize that Kizer was much better than a typical backup. Since Tyler Buchner got hurt, it’s been a roller coaster with Pyne and things will likely rise up again, but everyone should buckle up for the ride ahead.
2. The Irish have dropped all the way to 61st in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking on offense) and are 73rd in points per drive. If the offense was performing at an above average level, there is no doubt they’d be 5-1.
This doesn’t excuse the defense for their shortcomings this year, but they’re 18th in DF+, 27th in points per drive, and the numbers against Power 5 opponents would have them ranked 19th in yards per play, 37th in yards per attempt, and 13th in yards per carry.
That should be good enough to win. It’s just not with how the offense has played.
There’s a lot the defense can do better to help the team, starting with being better on 3rd down and in the red zone. They’ll have to be better if they want to upset Clemson or USC.
3. It’s pretty much impossible to have a great defense without any All-American candidates. The Irish have none at the moment. We’re halfway through the season and the biggest red flag for me is that none of the players who were expected to make the leap or simply continue to be very good in the back seven have done so other than TaRiq Bracy.
Brandon Joseph, Cam Hart, and Marist Liufau were players that many thought would be impact players and it’s not happened with any of them. If it was just one player underachieving, then it would be easy to say it’s on the player. The fact that there are so many players on defense who aren’t even playing up to the level they were last year means that coaching has to be a big part of it.
This defense doesn’t have anywhere close to the talent Notre Dame had in 2018 or 2019. There were 11 players who played on those two defenses who became NFL Draft picks. That doesn’t even include some very productive players like Te’von Coney, Jalen Elliott, Jamir Jones, Kurt Hinish, and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa.
There are still plenty of guys who are playing now that made plays in 2021 who aren’t making plays in 2022. The staff needs to be asking why that is because even if there aren’t going to be a ton of high NFL Draft picks from this current defense, there are plenty of them who showed they can be good college football players. Outside of Bracy and maybe DJ Brown, there isn’t a returning player at linebacker or defensive back that I think has played better than they did last season.
4. I think it’s different on the defensive line. Rylie Mills has improved a lot, especially against the run. Howard Cross is better. Gabriel Rubio looked like he might need a lot more time to be able to compete last year and he’s much better. I think Justin Ademilola and NaNa Osafo-Mensah are much better than they were last year too.
I don’t know if I’d say Jayson Ademilola and Isaiah Foskey have played better than they did last year, but I don’t think they have looked worse.
With Foskey, I think some of the criticism of him has been unfair. Yes, his sack numbers are down, but his pressure numbers are better. He’s up from 14.4% to 14.9% overall in pass rush win percentage according to PFF and his 25.5% in true pass sets (no screens, play-action, or quick game) is up from 20.5% last season. When that’s factored in with him getting more attention this season (more chip blocks and double teams) then it looks even more impressive.
I think the sacks will come, especially if they aren’t playing many more teams like Stanford that had only four true pass sets. I also think that he could be getting more help if the Irish were running more pass rush games/stunts to help out all of the defensive linemen.
5. When a quarterback is struggling and teams are loading up the box, I’ve always liked attacking the perimeter with screens and we haven’t seen enough of that this season from the Notre Dame offense. These are typically simple reads and easier throws for the quarterback and these types of plays worked well for the Irish last season.
Lorenzo Styles was a weapon on these and had a big play against USC and North Carolina.
Both of these are off of RPOs.
Styles is an obvious choice to get more touches on these plays, but this is also another way to get Chris Tyree chances in the open field. When they motion him out of the backfield when they are in 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end), why not have him be the guy who is running this bubble screen? Or even Tobias Merriweather?
Notre Dame did such a good job with RPOs at the end of last season, specifically attacking the perimeter. To me, this feels like something that could help Pyne.
6. Speaking of Merriweather, he’s one guy who could be someone who helps elevate the offense in the second half of the season. I know it was only one play, but even if he only adds a few more of those, that would be huge.
Styles is the only other player on the team with a reception of over 40 yards and this happened on the first play of scrimmage against Ohio State. No matter what happens with wins and losses over these next six games, I think it’s important for there to be a handful of players who step up and sprinkle in some hope for the future.
This can’t be a season where Notre Dame comes out of it and they leave with more questions than answers. There has to be some forward momentum with some players to show they are going to be better in 2023. No one wants to go into an offseason without that.
It doesn’t have to be freshmen like Merriweather or Ben Morrison. It doesn’t even have to be a young player like Prince Kollie. We have to see more development from the roster as a whole so the approach in the spring isn’t all about the guys who redshirted or the early enrollees.
Who can help elevate the team in the second half of this year and then be someone who they can rely on in 2023? The greater the number that can be included in the answer to this question, the better every Notre Dame fan will feel about things heading into the offseason.
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